January 19, 1976: The Iowa Caucuses Matter for the 1st Time

January 19, 1976, 50 years ago: The Iowa Caucuses are held. They had been held for the 1st time in 1972, but had little bearing on the Presidential election. This time, they had a rather large bearing on the election.

They were first held on January 24, 1972. Incumbent President Richard Nixon was unopposed on the Republican side. On the Democratic side, Senator Edmund S. Muskie of Maine won 36 percent of the vote. Senator George McGovern won 23 percent, but since Iowa is right next-door to his home State of South Dakota, this was not seen as all that odd, or as a bad sign for Muskie, the 1968 Vice Presidential nominee and the front-runner in the polls coming into this vote.

In 1975, having served 1 term, 4 years, as Governor of Georgia, Jimmy Carter had announced his candidacy for President. Before he did, he told his mother, "Mama, I'm running for President." Known to the family as "Miss Lillian," she said, "President of what?"

He had released a campaign biography, titled Why Not the Best? And yet, his career to that point did not suggest that he was the best possible candidate:

* 1962: He made his 1st run for office, at age 37, for the State Senate in Georgia. He lost. He asked for a recount. He got it. As it turned out, the election had been stolen. With the recount, he won.

* 1966: He did not run for a 2nd term. Instead, ran for the Democratic nomination for Governor, as a pro-civil rights candidate against a member of the segregationist establishment, Lester Maddox. He lost.

* 1970: He ran for Governor again. He won. He was generally considered to be a good Governor. At the time, the Constitution of the State of Georgia did not allow a Governor to serve a 2nd consecutive term.

That was it. But he thought that, in the wake of Vietnam and Watergate, he could appeal to Americans as a decent and honest man with a record that, however brief, backed that up, despite having almost no name recognition. He was being called, "Jimmy Who?"

He entered the Iowa Caucuses, the earliest contest in the nominating schedule. Most of the candidates ignored them, preferring to concentrate on the New Hampshire Primary, to be held on February 24. New Hampshire had mattered in the nominating process since 1952.

Carter thought that "retail politics," which had helped him in his run for Governor of a mostly-farm State, would help him in Iowa. He met people in small towns throughout Iowa's 99 Counties, used his experience as a farmer (peanuts), but also as a "small businessman," to show the locals that he knew what he was talking about. He even went on a cooking show on a Des Moines TV station.

And, with the experiences of Presidents Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon in Vietnam, and Nixon in Watergate, he had a message which proved to be more powerful than anyone had imagined: "I will never lie to you."

Not running for President, although they would have had some support if they had: Senators Muskie, McGovern, Hubert Humphrey of Minnesota (former Vice President, 1968 Presidential nominee, and runner-up in 1972) and Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts.

In the race, but not even entering the Caucuses, were Governors George Wallace of Alabama, Terry Sanford of North Carolina, Milton Shapp of Pennsylvania and Jerry Brown of California; and Senators Robert Byrd of West Virginia, Lloyd Bentsen of Texas, and Frank Church of Idaho.

Those who did enter: Carter; Senators Henry "Scoop" Jackson of Washington, Fred Harris of Oklahoma and Birch Bayh of Indiana; Representative Morris "Mo" Udall of Arizona; and former Ambassador Sargent Shriver (brother-in-law of the Kennedys, and the 1972 Democratic nominee for Vice President). Going in, the favorites -- for these caucuses, if not for the nomination overall -- were Bayh and Harris, due to being from Midwestern farm States.

Who won the 1976 Iowa Democratic Caucuses? Officially, no one: "Unpledged" led all comers with 39 percent of the vote. That surprised very few people. But the actual candidate with the most votes, 27.5 percent, turned out to be Carter. He was followed by Bayh, 13.2; Harris, 9.9; Udall, 6.0; Shriver, 3.3; and Jackson, 1.1.

The result stunned people, who thought that Carter was banking on something virtually meaningless. He gave it meaning. This momentum carried him through New Hampshire, where he edged Udall, 27 percent to 22. Carter winning Florida, a Southern State, on March 9 didn't surprise many people; but winning Illinois, a big Midwestern State with a big city, a week later, did.

Jackson ended up winning New York, riding the fact that he was the most vocal Democrat in the Senate in support of Israel, giving him a hammerlock on New York City's Jewish vote. But it didn't help him much outside New York State, and Carter won pretty much every other State of consequence. He ended up getting 74 percent of the Delegates on the 1st ballot at the Democratic Convention in New York.

On January 20, 1977, 1 year and 1 day after showing people what the Iowa Caucuses could do for a Presidential candidate, James Earle Carter Jr. was inaugurated as the 39th President of the United States.

Most people outside Iowa don't pay attention to the State for most of 4 years -- unless they're big fans of college football or wrestling -- and then do so only because of the Caucuses. A candidate entering them has to hear an inordinate amount of information about farming, especially corn, and how it can be converted into ethanol to fuel cars. The politics-themed TV show The West Wing made a point of this in its 2005 episode "King Corn."

Democrats tend to win in Iowa by pointing out that they're better for farmers than the Republicans. Republicans tend to win in Iowa by appealing to the State's hardcore right-wing evangelicals.

As this chart shows, the Iowa Caucuses have a better record in predicting Democratic nominees than they do in predicting Republican nominees. But, as it also shows, for both parties come the general election, it's better to have won the nomination without winning in Iowa.

Note that, in 1992, Senator Tom Harkin won on the Democratic side, because he was from Iowa, and every other Democrat had accepted his overwhelming popularity there and given up on the State, and concentrated on the New Hampshire Primary.