Among active Major League Baseball players, who will -- and who should -- eventually be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame?
Given that Clayton Kershaw, despite his choice to play in the upcoming World Baseball Classic, is officially retired, the only active players whose career statistics put them already there are Max Scherzer (on the left in the photo above) and Justin Verlander (on the right).
Giancarlo Stanton's only qualification is his career home run total, so he'll probably have to get to 500 to get in. Two more healthy seasons will do it -- emphasis on "healthy."
Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Nolan Arenado are two good years away. No, Judge is not there yet. No, Trout is not a "first-ballot Hall-of-Famer," or a HOFer at all. Neither is Harper, neither is Arenado.
Career hits: Harper, 1,801; Trout, 1,754; Judge 1,205. Home runs: Trout, 404; Judge, 368; Harper, 363. Gold Gloves: None for any of them. Judge has been mostly a right fielder; Trout, a center fielder; Harper, a right fielder in his 20s and a 1st baseman in his 30s.
Arenado has a better case: 1,921 hits, 353 of them home runs, and he's a 3rd baseman. A 3rd baseman, shortstop, 2nd baseman or catcher with his stats, or Judge's, or Trout's, or Harper's would probably get in. An outfielder or a 1st baseman does not.
Freddie Freeman, Manny Machado and Paul Goldschmidt are three good years away.
Shohei Ohtani (if he can stay healthy), Gerrit Cole (ditto), Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor are about five good years away. Chris Sale also needs 5, and given that he's 36 years old, he's not going to make it. José Ramirez is helped by the fact that he's a 3rd baseman, but he's a long way off.
Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel are harder to figure, simply because they're relievers, and the standards for relievers getting in haven't really been set. But both have more saves than Billy Wagner, and both have better postseason records than he does. They each have a good chance.
Aroldis Chapman might be the least reliable relief pitcher of all time, especially in postseason play. But the best argument for him is that Wagner, the other major contender for that title, is in.
Andrew McCutchen won't make it. Neither will Blake Snell: He's basically Cliff Lee, a lefty pitcher with 2 great seasons and the rest ordinary.
Met fans will tell you that Jacob deGrom will get in. No: His candidacy is a joke: He's 37 and has 96 career wins. Babe Ruth had 94 career wins, and he only pitched 31 innings past his 25th birthday. Ohtani, for all his time spent away from the mound, might end up with more wins than deGrom. Ron Guidry was a better pitcher than peak deGrom, and he has 170 wins, and hardly anybody suggests he should be in the Hall. If Guidry with 170 doesn't get in, anyone suggesting deGrom with 96 should get in needs to be told, "Go away, you're wasting everybody's time."
José Altuve will probably get in, but should be disqualified as a known cheater.
For younger stars, such as Ronald Acuña Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cal Raleigh and Elly De La Cruz, it is way too soon to tell. Things can happen. Ask George Foster. Ask Fred Lynn. Ask Eric Davis. Ask Ryan Howard.
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