Analyzing the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame Vote

I should have done this 2 days ago, right after it happened. But I'm still in the process of moving. The old condo has been cleared out. The new one is still being assembled.

At any rate:

Andruw Jones has been elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, New York. Well-deserved.

Carlos Beltrán has also been elected. Statistically, this was a justifiable choice. But he was a fully-cheating member of the 2017 Houston Astros, and because of that, he should not have been elected -- not now, and not ever.

Here is how the Baseball Writers Association of America voted, with 75 percent being necessary for election:

Carlos Beltrán: 358 votes, 84.2% (4th year on the ballot)

Andruw Jones: 333 votes 78.4% (9th)
Chase Utley: 251 votes, 59.1% (3rd)
Andy Pettitte: 206 votes, 48.5% (8th)
Félix Hernández: 196 votes, 46.1% (2nd)
Alex Rodriguez: 170 votes, 40% (5th)
Manny Ramírez: 165 votes, 38.8% (10th)
Bobby Abreu: 131 votes 30.8% (7th)
Jimmy Rollins: 108 votes, 25.4% (5th)
Cole Hamels: 101 votes, 23.8% (1st)
Dustin Pedroia: 88 votes, 20.7% (2nd)
Mark Buehrle: 85 votes, 20% (6th)
Omar Vizquel: 78 votes, 18.4% (9th)
David Wright: 63 votes, 14.8% (3rd)
Francisco Rodríguez: 50 votes, 11.8% (4th)
Torii Hunter: 37 votes, 8.7% (6th)
Ryan Braun: 15 votes, 3.5% (1st)
Edwin Encarnación: 6 votes, 1.4% (1st)
Shin-Soo Choo: 3 votes, 0.7% (1st)
Matt Kemp: 2 votes, 0.5% (1st)
Hunter Pence: 2 votes, 0.5% (1st)
Rick Porcello: 2 votes, 0.5% (1st)
Alex Gordon: 1 vote, 0.2% (1st)
Nick Markakis: 1 vote, 0.2% (1st)
Gio Gonzalez: 0 votes, 0% (1st)
Howie Kendrick: 0 votes, 0% (1st)

Daniel Murphy: 0 votes, 0% (1st)

Players receiving less than 5% are dropped from future BBWAA ballots. So are players who have missed for 10 years, like Manny.

Statistically, both Jones and Beltrán were justifiable selections. But Beltrán cheated.

Jones, a native of Curaçao, a country in the Caribbean Sea but part of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, joins Bert Blyleven, born in Zeist but raised in Michigan, as the 2nd native of the Netherlands in the Hall of Fame.

Beltrán is the 5th native of Puerto Rico elected. He follows Roberto Clemente, Orlando Cepeda, Roberto Alomar and Iván Rodríguez -- another cheater, although of a different kind.

Both Jones (2011-12) and Beltrán (2014-16) played for the Yankees near the ends of their careers. Beltrán also played for the Mets (2005-11), and, in 2012, was voted the center fielder voted onto their 50th Anniversary Team by their fans, ignoring Tommie Agee, Mookie Wilson and Lenny Dykstra -- and overlooking Beltrán leaving his bat on his shoulder to take a called strike 3 for the last out in Game 7 of the 2006 National League Championship Series.

That was embarrassing -- but not scandalous, like what he did with the Astros, including against the Yankees, 11 years later.

What about the players not selected? Which of them deserved election? Let's look at the hitters first:

If you had told me after the 2011 NLCS, by which point the Philadelphia Phillies had won 5 straight NL Eastern Division titles, back-to-back Pennants, and the 2008 World Series, that they would have none of their players elected to the Hall of Fame, I wouldn't have believed it. Yet neither 2nd baseman Chase Utley, nor shortstop Jimmy Rollins, nor 1st baseman Ryan Howard, nor pitcher Cole Hamels has been elected.

Howard failed to get 5 percent in his 1st time on the ballot, in 2022, and dropped off, and will have to wait for whatever they're calling the Veterans Committee now. Hamels got nearly 24 percent this time, his 1st time, but he really doesn't have the career stats. Rollins was in his 5th year, and got 25 percent, but he doesn't have them, either, even when we factor in the fact that he was a shortstop.

Alex Rodriguez was in his 5th year, getting 40 percent. Manny Ramirez was in his 10th and final season, getting 38 percent. Ryan Braun was in his 1st year, and got 3.5 percent, so he's off the ballot anyway. All 3 were caught using steroids, so they shouldn't be in anyway.

Though it must be said again: Either the use of performance-enhancing drugs matters to you, or it doesn't. If it does, then no player who did it should be in, and David Ortiz never should have gotten in. If it doesn't, then A-Rod and Manny absolutely should be in. Because Manny was a better hitter than "Big Papi," and A-Rod was better than either one of them, at every facet of baseball. It matters to me, and I believe none should ever get in, and Ortiz should be kicked out. In Manny's case, it's worse: He had the talent to excel without using steroids, but he used them, anyway. That makes it worse.

Utley was a 2nd baseman, which must be factored in. He got 59 percent this time, his 3rd year on the ballot. Given that there will be very few 1st-timers on the ballot next year who look likely to be elected, he may have a good chance. But, with 1,884 hits, 259 of them home runs, and 6 All-Star Game berths just isn't enough. Baserunning helps him, but not much. (Shut up, Met fans. That incident has nothing to do with it.) Same with fielding: He was a good fielder, but not a great one, and never got a Gold Glove. I wouldn't mind if he got in, but I wouldn't vote for him myself.

Bobby Abreu got 31 percent. 2,470 hits and 288 home runs is not enough for a right fielder. 400 stolen bases and 1 Gold Glove help, but not enough. I like him, but he shouldn't go in.

Dustin Pedroia got 2 percent. A .299 batting average, 1,805 hits and 140 home runs is not enough for anyone, not even a 2nd baseman. Baserunning doesn't help him. Fielding does, with 4 Gold Gloves, but not enough.

Omar Vizquel got 18 percent, in his 9th and next-to-last year on the ballot. He got 2,877 hits, stole 404 bases, and won 11 Gold Gloves. Based on that, he should be an easy Yes. But he has been accused of domestic abuse against his ex-wife and sexual harassment of a batboy. That cloud over him has kept BBWAA voters from electing him. He may have to wait for the charges to drift into the background, and for the Veterans Committee to elect him.

David Wright is the Mets' all-time leader in hits, with 1,777. He hit 242 home runs, not a bad total for a 3rd baseman. He made 7 All-Star Games. He won 2 Gold Gloves. Nice career. Insufficient career stats. Injuries may have prevented him from being elected. This was his 3rd year on the ballot, and he didn't break 15 percent. He will never get in.

Torii Hunter got 8 percent. 2,452 hits, including 353 home runs. Not enough for a center fielder. 5 All-Star Games, 9 Gold Gloves. Nice career. This was his 6th year on the ballot. Maybe he'll eventually get in through the Veterans Committee, but I doubt it.

Edwin Encarnación drooped off the ballot with just 6 votes. He hit 424 home runs. He was a designated hitter, whose most common actual position was 1st base. I don't think the Veterans Committee will elect him.

Shin-Soo Choo got 3 votes, Matt Kemp and Hunter Pence 2 each, Alex Gordon and Nick Markakis 1 each; and Howie Kendrick and Daniel Murphy got none. None of these deserved much more than the votes they actually got.

Now, for the pitchers:

Andy Pettitte, Yankee hero, got 48 percent in his 8th year on the ballot. Statistically, he is an easy choice. But the cloud of his admission to a brief HGH use to come back from an injury in 2002 -- a season in which the Yankees didn't even win the Pennant -- hangs over him. With Ortiz in the Hall, keeping Pettitte out is, as George Carlin would say, just fuckin' stupid.

Félix Hernández got 46 percent in his 2nd year. 169-136? Not good enough. 2,524 strikeouts? Here's a list of all the pitchers with at least that many K's, eligible for the Hall, who are not in: Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Mickey Lolich, Frank Tanana, David Cone, Chuck Finley, Cole Hamels, Jerry Koosman, Javier Vázquez and Bartolo Colón. Clemens is believed to have used steroids, though it's never been proven. Colón got caught. The rest? Only Schilling and Cone get much support. "King" Félix? Only Seattle Mariner fans take that title seriously. He does not deserve election to the Hall of Fame -- and that's on merit.

Mark Buehrle got 20 percent. 214-160? 1,870 strikeouts? No.

Francisco Rodríguez got 11 percent. 437 saves, including a single-season record of 62. Both of those figures stand out. The problem is, there are so fewer relievers in the Hall that we don't really know what it takes for a reliever to get in. But if Billy Wagner is in, which is rather dubious, then maybe K-Rod deserves a stronger look.

Rick Porcello got 2 votes, Gio Gonzalez none. Neither ever gets in.

At any rate, Jones and Beltrán will join Veterans Committee honoree Jeff Kent in the Hall this Summer.