From The Moment with Katy Tur, October 2, 2026
According to polling presented on MS Now yesterday, on The Moment with Katy Tur, by Tur, Trump is at 82 percent disapproval on the issue of the cost of living. That's on one issue, not overall.
In contrast, the following Presidents were at the following peak levels of disapproval on the following issues: Lyndon Johnson on the Vietnam War, 57; Richard Nixon on the Watergate scandal, 71; Jimmy Carter on the economy overall, 74; George W. Bush on the economy overall, 77, and on the Iraq War, 70; and Joe Biden on the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, 62.
Not listed in that graphic, apparently because they didn't have as much as 57 percent on any particular issue, which I, having lived through every President since Nixon, find hard to believe: Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.
So I got curious: When were Presidents at their most popular, overall; and least? Here's the figures I found, with sources listed in the link, starting in the modern era:
* Franklin D. Roosevelt: Highest: 84 percent in a poll ending January 13, 1942, in the wake of the attack on Pearl Harbor, and the country rallying around itself, its troops, and its President; Lowest, 48, August 24, 1939, after the 1937-38 "Roosevelt Recession," but before the start of World War II.
* Harry S Truman: Highest: 87, June 5, 1945, in the wake of V-E Day in the closing days of World War II; Lowest, 22, February 14, 1952, at the depth of the Korean War, and with some Democratic scandals that would seem like penny-ante stuff by the time of Watergate.
* Dwight D. Eisenhower: Highest: 78, November 22, 1955, after recovering from his heart attack 2 months earlier; Lowest, 48, April 1, 1958, at the depth of the worst recession the country had seen since the end of the Great Depression, but one that would be surpassed many times starting in 1973.
* John F. Kennedy: Highest: 83, May 3, 1961, ironically in the wake of the failed Bay of Pigs operation, with people appreciating that he took full responsibility for it, instead of blaming Ike, the CIA, or anybody else; Lowest, 56, September 17, 1963, after he'd lost much of the South with his civil rights bill, but he was still personally popular.
* Lyndon B. Johnson: Highest, 80, March 5, 1964, in the wake of the JFK assassination and his promise of a War On Poverty; Lowest, 35, August 12, 1968, with the Vietnam War and race riots both seeming to have no end in sight.
* Richard Nixon: Highest, 70, February 15, 1973, after he'd won a 2nd term and "ended the Vietnam War," but before Watergate emerged as an issue; Lowest, 23, January 7, 1974, oddly not right before he resigned.
* Gerald Ford: Highest, 71, August 19, 1974, right after he'd replaced Nixon and given a unifying "not an Inaugural Address"; Lowest, 37, January 13, 1975, after his pardon of Nixon, and with the recession Nixon dumped in his lap having had inflation added to it.
* Jimmy Carter: Highest, 75, March 21, 1977, in his 1st 100 days; Lowest, 28, July 2, 1979, oddly, right before his "Crisis of Confidence" speech, before the Iran Hostage Crisis, the OPEC moves raising gas prices, the accompanying inflation with everything else, or the high interest rates.
* Ronald Reagan: Highest, 68, May 11, 1981, after both his 1st 100 days and his recovering from an assassination attempt; Lowest, 35, January 31, 1983, with unemployment at 11 percent, it's highest non-COVID point since the end of the Great Depression.
* George H.W. Bush: Highest, 89, March 3, 1991, just as he ended the Persian Gulf War; Lowest, 29, August 2, 1992, with the deepest recession yet since the end of the Great Depression, and with the Democrats having just had a successful Convention, but before his Party's Convention made things worse.
So far, all of these polls were by the Gallup Organization. These were not, with one exception:
* Bill Clinton: Highest, 73, by CBS News and The New York Times, January 27, 1998, 6 days after the Monica Lewinsky scandal broke, a day after his finger-wagging denial of the charges, and right after his State of the Union Address, so at a low point in his Administration, he was at his most popular; Lowest, 36, by Time magazine and CNN, May 27, 1993, right after his 1st 100 days, which had a few public-relations missepts.
* George W. Bush: Highest, 92, by ABC News, October 9, 2001, right after he'd begun bombing Afghanistan in retaliation for the 9/11 attacks; Lowest, 19, by the American Research Group, February 19, 2008, with a recession getting bad and the Iraq War having no end in sight, even though things would get much worse economically.
* Barack Obama: Highest, 76, by CNN, February 8, 2009, right after his Inauguration; Lowest, 37, by Gallup, September 11, 2011, 4 months after he killed Osama bin Laden, after Republicans had started running against him, including airing TV commercials against him, but before the 2012 Primaries started, and he wasn't airing his own ads yet.
* Joe Biden: Highest, 63, by the Associated Press, May 3, 2021, around the end of his 1st 100 days; Lowest, 31, by Quinnipiac University, July 18, 2022, around the time that inflation got the highest under him.
* Donald Trump, and these are the extremes for both of his terms combined, so far: Highest, 49, by McLaughlin & Associates, March 24, 2019, before his 1st impeachment, COVID, and the COVID-induced recession; Lowest, 29, Pew Research, January 12, 2021, after the January 6 insurrection, and right before his 2nd impeachment.
Therefore, they can be ranked as follows:
Highest: Dubya Bush 92, Daddy Bush 89, Truman 87, FDR 84, JFK 83, LBJ 80, Ike 78, Obama 76, Carter 75, Clinton 73, Ford 71, Nixon 70, Reagan 68, Biden 63, Trump 49. Surprise: Reagan was never as popular as Carter or Clinton at his peak, and Trump has never had a majority.
Lowest: JFK 56, FDR 48, Ike 48, Obama 37, Ford 37, Clinton 36, LBJ 35, Reagan 35, Biden 31, Daddy Bush 29, Trump 29, Carter 28, Nixon 23, Truman 22, Dubya Bush 19. Another surprise: LBJ and Clinton never got as low as Reagan; but Truman was lower than all of them except Dubya.
How about their average approval rating? These are all from Gallup, and they didn't list FDR's: JFK 70.1, Ike 65.0, Daddy Bush 60.9, LBJ 55.1, Clinton 55.1, Reagan 52.8, Dubya Bush 49.4, Nixon 49.0, Obama 47.9, Ford 47.2, Carter 45.5, Truman 45.4, Biden 42.2, Trump 41.1.
Think about that: Not only is Trump's the lowest, but even with him, and (as Rush Limbaugh would have said about Clinton) his willing accomplices in the media, bad-mouthing Biden for 5 years straight (counting the 2020 campaign), Biden's average was still higher than Trump's.
What does this mean? Basically, it means that there are certain rules to being President:
* Don't have a "Depression." Herbert Hoover, the last President before this list, had THE one. Nixon had one. Ford suffered for it, too. Carter was seen as having one, but it wasn't one. Reagan had one. Both Bushes had one. Biden was seen as having one, but it wasn't one. Trump is now on his 2nd.
* Don't have a "Vietnam." LBJ had one. Carter had won, in Iran. Reagan got out of one, in Lebanon. Dubya had one, in Iraq. Biden sort-of had one, in Afghanistan, although it was based on a Trump policy, which he didn't change. Trump now has one, in Iran.
* Don't have a Watergate. Truman sort-of had one, the various "corruption" scandals in his Administration. Nixon had THE one. Ford suffered for it, too. Reagan had one, Iran-Contra, but survived it. Clinton didn't have one, not that Republicans didn't try to say he had several. Dubya had one, the Scooter Libby vs. Valerie Plame story. Trump had one, getting impeached over trying to blackmail Ukraine.
* Don't screw up a hurricane. Nixon and Daddy Bush had particularly bad ones in both Year 1 and Year 4, but each responded properly, and while both had their Presidencies end earlier than they would have liked, their hurricane responses had nothing to do with it. Dubya Bush had the worst one in the modern era, and it basically ended his "9/11 untouchability," before his "Vietnam" could make things worse. Obama had one just a few days before voters had to decide whether to re-elect him, but he handled it right, though he probably would have won the most-affected States anyway. Trump screwed up a hurricane in Year 1, and hardly anybody even remembers that now, because he's done so many other horrible things.
* Don't screw up a pandemic. So far, only 4 Presidents have faced this problem. In 1918, Woodrow Wilson put up measures to fight the Spanish Flu, and we may never know how many people those measures saved. Obama faced Ebola in 2014, and his measures meant that literally no Americans died from it, and just one person on American soil, a visiting Liberian. The Obama Administration "wrote a pandemic playbook," because they knew something like that would happen someday, and we had to be prepared. Trump threw it out, because it was "written" by a black man. The result was the estimation that about 70 percent of the people who died from COVID wouldn't have if Trump had kept and followed the playbook. Biden was left to deal with the aftermath, and handled it as well as could have been hoped by that point.
So that's 5 rules. And Trump has broken them all. But only the "Depression" and the "Vietnam" seem to have hurt him in this 2nd term.
These polling averages also suggest that there will always be a core group that will support either party, no matter what; and a larger mass of people in between who are willing to change their minds to adjust to changing circumstances, and who do, whether the President or the media like it or not.
It's also worth noting that, once you take out FDR's 2 extra terms, most Presidents that managed to win a 2nd (or 1st full) term averaged better polling in their 1st term than in their 2nd. The exceptions, so far, have been Reagan, Clinton and Obama.
But now, as Year 6 of his Presidency is moving into its latter stages, and he is almost halfway through the 2nd term he won on the basis of fear of immigrants, inflation, and the issue of war & peace, Trump is facing blowback on the latter 2 issues, from people who had been his people all the way.
It is not enough to make them call their Congressmen and ask for his 3rd impeachment. It is not enough to make them call their Senators and ask for his conviction and removal through an impeachment trial. It is certainly not enough to make enough Republican Senators, plus Democrat John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, join every other Democratic Senator to make 67, enough to remove him.
But it might become enough to make supporters of his, who know he's not literally on the ballot in the elections to be held on November 3, either vote Democratic for the first time in who-knows-how-long-if-ever, or stay home, and lead to big Democratic victories.
Because now, Trump's policies are directly hurting them. And it's been almost 2 years: Blaming a President who hasn't been in office in that time, or the Democrats who don't hold Congressional majorities and are blocked from making policy, won't work. This is on him, and it is on his Party.
And if enough Republicans lose for the ones that are left to blame him for their new minority status, that might be enough to shake his 34-Senator firewall. And, instead of a literal wall he built that does little to keep immigrants from entering the country, it may just be that figurative wall collapsing that ends his Presidency.
Unless, of course, his health catches up to him first.
No comments:
Post a Comment