Top 5 Reasons You Can't Blame Theodore Roosevelt for Running for President Again in 1912

With tomorrow being Election Day, I'm going to take all these "Top 5 Reasons You Can't Blame" entries for the various elections out of their usual sequence, and post them all today -- probably setting a record for most posts to this blog in a single day.

November 5, 1912: Woodrow Wilson is elected the 28th President of the United States. The Governor of New Jersey and the former President of Princeton University, he remains the only New Jersey-based politician ever to become President, although he was born in Virginia and raised in Georgia and South Carolina.

He wins because the Republican Party is split between the conservative wing, led by incumbent President William Howard Taft, and the progressive wing, led by former President Theodore Roosevelt, who believes that Taft and his allies have betrayed what he tried to do from 1901 to 1909.

It's actually a 4-way race, also including the Socialist Party nominee, labor union leader Eugene V. Debs. In the popular vote, it's Wilson 6.3 million, Roosevelt 4.1 million, Taft 3.5 million, and Debs 901,551. (Debs would slightly top that total when he ran while in prison in 1920, but with a lower percentage of the vote.) In popular vote percentage, it's Wilson 41.8, Roosevelt 27.4, Taft 23.2, Debs 6.0 -- meaning that, combined, the 2 Republicans got 50.6 percent, a majority, making Wilson a plurality President.

But it's Electoral Votes that matter. Wilson won 435, Roosevelt 88 (winning Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Washington, and 11 of the 13 then available in California), Taft 8 (winning only Utah and Vermont). Debs won 2 Counties in Minnesota and 1 in North Dakota, but no States). Wilson won 40 of the 48 States then in the Union -- New Mexico and Arizona having gained Statehood that very year, and voting for President for the 1st time.

Had the votes for TR and the votes for Taft been combined in each State, Wilson would have won Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia -- 13 States, all of them Southern, for a total of 149 Electoral Votes, while the Republican nominee would have won 382. But Taft's conservatism and TR's ego split the GOP, and Wilson got in.

Top 5 Reasons You Can't Blame Theodore Roosevelt for Running for President Again in 1912

5. He Was Allowed. At the time, there was no law prohibiting a President from serving a 3rd term, or what amounted to one. George Washington had refused to, establishing the two-term limit, but this became tradition, now law. Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe and Andrew Jackson all observed this tradition.

Ulysses S. Grant had considered running for a 3rd term in 1876, but decided against it. His wife Julia and his political ally, Senator Roscoe Conkling of New York, talked him into running again in 1880, but he didn't have enough support to get the nomination.

Grover Cleveland served 2 nonconsecutive terms, being elected in 1884, losing in 1888, and regaining the office by winning in 1892. He had considered running again in 1896, since it wouldn't have been 3 consecutive terms. But he took the political pulse of the nation, and realized he would probably lose.

After TR, Wilson himself wanted to run for a 3rd term in 1920, but, out of concerns for his health he was talked out of it. Warren Harding died in office in 1923, Calvin Coolidge refused to run for even a 2nd full term in 1928, and Herbert Hoover was defeated for a 2nd term in 1932.

In 1940, Theodore's cousin, Franklin Roosevelt, a Democrat, actually did run for a 3rd term. The Republicans printed buttons with many variations on the "No 3rd Term" theme, including one saying, "Washington Wouldn't, Grant Couldn't, Roosevelt Shouldn't." There were no such buttons printed by either major party in 1912.

But FDR did win in 1940, and won a 4th term in 1944, before dying in office in 1945. In 1947, having taken control of Congress, the Republicans insulted FDR's memory, but may have done the right thing in the process, by passing the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution, barring a 3rd term, or a 2nd full term if a President has already filled an unexpired Presidential term lasting more than 2 years. It was ratified by the States in 1951, with an exemption for the current President. The Republicans thought Thomas Dewey would win in 1948, and, given his age, could serve as President longer than FDR. Instead, Harry Truman won a full term, and was eligible to run again in 1952, but declined.

Dwight D. Eisenhower couldn't run again in 1960. Lyndon Johnson, having served the last 14 months of John F. Kennedy's term, and having been elected in 1964, was eligible to run again in 1968, and did, but dropped out. Had Gerald Ford been elected to a full term in 1976, he would not have been eligible to run again in 1980. Ronald Reagan couldn't run again in 1988, nor could Bill Clinton in 2000, nor could George W. Bush in 2008, nor could Barack Obama in 2016. All but Bush would have had a good chance at winning.

4. He Was Good At It. His nearly 2 full terms included the breaking of trusts, the regulation of the railroads, labor laws, the Pure Food and Drug Act, the first Presidency to truly embrace environmental activism including vastly expanding the National Park System, the start of building the Panama Canal, ending the Russo-Japanese War, and the first major buildup of the U.S. Navy since the Civil War.

If he could do those things between September 14, 1901 and March 4, 1909, what could he do between March 4, 1913 and March 4, 1917? He wanted to find out.

3. He Was Popular. He was more popular than the incumbent Taft. He was more popular than the national newcomer Wilson.

2. Taft's "Betrayal." In his 1st year in office, 1909, Taft supported the protectionist Payne-Aldrich Tariff Act, which TR opposed. Taft opposed new labor laws, which TR favored. Taft, himself one of the great legal minds of America at the time, a man who had hoped that Roosevelt would appoint him to the Supreme Court rather than support him for President, appointed federal judges, including Supreme Court Justices, far more conservative than Roosevelt would have.

On one issue, Taft was actually more liberal than Roosevelt: Taft actually "busted" more trusts than "trustbuster" Roosevelt, who thought that some monopolies were worth keeping. So even when ideology went the other way, they were split.

Roosevelt believed he had made Taft President. Taft believed that he had gotten there on his own. This was an idiotic thought, beneath a man as smart as Taft. Had a Democrat been President in 1908, or had a Republican not close to Taft then been President, there is no way, given his background, that Taft would have been nominated. Put in the Cabinet by a Republican President elected in 1908? Possibly. Appointed to the Supreme Court? Almost certainly. But nominated himself? No. That was all Roosevelt, and he felt betrayed.

And with such Republican heavyweights as Governor Hiram Johnson of California (who ended up as TR's running mate) and Senator Robert La Follette of Wisconsin (who would also be nominated for President by a Progressive Party, in 1924) on his side, TR had a big chunk of the Party on his side. But Taft had the conservative establishment on his.

And, since pretty much the only Republican presence in the South at the time was postmasters appointed by the President, Taft had a hammerlock on Southern delegates at the Republican Convention. Had that not been the case, Roosevelt just might have been able to wrest the nomination away. But that was the case, so he never had a chance.

1. The Democratic Party. TR believed that Taft was too weak to win a 2nd term, and that, if he didn't win, the Democrats would win. At the time, the likeliest Democratic nominee seemed to be the Speaker of the House, James Beauchamp "Champ" Clark of Missouri. And he was no William Jennings Bryan-style populist, which would have been bad enough by the standards of either Roosevelt of Taft: He was very conservative.

Champ Clark

But when Wilson, who had put progressive reforms in as Governor of New Jersey, got nominated instead, Roosevelt was even more sure that Taft would be seen as too conservative by the country at large. He figured that if Wilson got in, he might not be able to put in his reforms, because the Democratic leaders of Congress, mostly conservative Southerners, would stand in his way. (This turned out not to be the case.) To Roosevelt, the Democrats were still the party of Andrew Johnson.

But, he thought, if it was a question of who was better able to put in reforms, himself or Wilson, he would get back in. So he felt he had to run.

VERDICT: Not Guilty.

*

So, the Republicans should have thrown Taft overboard, and taken TR back, right? Right?

Maybe not:

Top 5 Reasons You Can't Blame the Republican Party for Renominating William Howard Taft in 1912

5. The Two-Term Limit. It was tradition, not law. But Washington had refused to run for a 3rd term, and until Grant, every 2-term President since had utterly refused to run for one. TR running for what amounted to a 3rd term was seen as gauche, as unbecoming the office.

The irony is, when cousin Franklin ran for a 3rd consecutive term in 1940, and the Republicans opposed it so bitterly, it was made more palatable by Theodore having run his campaign in 1912.

4. Theodore Roosevelt. New labor laws? Old-age pensions? Getting women the right to vote? Setting aside land for conservation, instead of exploitation by big business? These things would become facts of life over the next 5 to 60 years. But in 1912, most Republican voters considered them to be radical. (Some still do, over 100 years later.)

They may have liked Roosevelt in 1900 and 1904. But this "New Nationalism" was, to them, going too far. They just couldn't bring themselves to vote for someone who was this kind of Republican. They wanted a William McKinley type, an Ohioan who could appeal to small towns and farmers, more than a progressive reformer.

3. Incumbency. If the opposing party is running a strong nominee, it's nearly always better for your party to run the incumbent, no matter how troubled, than to try someone new.

2. Woodrow Wilson. And the Democratic nominee was strong, much stronger than his length of experience suggested. In spite of looking like Titus Moody (the old, set-in-his-ways New Englander first played by Parker Fennelly on Fred Allen's radio show, and later played by Charlie Welch in commercials for Pepperidge Farm baked goods), he had a very solid baritone voice, with little trace of his Southern accent, and sounded not like an old schoolmaster, but like a "favorite professor."

People who hadn't previously known Wilson began to like him. He became just popular enough to ride the facts that neither Taft nor third parties -- even if they were led by the even more popular Roosevelt -- were popular. 

And Republicans, given the choice between the New Yorker Roosevelt and the Ohioan Taft, who saw Wilson not as a New Jerseyan, but as a Southerner -- born in Virginia, and had grown up in the Carolinas and Georgia -- and suspected that he might be pro-Southern and anti-civil rights, thought that it was better to stick with the incumbent, Taft. (They would see their suspicions confirmed, especially by Wilson's 1st term.)

1. William Howard Taft. He was not an especially bad President. Every Republican President since has been at least nominated for the next term: Herbert Hoover in 1932, Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956, Richard Nixon in 1972, Gerald Ford in 1976, Ronald Reagan in 1984, George H.W. Bush in 1992, George W. Bush in 2004, and Donald Trump in 2020. And, with the exception of Eisenhower, a case can be made that Taft was a better President than any of them.

Think of all the things that certain Presidents have been advised to avoid:

* An economic downturn. A Depression hurt the Republicans in 1932. Sharp recessions hurt the Democrats in 1920 and 1980; and hurt the Republicans in 1960, 1976, 1992, 2008 and 2020. There was no recession, let alone depression, during Taft's Presidency.

* A war or other foreign policy crisis going badly. The Vietnam War hurt the Democrats in 1968. The Iran Hostage Crisis hurt the Democrats in 1980. The Iraq War hurt the Republicans in 2008. There was no war, or similar crisis, during Taft's Presidency.

* A major scandal. The Bonus Army scandal hurt the Republicans in 1932. A series of small scandals piled up to hurt the Democrats in 1952. The hangover from Watergate hurt the Republicans in 1976. The hangover from the Monica Lewinsky scandal hurt the Democrats in 2000 (although that was mainly due to Al Gore's perception of it, not the reality of it). A series of scandals piled up to hurt the Republicans in 2008, and again in 2020. And 25 years of "Clinton scandals" hurt the Democrats in 2016. There was no major scandal during Taft's Presidency.

Yes, there was labor unrest in Taft's time. Yes, he should have done more about it. But he didn't cause it, and it can't be seriously said that he made the situation worse. If Roosevelt hadn't run, the Republicans would have been united behind Taft, he would have beaten Wilson, Wilson would have faded into the background and probably never run again, and Taft would have served out his 2nd term, with some other Republican -- possibly Roosevelt -- being elected in 1916.

Even serving a full 2nd term probably wouldn't have left Taft remembered as one of America's greatest Presidents. But he was hardly a disaster. Certainly, there was not a good reason for the Republicans to deny him the nomination for a 2nd term.

VERDICT: Not Guilty.