Top 5 Reasons You Can't Blame Ross Perot for George H.W. Bush Losing the 1992 Election

November 3, 1992: Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas is elected President of the United States, defeating incumbent President George H.W. Bush and computer billionaire H. Ross Perot, who ran an independent campaign.

The popular vote: Clinton, 44.9 million, Bush 39.1 million, Perot 19.7 million. This was the 1st time that over 100 million people voted in a Presidential election. Clinton won 43.0 percent, Bush 37.4, Perot 18.9. States: Clinton 32, Bush 18, Perot none. Electoral Votes: Clinton 370, Bush 168, Perot none.

It was a very nasty campaign, or so it seemed by the standards of the time. Upon leaving the White House after 2 terms, Clinton worked with both George Bushes on disaster relief. This built an odd friendship, to the point where both preferred Bill's wife Hillary for President in 2016 -- though that could also be due to how Donald Trump treated Jeb Bush in that year's campaign.

To this day, many conservatives blame Perot, with his big spending on half-hour infomercials full of charts, and his overly folksy manner, for throwing the election to Clinton. This is a stupid idea.

Top 5 Reasons You Can't Blame Ross Perot for George H.W. Bush Losing the 1992 Election

5. The Republican Convention. We didn't call them "The Tea Party" or "MAGAs" back then, but the birth of the current crazy-conservative movement was at the Astrodome in that mid-August.

It was highlighted (or should that be, "lowlighted"?) by Pat Buchanan, the newspaper columnist, conservative TV pundit, and former aide to Presidents Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan completing his 1st run for President with an incredibly nasty speech. He declared, in his own words, "religious war," and closed by saying, "Take back our streets, take back our culture, and take back our country!" Sound familiar?

There was enough anti-single mother and anti-gay rights rhetoric to satisfy Buchanan's delegates, and to make Congressman Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania a Senator 2 years later and a viable Presidential candidate 20 years later. And there was enough sexism in general to make Donald Trump think, "Hey, I could be the Republican nominee for President someday."

All this made Bush, a center-right candidate and a centrist President, look like the leader of a party of far-right fanatics, hurting him in ways in which, unlike Barry Goldwater 28 years earlier, he wasn't hurting himself; but, like Goldwater, his supporters made him look more extreme than he really was.

4. George Bush. He ran a lousy campaign. It wasn't just that he was so desperate to keep conservatives in the fold that he ran with some really ridiculous conspiracy theories against Clinton. By the last couple of weeks, he looked really tired in his speeches. He looked like he wanted to be anywhere but at his appearances. The look on his face said, "When can I get outta here, and go back to my boat in Kennebunkport? I want to stay President, but not if this is the price I have to pay."

3. Bill Clinton. He ran a great campaign. He is the most natural politician the Democratic Party has had since Franklin Roosevelt -- even more so than Barack Obama.

2. It's the Economy, Stupid. That was the Clinton campaign slogan thought up by campaign manager James Carville, and it worked. Trickle-down economics is a disaster every time it's tried, and the bill for the excesses of the 1980s had come due.

1. Perot Didn't Matter. Exit polls taken on Election Night showed that about half of Perot's voters wouldn't have voted at all, and the other half were pretty much evenly split between Bush and Clinton. Perot finished 2nd in 2 States: Utah, ahead of Clinton; and, surprisingly, Maine, ahead of Bush, who had a home there.

It is possible that Perot siphoned off enough conservative (or, at least, non-liberal) votes to throw the following States to Clinton: Georgia, Kentucky, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, possibly New Jersey, and Ohio. That's a shift of 68 Electoral Votes, which would have turned a 370-168 Clinton win into a 302-236 Clinton win. And it could be just as easily argued that Perot siphoned enough votes to swing Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, South Dakota and Texas to Bush. That's 82 EVs: Clinton could have won 452-86.

VERDICT: Not Guilty. Perot didn't cost Bush the election. Bush did, with a bad performance and a worse campaign.

Perot ran again in 1996, and in the last days, told his audiences that Clinton would have pending criminal charges against him. This turned out not to be true. Perot didn't do nearly as well, but still did well enough to deny Clinton a majority.

He never ran for office again, and endorsed Bush's son, George W. Bush in 2000. He supported Mitt Romney in 2008 (Romney didn't get the Republican nomination for President) and 2012 (he did, but lost to Barack Obama). He did not endorse anyone in 2016, and died in 2019.

George Herbert Walker Bush told his audience in his concession announcement, "I intend to get fully involved in the grandchild business." He certainly did, and kind of became America's Grandpa. Oddly, George W.'s Presidency resembled Richard Nixon's and Ronald Reagan's -- right down to the international swagger and the domestic corruption -- much more than his father's. Every mistake he made seemed to be the opposite of a decision his father got right. As Dubya's reputation tumbled, his father's rose. The elder George Bush died in 2018, and was remembered fondly.

Bill Clinton's 2 terms were full of controversy, but, in terms of accomplishments and leaving the country better off when he arrived, he was the most successful President since Lyndon Johnson. He fully supported his wife Hillary's political career, and seemed more hurt than she was when the 2016 election was stolen from her. He is now 74 years old.