With the election this week of Trevor Hoffman, there are currently 6 pitchers who were elected to the Hall based mainly on what they did as relievers:
* Hoyt Wilhelm, who pitched from the mid-1950s to the early 1970s, and was both a starer and a reliever until the early 1960s. He was the master of the knuckleball, and the 1st pitcher to appear in as many as 1,000 regular-season games (breaking Cy Young's long-standing record of 906).
* Rollie Fingers, at his peak in the 1970s and early 1980s. He was known for his handlebar mustache, reminiscent of silent-film villains, and very villainous to hitters, though not known to hit batters on purpose, and, by all accounts, a nice guy off the mound.
* Bruce Sutter, who had a relatively short peak, from the late 1970s to the early 1980s. He was the 1st pitcher to make a name for himself with the split-fingered fastball, though Elroy Face used its predecessor, the forkball, with much relief success a generation earlier.
* Rich "Goose" Gossage, a relief star from the mid-1970s all the way to the mid-1990s. One of the fastest pitchers who ever lived, like Fingers, he eventually developed his own iconic mustache.
* Dennis Eckersley, a fine starter in the late 1970s and early 1980s (pitched a no-hitter in 1977 and won 20 in 1978), who was converted to a reliever in the mid-1980s and was one of the best ever into the mid-1990s. The Eck was the original Ninth Inning Man, also with an iconic look, his long hair and thin mustache earning him the nickname "the King of Spades." And...
* Trevor Hoffman, at his peak in the late 1990s and all through the 2000s. The 1st man to 500 saves, the 1st man to 600 saves, and still the National League's all-time record holder with 601.
As a note that may not mean anything here, Sutter and Hoffman are currently the only pitchers ever elected to the Hall who never started a game, either regular-season or postseason. Presuming that hasn't changed once Mariano Rivera gets in, it still won't due to his election: He arrived in the major leagues as a starter in 1995.
*
What does the election of these 5 pitchers tell us about what gets a reliever in?
Keep in mind: In Wilhelm's time, there weren't big save totals like we would see in the era of Fingers and Gossage; and the totals in their time would be frequently surpassed by the time Eck became a closer. As Wikipedia's entry on Fingers says:
When Fingers reached the major leagues, the role of relief pitchers was limited, as starting pitchers rarely left games while holding a lead; but as team offense increased following the 1968 season, and especially with the American League's introduction of the designated hitter in 1973, managers became more willing to replace starters in the late innings with a lead in order to forestall any late rallies by opponents.
Through the 1960s, both leagues' annual saves leaders tended toward totals of 20–25 saves; few pitchers remained in the role more than two or three years, with significant exceptions such as Roy Face and knuckleballer Hoyt Wilhelm. But in the 1970s, in an era allowing for greater opportunities for closers than had previously been available, Fingers' excellence in relief allowed him to gradually increase his annual saves totals past 30. In 1980 he broke Wilhelm's record of 227 saves, and eventually finished with 341, a record that stood until Jeff Reardon passed it in 1992.
Case in point: The Yankees won 5 straight American League Pennants in the early 1960s, but had a different main reliever each year: Art Ditmar in 1960, Luis Arroyo in 1961, Marshall Bridges in 1962, Hal Reniff in 1963 and Pete Mikkelsen in 1964.
Also, until Oakland Athletics manager Tony LaRussa made Eck essentially a 9th-inning-only guy, presaging the way Yankee manager Joe Torre would use Mariano Rivera, which pretty much made every manager (including Torre's successor, Joe Girardi) want a setup reliever, an 8th-inning-only guy, and a 9th-inning-only guy, relievers were expected to pitch more than 1 inning -- sometimes several more.
In the 1978 Playoff for the AL Division title against the Boston Red Sox, Yankee manager Bob Lemon brought Gossage in to relieve Ron Guidry in the 7th inning. The year before, in the AL Championship Series against the Kansas City Royals, Lemon's predecessor, Billy Martin, brought Sparky Lyle in to pitch in the 6th in Game 3 and the 4th in Game 4, going the rest of the way both times. And then to pitch the 8th and 9th in the deciding Game 5. (There was no Most Valuable Player award for the LCS at that time; if there was, he would have been an easy choice.) That was Lyle's Cy Young Award season, and he's not in the Hall of Fame.
And in 1974, with the A's in trouble in Game 1 of the World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, manager Alvin Dark brought Fingers in for the 5th, and let him go until relieving him with a starter, Catfish Hunter, in the 9th. The A's won, and won the Series in 5. (Fingers would be named MVP of that Series.)
So saves, and various related stats, might not be that reliable.
Also, coming in earlier in the old days meant that some relievers had a better chance to get wins than pitchers in the 1980s or later. ERA (earned run average), ERA+ (ERA relative to the League, with park effect somehow factored in), and WHIP (Walks + hits, per innings pitched) should also be considered.
Strikeouts, and related stats like K/9 IP and K/BB ratio, should not: While strikeouts are spectacular, they don't count for any more than a groundout or an out in the air. It's not like for starters, where 3,000 strikeouts over a career really is impressive. And, of course, winning is important: Did the pitcher's performance help his team win?
For the sake of argument, let us suppose that Mariano Rivera, eligible next season, gets in. Because even hardcore Red Sox fans won't suggest that he doesn't belong. So, here we go:
Saves: Rivera has a record 652 saves, Hoffman 601, Eckersley 390, Fingers 341, Gossage 310, Sutter 300, Wilhelm 227.
Wins Plus Saves: Mo a record 734, Hoffman 662, Eck 587, Fingers 455, Goose 434, Wilhelm 370, Sutter 368.
ERA: Mo 2.21 (lowest of any pitcher, starter or reliever, in the post-1920 Lively Ball Era), Wilhelm 2.52, Sutter 2.83, Hoffman 2.87, Fingers 2.90, Goose 3.01, Eck 3.50 (that high because he was a starter for 12 years, literally half his career).
ERA+: Mo a record 205, Wilhelm 147, Hoffman 141, Sutter 136, Goose 126, Fingers 120, Eck 116.
WHIP: Mo 1.000 (actually, 1.00026), Hoffman 1.058, Wilhelm 1.125, Sutter 1.140, Fingers 1.156, Eck 1.161, Goose 1.232.
Postseason appearances: Mo 16, Eck 8 (counting the 1978 Red Sox -- they did, after all, play a 163rd game that season), Fingers 7 (counting the 1981 Milwaukee Brewers in the strike-forced split-season Playoff format), Goose 5, Wilhelm 2 (as a rookie with the 1954 New York Giants and a veteran with the 1969 Atlanta Braves, although he did not appear in the NLCS against the Mets), Sutter only 1 (but was cheated out of another when the split-season format denied the St. Louis Cardinals the 1981 NL East title even though they had the best overall record in the Division, and another, possibly another ring, when the Cards traded him after the 1984 season despite tying Dan Quisenberry's record of 45 saves in a season).
World Series wins: Mo has 5 (1996, 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2009 Yankees), Fingers 3 (1972, 1973 and 1974 Oakland Athletics), Wilhelm 1 (as a rookie with the 1954 New York Giants), Sutter 1 (1982 St. Louis Cardinals), Eckersley 1 (1989 A's), Hoffman none (1 Pennant, with the 1998 San Diego Padres).
*
So what does this tell us? It means that 300 saves is a minimum consideration; that Wilhelm doesn't have 300 saves, but his other stats show him to be in, at the least, the same class as the other 4; that the Eck, because of his starting for half his career, is the only one with an ERA over 3.01 and an ERA+ under 120; and that, while Hoffman proves that postseason success isn't required to get in, a pitcher should have at least 1 ring. It also tells us that having a career losing record wasn't enough to keep either Fingers, Sutter or Hoffman out (although Sutter had to wait a lot longer to get in).
So let's use the following as our minimums: 300 saves, which all but Wilhelm had; with that established, 368 wins + saves; an ERA of 3.00 or lower, with the Goose slightly over and the Eck well over because he wasn't always a reliever; an ERA+ of 120 or higher, with the Eck an outlier; and a WHIP of 1.240 or lower, with the Goose being the highest. Once those are established, we should look at postseason berths and titles.
There are currently 28 pitchers with at least 300 career saves. Minus Rivera, Hoffman, Eckersley, Fingers, Gossage and Sutter, that leaves 22:
Lee Smith, 478; Francisco Rodriguez, a.k.a. K-Rod, 437 and counting; John Franco, 424; Billy Wagner, 422; Joe Nathan, 377; Jonathan Papelbon, 368; Jeff Reardon, 367; Troy Percival, 358; Randy Myers, 347; John Wetteland, 330; Francisco Cordero, 329; Roberto Hernandez, 326; Huston Street, 324 and counting; Jose Mesa, 321; Todd Jones, 319; Rick Aguilera, 318; Robb Nen, 314; Tom Henke, 311; Jeff Montgomery, 304; Doug Jones, 303; Fernando Rodney, 300 and counting; and Jason Isringhausen, 300.
Let's not kid ourselves: We can eliminate both Doug and Todd Jones, Isringhausen, Rodney, Montgomery, Henke, Nen, Aguilera, Mesa, Hernandez and Cordero.
That leaves Smith, Franco, Wagner, Nathan, Papelbon, Reardon, Percival, Myers, Wetteland, and the still-active K-Rod and Street. Keep in mind, this is not about whether they'll get in through the Writers: Some have already dropped off, and can only get in later through the Veterans Committee. This is about, based on who's already in, who else belongs.
We've been over 300 saves. This raises it to 330. But we've also established 368 wins + saves. So, of these 11, that leaves Smith with 549, Franco 514, K-Rod 489, Wagner 469, Nathan 441, Reardon 440, Papelbon 409, Percival 393, Myers 391, Wetteland 378 -- Street 366, but he's still active, and only needs 2 more to meet the threshold.
Also with an ERA of 3.00 or lower? Wagner 2.31, Papelbon 2.44, K-Rod 2.86, Nathan 2.87, Franco 2.89, Wetteland 2.93, Street 2.95 -- Smith 3.03, Reardon 3.16, Percival 3.17, Myers 3.19.
Also with an ERA+ of 120 or higher? Wagner 187, Papelbon 177, Nathan 151, Wetteland 148, K-Rod 148, Percival 146, Street 141, Franco 138, Smith 132, Myers 123, Reardon 122.
Also with a WHIP of 1.240 or lower? Wagner 0.998, Street 1.066, Percival 1.108, Papelbon 1.043, Nathan 1.120, Wetteland 1.135, K-Rod 1.155, Reardon 1.199 -- Smith 1.256, Myers 1.304, Franco 1.333.
Meeting all 4: Wagner, Nathan, Papelbon, Wetteland, and, for all intents and purposes, Street.
Meeting 3 of the 4: Franco, K-Rod, Reardon, Percival.
Meeting only 2: Smith, Myers. So we can eliminate those 2.
But here's another way to look at it: The old IYGA argument: "If you gotta ask... " In other words, if you hear his name, and you don't automatically say, "He should be in the Baseball Hall of Fame," then he shouldn't be.
K-Rod may be the all-time leader in saves by a lefthander. Franco, the recordholder before him. And Wetteland, he's a hero of the 1996 Yankees. But can you really say any of those get in?
I can't.ce those are established, we should look at postseason berths and titles.
No comments:
Post a Comment