* Derek Jeter. The Yankee shortstop of 1996 to 2014 getting in surprised no one. What did is that he got 396 of a possible 397 votes. That's 99.7 percent of the vote. Just 1 voting member of the BBWAA refused to vote for him. Last year, his longtime teammate Mariano Rivera became the 1st-ever unanimous honoree. If Jeter doesn't get in unanimously, I don't see anyone else being so honored.
I would understand it if there were 5 people who didn't vote for him, or even 2. But one? I don't yet know who he is, and I don't favor him getting harassed over this for the rest of his life. But I do think he should come to Yankee Stadium on Opening Day, and stand before a microphone, and explain his vote to the fans.
* Larry Walker. The right fielder played for the Montreal Expos from 1989 to 1994, the Colorado Rockies from 1995 to 2004, and the St. Louis Cardinals in 2004 and 2005. He was a 5-time All-Star, a 7-tie Gold Glove, a 3-time National League batting champion, and in 1997 led the NL in home runs and won its Most Valuable Player award. It was his 10th and final year on the ballot. He got 76.6 percent of the vote, and is the 2nd Canadian native and/or citizen in the Hall, following Ferguson Jenkins.
These men got the necessary 75 percent of the vote. They will join the honorees by the Modern Baseball Era Committee, one of the groups that took the place of the old Veterans Committee: Ted Simmons, catcher for the 1970s St. Louis Cardinals and the 1980s Milwaukee Brewers; and Marvin Miller, Executive Director of the Major League Baseball Players Association, the players' labor union, from 1966 to 1982. He had been denied election several times, most likely due to his having exposed the team owners as greedy and swindling players, before his death in 2012.
They will also join the late Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe, who was posthumously given the Hall's award for sportswriters, the J.G. Taylor Spink Award, named for the longtime publisher of The Sporting News, once known as "The Bible of Baseball"; and Ken Harrelson, a slugger for 4 teams in the 1960s, now a broadcaster for the Chicago White Sox, given the Hall's award for broadcasters, the Ford Frick Award, named for the sportswriter who served as NL President, and later as Commissioner of Baseball, and himself a Hall inductee.
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There were 4 players who got between 40 and 75 percent of the vote, all of them with a higher percentage than they got last year, missing this time, but suggesting that they will eventually get in through the writers' ballot: Curt Schilling, 70.0 percent; Roger Clemens, 61.0 percent; Barry Bonds, 60.7 percent; and Omar Vizquel, 52.6 percent.
It should be pointed out, though, that Schilling, Clemens and Bonds were each in their 8th year on the writers' ballot. Where once a player fell off the ballot if he failed 15 times, now, that threshold is 10. In other words, if they don't get elected in 2021 or 2020, they will have to wait for the Modern Baseball Era Committee.
Schilling has over 3,000 career strikeouts and an enviable postseason pitching record, but he might not be in yet because of all the feathers he's ruffled. If character truly counts, he goes from a good choice (but not an absolute choice) to a borderline choice.
And speaking of character and for how much it counts, Clemens and Bonds are still under the steroid cloud, despite Clemens' acquittal in a court of law. And I'd still like that bloodstain on Schilling's famous sock tested.
The fact that Clemens and Bonds, both of whom have overwhelming career statistics, are getting closer (but not much closer) to the magic 75 suggests that maybe, just maybe, the writers believe they have been punished enough for whatever cheating they may have done, and are getting closer to being willing to overlook it.
Or maybe they're just warming up for the election of 2022, when both Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz will become eligible. But, based on how the baseball world reacted to each of these men, we can guess that Big Papi will be elected that year, and A-Rod will not.
This is despite the facts that, when he got caught, A-Rod came clean, and Big Papi got caught, and continues to lie about it to this day. People hate the Yankees, and, as the Yankees' biggest rivals, they love the Red Sox, and they want to believe that the Yankees' achievements are illegitimate, while their opponents' achievements are worthy of admiration, and not of suspicion. The truth is, it shouldn't work that way, given the evidence that we have.
If you are wondering about the other major known or suspected steroid cheats: Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro have failed to get 5 percent of the votes on a ballot, and thus have dropped off the ballot completely, and are waiting to become eligible through the Veterans Committee. Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield and Sammy Sosa are hanging on, and I'll get to them shortly.
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The following players got between 5 and 40 percent of the vote, making it unlikely that they will ever get in through the writers' ballot:
* Scott Rolen, 35.3 percent in his 3rd year. In 1 year, he jumped 18 percent, suggesting he could make it. The Hall doesn't have many 3rd basemen, and this may work to Rolen's advantage. After all, for most of his career, the only 3rd baseman with notably better stats and a comparable fielding acumen was A-Rod.
* Billy Wagner, 31.7 percent in his 5th year. Among left-handed pitchers, only John Franco has more career saves (barely, 424 to 422). What hurts Wagner is the statistics that make him, arguably, the worst relief pitcher in postseason history, even worse than Armando Benitez.
* Gary Sheffield, 30.5 percent in his 6th year. Over 500 home runs, but that asterisk likely means it's the Veterans Committee or bust.
* Todd Helton, 29.2 percent in his 2nd year. This nearly doubles his percentage from last year. Being a hitter for the Colorado Rockies, in the high elevation of Denver, hurts him, as it had hurt Walker. But Walker now getting in may have, as was said yesterday, "taken the curse off of Coors Field." And being a contact hitter, a hitter for average, first and a power hitter second may actually help him.
* Manny Ramirez, 28.2 percent in his 4th year. He 5.4 percent over last year. Here's a guy who, like Clemens and Bonds, was good enough that he didn't have to cheat, but he did anyway. And he proved himself to be someone of a very low character. In spite of over 500 home runs, I don't think he'll ever get in.
* Jeff Kent, 27.5 percent in his 7th year. Being the all-time home run leader at the position of 2nd base has helped his Hall of Fame chances about as much as a degree in ancient astrology has helped someone go from barista to manager at Starbucks.
* Andruw Jones, 19.4 percent in his 3rd year. Here's a guy who played 17 major league seasons, reached the postseason in 13 of them, hit 434 home runs and won 10 Gold Gloves. How could he not even get 20 percent of the Hall of Fame vote?
* Sammy Sosa, 13.9 percent in his 8th year. With steroids, he hit 609 career home runs. Without them, he might have had half as many. He's not getting in unless the Veterans Committee is really lenient about performance-enhancing drugs.
* Andy Pettitte, 11.3 percent in his 2nd year. He was far more honest about what he did (very briefly) than some others we've mentioned. He won 256 games in the 5-man rotation era, and a record 19 more in postseason play. But he didn't gain much over last year, and the writers may be holding his Yankeeness against him.
* Bobby Abreu, 5.5 percent in his 1st year. Very good player, and clean as far as we know, but he'll never get in.
These players, all in their 1st year of eligibility, got very few votes, and thus fell off the ballot completely: Paul Konerko, 10 votes for 2.5 percent; Jason Giambi and Alfonso Soriano, 6 votes for 1.5 percent; Eric Chavez and Cliff Lee, 2 votes for 0.5 percent; and Adam Dunn, Raul Ibanez, Brad Penny and J.J. Putz, 1 vote for 0.3 percent.
Remember when Lee was supposed to be the best pitcher in baseball? He, Konerko and Soriano may have better luck when they become eligible through the Modern Baseball Era Committee.
These players, all in their 1st year of eligibility, got no votes at all, and thus fell off the ballot completely: Josh Beckett, Heath Bell, Chone Figgins, Rafael Furcal, Carlos Pena, Brian Roberts and Jose Valverde.
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Based on the preceding, who is likely to be elected next year? Among the first-time hitters are Torii Hunter, Shane Victorino, Grady Sizemore and Nick Swisher. Unless the voters consider Hunter's 9 Gold Gloves along with his 2,452 hits, 353 of which were home runs, neither of which is a HOF stat by itself, I don't think any of them gets in.
Among the first-time pitchers are Tim Hudson, Mark Buehrle, Dan Haren, Barry Zito and A.J. Burnett. Hudson and Buehrle are borderline cases at best, and the others aren't even that.
It's possible that no first-timers will get in next year -- as opposed to 2022, when the first-timers will include the aforementioned A-Rod and Big Papi, and also Mark Teixeira and Jimmy Rollins, who are less likely, although not because of steroid use, because they've never been seriously suspected of it.
Therefore, with 2022 probably being Ortiz' year, and maybe also A-Rod's, 2021 could be it for Schilling, Clemens and Bonds. If they don't get elected in 2021, then it's the Modern Baseball Era Committee for them -- which, unlike the BBWAA vote, will include former players, and maybe the respect they've generated from their peers will help.
If they don't get in in '21, then, in '22, the steroid question will be forced with the eligibility of A-Rod and Papi.
Two years from now, give or take a few days, we will know whether the writers are willing to overlook PED use for all, some, or none. Given what we have seen, about their feelings for the Yankees and the Red Sox, I'm still thinking it will be Clemens and Ortiz in, and Rodriguez and Pettitte out, with Bonds a toss-up. After all, it is widely presumed that Clemens wasn't cheating while with the Red Sox.
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