The Dodgers have the overall home-field advantage because they had the better regular-season record.
Top 5 Reasons the Yankees Will Win the World Series (And 5 Why They Might Not)
10. Might Not: Gone Stale. It will have been 6 days since they last played. Any momentum they had would be gone. In contrast, the Dodgers will be well-rested.
9. Will: Well-Rested. It could work the other way around: The Yankees will be well-rested, and the Dodgers, who last played 5 days earlier, could have gone stale.
8. Might Not: The Bullpens. Somebody has to be the bridge between the starting pitcher and Luke Weaver. And the Yankees have too many guys who don't look like it. One who did, Ian Hamilton, was hurt much of the season, was key in September and in the Playoffs, and is hurt again.
7. Will: The Bullpens. The Dodger pen isn't so hot, either. Evan Phillips led the team with 18 saves, and his ERA is 3.62. None of their relievers made the All-Star Game.
In contrast, the Yankees may finally have found their closer in Luke Weaver. As long as Clay Holmes is pitching no later than the 8th inning, I think we can trust him. And the rest of the bullpen did get better in September and October, including Holmes and Tim Hill.
6. Might Not: Questionable Ace. Gerrit Cole should be the Yankees' ace, like previous World Series aces Waite Hoyt, Lefty Gomez, Allie Reynolds, Whitey Ford, Ron Guidry, David Cone, Roger Clemens and CC Sabathia. But he has come up small in October before, including for the Houston Astros before he was a Yankee.
5. Will: The Dodgers Have No Ace. Clayton Kershaw is one of the best pitchers of his generation. He's going to the Hall of Fame, unless he does something stupid like bet on baseball or get caught using steroids. And his former reputation for failing in the postseason is gone. But he's injured, and unavailable.
And, of course, Shohei Ohtani has pitched, and very well, but is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, and won't be pitching again until at least Spring Training of next year.
Without Kershaw and Ohtani, the Dodgers have no ace. Their pitcher with the most wins was Gavin Stone, only 11. Their starter with the best winning percentage was former Yankee James Paxton, 8-2 for .800, but his ERA was 4.43, and probably won't make the Series roster. Their starter with the lowest ERA is Yoshinobu Yamamoto, at 3.00; with the lowest WHIP, Tyler Glasnow, 0.948, but he only went 9-6.
You can win a World Series with 3 good starting pitchers, but it helps to have an absolute shutdown artist. L.A. don't have one.
4. Might Not: The Dodgers' Killer Lineup. Here's their usual starting nine, with their OPS+'s for the season, keeping in mind that higher is better, and 100 is exactly average:
DH Shohei Ohtani 190
RF Mookie Betts 145
LF Teoscar Hernández 137
1B Freddie Freeman 143
SS Tommy Edman 101
3B Max Muncy 141
CF Andy Pages 102
C Will Smith 116
2B Chris Taylor 73
1 through 8 are strong. In 1 through 6, the only weak spot would appear to be Edman, but he was the Most Valuable Player of the NL Championship Series, and will likely stay in the lineup. And 1 through 4 are as good as any in baseball today.
But, perhaps, not better than...
3. Will: The Yankees' Killer Lineup. The Yankees are finally fully-healthy, with the exceptions of a couple of relievers. Here's their usual lineup:
2B Gleyber Torres 101
RF Juan Soto 178
CF Aaron Judge 223
DH Giancarlo Stanton 115
3B Jazz Chisholm Jr. 130
1B Anthony Rizzo 81
SS Anthony Volpe 86
C Austin Wells 103
LF Alex Verdugo 83
Let's be honest: While capable of the occasional big hit, Volpe and Verdugo are in the lineup for their gloves. Torres was awful from April through August, but has really come on from September onward. So has Stanton. Both got some big hits in the Playoffs. Rizzo is pretty much still playing hurt, but can still jack it out.
2,. Might Not: The Dodgers' Emotion. Fernando Valenzuela, Dodger legend, just died, between the National League Championship Series and the World Series. The same thing happened to Dodger player-turned-coach Jim "Junior" Gilliam in 1978. The Dodgers dedicated the World Series to Gilliam's memory, and wore Number 19 patches on their sleeves. It is likely that the Dodgers will now do the same for Fernando, and use that as an emotional boost.
1. Will: The Yankees Won't Care. Any more than they did in 1978: They lost the 1st 2 games in Los Angeles, then won the next 3 in The Bronx, and won Game 6 in L.A. This group of Yankees is running on their own emotion. They're locked in.
UPDATE: They lost in 5 games. The layoff didn't seem to affect either team much, so throw out #'s 10 and 9. As for #'s 8 and 7, the Dodger bullpen got the job done, while the Yankee bullpen did not. #'s 6 and 5: Cole did his job, but the Dodger starters did theirs. #'s 2 and 1 proved irrelevant. As for #'s 4 and 3: Only 2 guys really did much damage, 1 on each team: Stanton for the Yankees, Freeman much more for the Dodgers. Freeman turned out to be the difference.
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