Analyzing the 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame Vote

Last night, the Baseball Writers Association of America balloting for the 2024 election to the Baseball Hall of Fame was released. This election was for players who retired between 2009 and 2018.

Players must be retired for 5 full seasons, and may remain on the ballot for up to 10 seasons, before they are moved to one of the committees that replaced the old Committee on Veterans.

Players had to get 75 percent of the vote to be elected. As is usually the case, the vote ended up including at least one obvious selection, at least one questionable selection, at least one questionable denial, and at least one denial that was pure baloney.

Adrián Beltré was elected in his 1st year of eligibility, receiving over 95 percent of the vote. The Dominican 3rd baseman was the obvious selection: 3,166 hits, 477 home runs, 5 Gold Gloves, 4 All-Star Games. He reached the postseason with the 2004 Los Angeles Dodgers; and with the Texas Rangers in 2011 (winning his only Pennant), 2012, 2015 and 2016.

Todd Helton was elected on his 6th try, receiving 79 percent. The 1st baseman is probably the greatest player in the history of the Colorado Rockies, with a .316 lifetime batting average, 2,519 hits including 369 home runs, 3 Gold Gloves and 5 All-Star Games. He helped the Rockies win their 1st Pennant in 2007, and reach the postseason again in 2009.

Joe Mauer was elected on his 1st try, receiving 76 percent. One of the top catchers of his generation before the Minnesota Twins switched him to 1st base, his retirement at age 35 left him with career statistics, which, I thought, made him a borderline case.

Despite a .306 lifetime batting average, he only had 2,123 hits, 143 of them home runs, despite playing most of his early career's home games at the homer-happy Metrodome in Minneapolis. He won 3 Gold Gloves, made 6 All-Star Teams, was selected (over Derek Jeter, dubiously) as the 2009 American League Most Valuable Player; and reached the postseason with the Twins in 2006, 2009, 2010 and 2017.

Billy Wagner fell just short, with 73.8 percent. That's 5 votes short. This was his 9th time on the ballot, leaving him with 1 more, next year. The case for Wagner is that he has 422 saves, 2nd-most among all lefthanded pitchers, and a 2.31 ERA, the 2nd-lowest among all pitchers in the post-1920 Lively Ball Era, behind only Mariano Rivera. He was a 7-time All-Star.

Who's kidding who? He's not a Hall-of-Famer. The lefty ahead of him, with 424, is John Franco, and he's not in, and he was a much more reliable pitcher.

The Houston Astros made the Playoffs in 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2001, but never won a postseason series. The Philadelphia Phillies came close to the Playoffs in 2004 and 2005, but didn't make it either time. The New York Mets came within 1 run of the Pennant in 2006, but didn't make it. The Mets came within 1 win of making the Playoffs in 2007 and 2008, but didn't make it. The Boston Red Sox made the Playoffs in 2009, and the Atlanta Braves did so in 2010, but each was knocked out of the Playoffs in the Division Series.

What did all of those teams have in common? Billy Wagner. His career postseason ERA was 10.03. His career postseason WHIP was 1.971. He was the worst pitcher in postseason history. Armando Benitez looks like Goose Gossage in comparison. Bottom line: If your team needed to win a game, to get into the postseason or win in it, Wagner was not your guy.

Gary Sheffield got 63.9 percent, in his 10th and last year. He now falls to the "Contemporary Baseball Committee." Since he has been credibly accused of using steroids, he should not get in. Nor should the Alex Rodriguez, who got 34.8 percent; or Manny Ramirez, who got 32.5 percent.

On the other hand David Ortiz, who flat-out failed a test, got in. And Sheff, A-Rod and Manny were all far better all-around players. I'll say it again. Either steroid use matters, or it doesn't. If it does, then Ortiz and any other proven steroid user who is in must be kicked out. If it doesn't, then any player who has been credibly accused, but has the stats, has to be let in. If you are in the BBWAA, and you voted for David Ortiz, but you've never voted for Alex Rodriguez, you are intellectually dishonest, and your membership and voting privileges should be revoked.

And Andy Pettitte, in his 6th year on the ballot, got 13.5 percent. They call him a "cheater." What he did can hardly be called cheating. If you refuse to vote for Pettitte because he "cheated," but voted for Ortiz, you're not merely a goddamned liar, you're a blithering idiot.

Carlos Beltrán got 57.1 percent. This was his 2nd time on the ballot. Stat-wise, he should be in. But he is forever tainted by the Houston Astros cheating scandal, and should never get in. Different kind of cheating than steroid use, but cheating is cheating, even if what you did before was enough.

Andruw Jones got 61.6 percent. This was his 7th time. He has never been credibly accused of cheating, but he does have a domestic violence cloud over him. Statistically, he's close, but it's not definitive. Omar Vizquel, also in his 7th go-round, should be in based on performance alone, but also has the taint of domestic violence against him, and he only got 17.7 percent.

Three Philadelphia Phillies stars of the 21st Century were on the ballot and didn't come close. Chase Utley got 28.8 percent, while both Bobby Abreu and Jimmy Rollins got 14.8 percent. Ryan Howard first reached the ballot in 2022, but got less than 5 percent of the vote, and will now have to wait for consideration from the Contemporary Era Committee.

Met "legend" David Wright, in his 1st year on the ballot, got 6.2 percent, barely staying on. He'll never get in.

Among next year's 1st-time eligibles: Ichiro Suzuki is a shoo-in; CC Sabathia should be; Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Félix Hernández, Troy Tulowitzki and Curtis Granderson are longshots at best; and the rest can forget it.