Friday, August 30, 2019

Two Months to Tell the Tale

Today is the anniversary of my grandfather's birth. If you think I am too much of a Yankee Fan, blame him. He grew up in The Bronx, within walking distance of Yankee Stadium. He could walk down the street and watch the original Stadium being built in 1922 and '23. He sat in those bleachers and watched Babe Ruth, before Lou Gehrig. Half a century later, in the 1970s, he introduced me to the team, and the rest is history. Well, family history, anyway.

He would have been pleased at the Yankees' nice recovery from a bad start to their Pacific Coast road trip, and he would have been pleased at the Yankees are so far ahead in the American League Eastern Division right now.

Although he would have been puzzled by the fact that the team that is, allegedly, chasing the Yankees is in Florida. He got old, living to be 78, and he did live in a retirement community, but it was near the Jersey Shore, not in Florida. He would never have gone to Florida.

The Yankees begin their road trip by getting swept  in 3 straight games by the Oakland Athletics, and that brought back some memories. Those coast road trips used to hurt the Yankees very badly in the 1980's, and we're a big reason why they were usually in the AL East race in August, but out of it by the time September began.

But then the Yankees played an Interleague series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, and took 2 out of 3, and the only loss was just 2-1. In other words, the big concern going into this road trip, the thought that the starting pitching was insufficient, proved not to be the case. Then they went up to Seattle, and took 3 straight against the Mariners. The road trip started out 0-3, and ended up 5-4. I'll take a 5-4 coast road trip any season.

There are still injuries, but Mike Ford has stepped up in the absence of 1st baseman Luke Voit.  Aaron Judge has finally gotten hot. So has Gary Sanchez, although he's been doing it most of the season. The fact that the Yankees hit so well in Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles and T-Mobile Park (until this season, known as Safeco Field) in Seattle, both known to be pitcher-friendly, is also encouraging.

As for the pitching, our presumed weak spot:

* Domingo German got hit hard in the opener in Oakland, a 6-2 loss. But he was very strong in the finale in Los Angeles, a 5-1 win that advanced him to 17-3 on the season. He is a serious candidate for the AL's Cy Young Award.

* J.A. Happ got hit hard in the 2nd game in Oakland, a 6-4 loss; but bounced back just enough to get the job done in the opener in Seattle, a 5-4 win.

* Masahiro Tanaka did not pitch well in the finale in Oakland, a 5-3 loss; but was sensational in the 2nd game in Seattle, shutting the Mariners out for 7 innings, allowing just 3 runs and 1 walk while fanning 7. Luis Cessa, so often ineffective this season, was trusted to finish off a 6-0 lead, and it ended 7-0 to the Yankees.

* James Paxton pitched spectacularly in the opener in Los Angeles, striking out 11 and walking none, getting home runs from Judge, Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, and 2 from Didi Gregorius, en route to a 10-2 win. He also pitched decently in the finale in Seattle, a 7-3 win.

* CC Sabathia struggled in 4 innings in his start in the 2nd game in L.A., a game the Yankees ended up losing 2-1, including a 9th inning timeout call that may have screwed them out of a tying run. But, between them, Cory Gearrin (a recent waiver pickup, a 33-year-old righthander from Georgia, the Yankees being his 6th team since his 2011 MLB debut), Chad Green, Adam Ottavino and Zack Britton pitched 5 scoreless innings, allowing only 1 hit (Gearrin) and 1 walk (Ottavino). Between them, the 5 Yankee pitchers struck 12 Dodgers out.

So: Good news for the bullpen and Paxton; mixed news, but nice bounce-backs, from German, Happ and Tanaka; and continued concern for the soon-to-retire Sabathia.

*

So where do the Yankees stand now, going into Labor Day Weekend? They are 88-47, on a pace to win 105 games. They lead the AL East by 11 games over the Tampa Bay Rays. The all-important loss column does not change that. Their Magic Number, the total number of Yankee wins and Rays losses that would clinch the Division, is 17.

I don't care how many they need to clinch at least a Wild Card berth: It's been 7 years since they won the Division, and that's inexcusable, and winning the Division puts you in a much better position than even winning the Wild Card Game does.

The Yankees lead the Western Division-leading Houston Astros by 1 game for the best overall record in the AL. They are half a game ahead of the National League Western Division-leading Dodgers for the best overall record in all of MLB. In other words, if the current standings hold to the end of the regular season, on September 29, 27 games from now, the Yankees would have home field advantage (HFA) in the postseason for however far they advance.

If said standings hold until the end, the Division Series would be as follows:

* AL: Yankees with HFA over winner of Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Indians; Astros with HFA over AL Central-leading Minnesota Twins.

* NL: Dodgers with HFA over winner of Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals; NL East-leading Atlanta Braves with HFA over NL Central-leading St. Louis Cardinals.

If you're wondering about the Mets: Their flirtation with the NL Wild Card berths took a major hit with their sweep at home at the hands of the Cubs. They are now 5 1/2 games out of the 2nd NL Wild Card, with 29 to play. I've often said that it is fair to ask a good team to be able to gain 1 game per week, but, counting this weekend as half a week, there are 4 1/2 weeks left. The Magic is not coming back.

*

What about the Yankees' endless string of injuries? Here is the latest update, in order of expected return from most recent to furthest away:

* Luke Voit, 1st base: Tonight. He's been called up. That's the good news. The bad news is who he's replacing. More on that momentarily.

* Ben Heller, pitcher: Early September. His recovery from Tommy John surgery is nearly complete, as he is already pitching in Scranton. He could even be a 40-man roster callup on September 1, this coming Sunday. But don't count on him being put on the postseason roster, unless he ends up pitching better than he ever has.

* Jordan Montgomery, pitcher: Early September. He's already pitching for Scranton, and could be a September 1 callup. He might need a little more time than that, though. But if he's available for the postseason, it gives Aaron Boone some flexibility, especially if Sabathia and Happ continue to struggle, Paxton goes back to doing so, and Severino can't come back strong.

* Dellin Betances, pitcher: Early September. He is set to face hitters in a simulated game tomorrow. If he's okay, he could begin a minor league rehab assignment. He could be as little as a week away, but the Yankees need him more for the postseason, so they shouldn't rush him.

* Luis Severino, pitcher: Mid-September. He's been cleared to make his 1st rehab start for Scranton on Sunday. If he can give us a postseason that's anything like what he was before he got hurt, it would be a huge lift. A postseason rotation of Severino, Tanaka and German (not necessarily in that order), with Paxton as the 4th guy when necessary, would be much more encouraging than a rotation of Tanaka, German, Paxton, and either Sabathia or Happ.

* Gio Urshela, 3rd base: Mid-September. He was injured in Seattle, and was place on the 10-Day Injured List to make room for Voit's callup. If it is only a 10-day thing, that will be a big relief.

* Giancarlo Stanton, right field/designated hitter: Mid-September. He took batting practice in Seattle, but there is, as yet, no timetable for rehab games for the man who, currently, stands as the biggest bust, divided by money, in the history of Yankee acquisitions.

* Edwin Encarnacion, 1st base/designated hitter: September. He has been taking batting, fielding and throwing practice, but hasn't yet faced live pitching in any form. Not a guy who needs to be counted on, but would be a nice option for the postseason.

* Jonathan Holder, pitcher: September. Another guy who doesn't need to be rushed back.

* Stephen Tarpley, pitcher: September. Ditto.

* Thairo Estrada, utility player: September. A spare part, the kind of guy Joe Torre loved to count on, including in the postseason. Probably not necessary, though.

* Aaron Hicks, center field: Possibly September. Given that his injury is a flexor strain in his elbow, the Yankees don't want to take any chances. He might end up getting shut down for the year. But he would be a big help in the postseason.

* Greg Bird, 1st base: Unknown. Given his string of injuries, and his contract situation, and the performances of Voit, Encarnacion and DJ LeMahieu, he may never play for the Yankees again.

* Jake Barrett, pitcher: Unknown. He hasn't pitched since May 25, but he has resumed throwing.

* David Hale, pitcher: Unknown. He hasn't pitched since July 26, threw 30 pitches in the bullpen on August 8, but had a setback, and has been shut down. If he ever plays another game in Pinstripes, I'll be surprised.

* Miguel Andujar, 3rd base: Spring Training of next season.

* Jacoby Ellsbury, outfield: Spring Training of next season. However, with his contract running out, it is unlikely that any return he makes will be for the Yankees.

*

Today is August 30. If the World Series goes to a Game 7, with no postponements due to weather or anything else, Game 7 would be played on October 30. In other words, one way or another, the baseball season ends in two months.

These next 2 months will tell the tale. Will the Yankees finally do the business for the 28th time? Or will they come up short? If they come up short for the 18th time in the last 19 seasons, will it still seem encouraging enough to justify giving Brian Cashman another year as general manager, another offseason to make deals, another trading deadline in July 2020?

It is possible that we could lose without blowing a postseason series. Sometimes, the opposition is simply better, and you have to give them credit. Of course, if that opposition turns out to be the Houston Astros, a team that strengthen itself in part due to Cashman's in action in both 2017 and 2019, that would be an ignominious defeat, and Cashman should have to answer for it.

At any rate, the Yankees have returned home, and face the A's in a return series of the road trip's beginning. The remaining schedule:

* Tonight, and tomorrow and Sunday afternoons: Home to Oakland. The A's are currently in position to get one of the AL Wild Card slots.

* Monday afternoon (Labor Day) and Tuesday and Wednesday nights: Home to the Texas Rangers. They are not going to make the Playoffs.

* Friday night, Saturday late afternoon, and Sunday and Monday nights: Away to the Boston Red Sox. It looks like The Scum are out of the Playoff hunt, which is a relief. I guess they didn't re-sign their pharmacist.

* The following Tuesday and Wednesday nights, and Thursday afternoon: Away to the Detroit Tigers. They are in rebuilding mode.

* The following Friday night, and Saturday and Sunday afternoons: Away to the Toronto Blue Jays. Their awful season is coming to a close.

* The following Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday nights: Home to the Los Angeles Angels. They're not making the Playoffs.

* The following Friday night, and Saturday and Sunday afternoons: Home to Toronto.

* The following Tuesday and Wednesday nights: Away to Tampa Bay. I wouldn't mind at all if the Yankees clinched the Division in either of these games. Of course, I wouldn't mind them going into this series having already clinched.

* The following Friday and Saturday nights, and Sunday afternoon, away to Texas. These will be the last games ever played at the stadium the Rangers opened in 1994, known as The Ballpark in Arlington through 2004, Ameriquest Field through 2006, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington through 2013, and now as Globe Life Park in Arlington. That's only 26 seasons. Its replacement, Globe Life Field (not "Park"), is being built to the south. The existing stadium will be left standing, as the home of the reborn XFL's Dallas Renegades.

*

Days until Rutgers University plays football again: None. They are about to kick off the season, right now, at Rutgers Stadium (a.k.a. SHI Stadium -- no, I didn't name or rename it), against the University of Massachusetts.

Days until the New York Red Bulls play again: 1, tomorrow night at 7, home to the Colorado Rapids at Red Bull Arena.

Days until Arsenal play again: 2, on Sunday, at 11:30 AM New York time, home to arch-rivals Tottenham Hotspur in the North London Derby at the Emirates Stadium.

Days until the next North London Derby: See the previous answer. It is unusual for Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur to play each other so early in the season, but not unprecedented: As recently as the 2013-14 season, they did so on September 1. As it was on that occasion, to get higher TV ratings, the game was moved from Saturday to Sunday.

Days until the next Yankees-Red Sox series begins: 6, next Thursday night, September 5, at Fenway Park.

Days until East Brunswick High School plays football again: 7, next Friday night, at 7:00 PM, home to arch-rival Old Bridge. Like most of the local rivalries that were once played on Thanksgiving Day, this one has been moved back to the opening game. It will also be the head coaching debut of Andy Steinfeld, a longtime assistant and a two-way lineman on the school's 1984 Conference Champions. It will also be the start of a Yankees-Red Sox series. So I'm getting a double dose of "Scum" on the night. Lucky me. At least it'll be at Jay Doyle's Green Grove off Cranbury Road, instead of at the purple shit pit on Route 9.


Days until the U.S. national soccer team plays again: 7, next Friday night, at 8:30, against Mexico, at MetLife Stadium at the Meadowlands. This will be their 1st match of any kind since their bottlejob against Mexico in the Final of the 2019 CONCACAF Gold Cup.

Days until the Red Bulls next play a "derby": 23, on Sunday night, September 22, against the Philadelphia Union, at Red Bull Arena. The Red Bulls next play D.C. United the following Sunday, also at RBA. They will not play New York City or the New England Revolution again during the regular season. However, all 4 of these rival teams remain potential Playoff opponents.

Days until the New Jersey Devils play again: 35, on Friday night, October 4, at the Prudential Center, against the Winnipeg Jets. Just 5 weeks.

Days until the New Jersey Devils next play a local rival: 40, on Wednesday night, October 9, against the Philadelphia Flyers, a.k.a. The Philth, at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. The season's 1st game against the New York Rangers, a.k.a. The Scum, will be on Thursday, October 17, at the Prudential Center. The 1st game against the New York Islanders will be on Thursday, January 2, 2020, at the Barclays Center.

Days until the next Rutgers-Penn State football game: 92, on Saturday, November 30, at Beaver Stadium in State College, Pennsylvania. Exactly 3 months.

Days until my 50th Birthday, at which point I can join AARP and get discounts for travel and game tickets: 110, on December 18, 2019. A little over 4 months.

Days until the premiere of the final Star Wars film, Episode IX: The Rise of Skywalker: 112, on December 20, 2019.

Days until the Baseball Hall of Fame vote is announced, electing Derek Jeter: 144on January 21, 2020. Under 5 months.

Days until Euro 2020 begins, a tournament being held all over Europe instead of in a single host nation: 287, on Friday, June 12, 2020. Under 10 months.

Days until the next Summer Olympics begins in Tokyo, Japan: 329, on July 24, 2020. Under 11 months.

Days until the next Presidential election, when we can dump the Trump-Pence regime and elect a real Administration: 431on November 3, 2020. A little over a year, or a little over 14 months.

Days until a fully-Democratic-controlled Congress can convene, and the Republicans can do nothing about it: 492, on January 3, 2021. Under a year and a half, or a little over 16 months.

Days until Liberation Day: 509at noon on January 20, 2021. Under a year and a half, or under 17 months. Note that this is liberation from the Republican Party, not just from Donald Trump. Having Mike Pence as President wouldn't be better, just differently bad, mixing theocracy with plutocracy, rather than mixing kleptocracy with plutocracy.

Days until the next Winter Olympics begins in Beijing, China: 889, on February 4, 2022. Under 2 1/2 years, or a little over 29 months.

Days until the next World Cup is scheduled to kick off: 1,179, on November 21, 2022, in Qatar. A little over 3 years, or a little under 39 months. The charges of corruption against Qatar may yet mean that they will lose the tournament, in which case it will be moved to a nation where it would not be too hot to play it in June and July.

Days until the next Women's World Cup is scheduled to kick off: As yet unknown, but probably on the 2nd Friday in June 2023, which would be June 9. That would be 1,379 days, a little under 4 years, or a little over 45 months. A host nation is expected to be chosen on March 20, 2020. Since 2 of the last 3 host nations have been in Europe, North America (Canada) hosted in 2015, and Asia (China) hosted in 2007, my guess is that it will be in either Asia (Japan, possibly Korea, but not China) or Oceania (Australia, possibly a joint bid with New Zealand).

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