Friday, May 3, 2019

Yankees Swept In Arizona

The Yankees' 2-game trip to Phoenix to play the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field was a bust. They scored a total of 3 runs, and that wouldn't have been enough to win either game.

Masahiro Tanaka started on Wednesday afternoon, and was shaky, allowing 3 runs on 5 hits and a walk, and was not allowed to continue past the 4th inning. Frequently, when he doesn't do well, it's because he gives up home runs. He gave up 1, to Ketel Marte in the 4th inning, and it turned out to be decisive.

Between them, Luis Cessa, Tommy Kahnle and Adam Ottavino pitched very well for 4 innings, with only a walk by Cessa making it less than perfect. In each of the 3 cases, this was a good sign. They kept the Yankees in the game, and gave the offense a chance to win it.

They didn't take it. Brett Gardner led off the game with a single, but was erased when Luke Voit grounded into a double play. Gio Urshela got to 3rd base in the 2nd, on a double and an error, but there were 2 outs, and Tyler Wade grounded to short to end the threat.

The Yankees loaded the bases with 2 outs in the 5th, but a Gardner groundout put a stop to that. Voit continued his hot streak with a leadoff home run in the 6th, and Gleyber Torres doubled with 1 out. But neither Mike Tauchman nor Urshela could bring him around. Cameron Maybin drew a 1-out walk in the 7th, but got no closer to scoring.

The Yankees closed the gap in the 8th, as Voit drew a leadoff walk, followed by a Gary Sanchez single. But Torres grounded into a double play. That did manage to get Voit to 3rd, and Tauchman singled him home. But Urshela grounded out to stop that. Maybin drew a 1-out walk in the 9th, putting the tying run on. But Austin Romine hit a liner to right that was caught, and Gardner flew out to center to end the game.

Diamondbacks 3, Yankees 2. WP: Merrill Kelly (3-2). SV: Greg Holland (7). LP: Masahiro Tanaka (2-3).

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So here's where we stand, going into this weekend: The Yankees are 17-13, 4 games over .500, 2 1/2 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League Eastern Division, 2 in the loss column. If the current AL standings end up being the final standings, the Division Champions would be the Rays, the Minnesota Twins and the Houston Astros; while the Yankees would visit the Seattle Mariners for the AL Wild Card Game.

The Yankees need to do better, and to get healthy, so they can do better still. They are playing at a 92-win pace, and, as I've shown, since the start of Divisional Play in 1969, 92 is the average number of wins by the 2nd place team in the AL East (both before and after the institution of the Wild Card in 1994), so it takes an average of 93 wins to win the Division.

And it's a lot easier to win the Pennant if you win the Division: Only 4 of a possible 24 teams Wild Card teams have won the AL Pennant, and the Yankees have never been one of them: The 2002 Anaheim Angels, the 2004 Boston Red Sox, the 2006 Detroit Tigers and the 2014 Kansas City Royals.

Winning the Division is crucial: Since 1995, when winning the Division, which they've done 13 times, the Yankees have won 9 Division Series, 7 Pennants and 5 World Series; when winning the Wild Card, they've won just 2 of a possible 7 Division Series, and no Pennants.

And tonight, the Yankees start a home weekend series with the AL Central Division-leading Twins. Here are the projected pitching matchups:

* Tonight, 7:05: James Paxton vs. Kyle Gibson.

* Tomorrow, 1:05: J.A. Happ vs. Jake Odorizzi.

* Sunday, 1:05: Domingo German vs. former Yankee Michael Pineda -- presuming he doesn't get hurt again between now and then.

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