* Mariano Rivera, a.k.a. Mo, the Sandman or the Hammer of God, pitcher, New York Yankees, an all-time record 652 saves, 13-time All-Star, 5-time World Champion. The 1st unanimous Hall-of-Famer ever: In his 1st year of eligibility, he received 100.0 percent of the vote. Babe Ruth didn't get every available vote when he was elected. Nor did Cy Young, nor did Ted Williams, nor did Willie Mays, nor did any other player you can think of.
* Harry Leroy Halladay III, a.k.a. Roy Halladay or Doc, pitcher, Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies, a 203-105 career record, an 8-time All-Star, a Cy Young Award winner in both Leagues, the American League in 2003 and the National League in 2010. In his 1st year of eligibility, he received 85.4 percent.
* Edgar Martinez, designated hitter, Seattle Mariners, .312 lifetime batting average, a 7-time All-Star, led the AL in batting in 1992 and 1995, and in runs batted in in 2000. In his 10th and last year in the writer's ballot, he also received 85.4 percent. And...
* Michael Cole Mussina, a.k.a. Mike or Moose, pitcher, Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees, 270 wins, 2,813 strikeouts, a 5-time All-Star and a 7-time Gold Glove winner (admittedly, less of a big deal for a pitcher than for any other position), reached the postseason 9 times, winning 2 AL Pennants. In his 6th year on the ballot, he received 76.7 percent.
These men got the necessary 75 percent of the vote. They will join the Veterans Committee honorees: Chicago White Sox outfielder Harold Baines; Rivera's predecessor as the all-time saves leader, Lee Smith, who pitched for several teams, mostly for the Chicago Cubs, and also briefly for the Yankees; the winner of the Ford Frick Award for broadcasters, Al Helfer, who broadcast for Mutual Broadcasting in the 1940s and '50s; and the winner of the J.G. Taylor Spink Award for sportswriters, Jayson Stark of The Athletic, formerly of The Philadelphia Inquirer, as inductees into the Hall of Fame this coming July.
It seems churlish to say, so soon after these men have been elected, that any of them is unworthy of the honor. I was never convinced that Edgar Martinez belongs. To me, he seemed like the classic example of how to decide the status of a borderline guy who is not yet in: "If you have to ask, the answer is, 'No.'"
But, as befitting his borderline status, I can't honestly give a definitive reason why he shouldn't be in. The fact that he spent most of his career as a designated hitter is the kind of argument that only a purist, or an ignorant Mets fan, might make.
As for Halladay, when he was killed in a plane crash after the 2017 season, I guessed that he might receive a sympathy vote, and get in sooner than he otherwise would have. But, having gotten over 85 percent of the vote on the 1st try suggests that he would have gotten in this time even if he had lived.
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There were 5 players who got between 40 and 75 percent of the vote, all of them with a higher percentage than they got last year, missing this time, but suggesting that they will eventually get in through the writers' ballot: Curt Schilling, 60.9 percent; Roger Clemens, 59.5 percent; Barry Bonds, 59.1 percent; Larry Walker, 54.6 percent; and Omar Vizquel, 42.8 percent.
For Schilling, Clemens, and Bonds, this was the 7th year on the ballot. For Walker, it was the 9th, making next year's the 10th and last, and if he doesn't make it, he'll have to get in through the Veterans Committee, or not at all. For Vizquel, it was the 2nd try.
Schilling has over 3,000 career strikeouts and an enviable postseason pitching record, but he might not be in yet because of all the feathers he's ruffled. If character truly counts, he goes from a good choice to a borderline choice.
And speaking of character and for how much it counts, Clemens and Bonds are still under the steroid cloud, despite Clemens' acquittal in a court of law. The fact that Clemens and Bonds, both of whom have overwhelming career statistics, are getting closer to the magic 75 suggests that maybe, just maybe, the writers believe they have been punished enough for whatever cheating they may have done, and are getting closer to being willing to overlook it.
Or maybe they're just warming up for the election of 2022, when both Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz will become eligible. But, based on how the baseball world reacted to each of these men, we can guess that Big Papi will be elected that year, and A-Rod will not.
This is despite the facts that, when he got caught, A-Rod came clean, and Big Papi got caught, and continues to lie about it to this day. People hate the Yankees, and, as the Yankees' biggest rivals, they love the Red Sox, and they want to believe that the Yankees' achievements are illegitimate, while their opponents' achievements are worthy of admiration, and not of suspicion. The truth is, it shouldn't work that way, given the evidence that we have.
If you are wondering about the other major known or suspected steroid cheats: Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro have failed to get 5 percent of the votes on a ballot, and thus have dropped off the ballot completely, and are waiting to become eligible through the Veterans Committee. Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield and Sammy Sosa are hanging on, and I'll get to them shortly.
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The following players got between 5 and 40 percent of the vote, making it unlikely that they will ever get in through the writers' ballot:
* Fred McGriff, 39.8 percent in his 10th and final year on the ballot. This guy hit 493 home runs, was never seriously suspected of cheating, was on winning teams, and is liked by nearly everybody who watched him and played with him. He has been robbed. I suspect that the Veterans Committee will elect him on his 1st try with them.
* Manny Ramirez, 22.8 percent in his 3rd year. He only gained 0.8 percent over last year. Here's a guy who, like Clemens and Bonds, was good enough that he didn't have to cheat, but he did anyway. And he proved himself to be someone of a very low character. In spite of over 500 home runs, I don't think he'll ever get in.
* Jeff Kent, 18.1 percent in his 6th year. Being the all-time home run leader at the position of 2nd base has helped his Hall of Fame chances about as much as a degree in ancient astrology has helped someone go from barista to manager at Starbucks.
* Scott Rolen, 17.2 percent in his 2nd year. The Hall doesn't have many 3rd basemen, and this may work to Rolen's advantage. After all, for most of his career, the only 3rd baseman with notably better stats and a comparable fielding acumen was A-Rod.
* Billy Wagner, 16.7 percent in his 4th year. Among left-handed pitchers, only John Franco has more career saves (barely, 424 to 422). What hurts Wagner is the statistics that make him, arguably, the worst relief pitcher in postseason history, even worse than Armando Benitez.
* Todd Helton, 16.5 percent in his 1st year. Being a hitter for the Colorado Rockies, in the high elevation of Denver, hurts him, as it has Larry Walker. But being a contact hitter, a hitter for average, first and a power hitter second may actually help him.
* Gary Sheffield, 13.6 percent in his 5th year. Over 500 home runs, but that asterisk likely means it's the Veterans Committee or bust.
* Andy Pettitte, 9.9 percent in his 1st year. He was far more honest about what he did (very briefly) than some others we've mentioned. He won 256 games in the 5-man rotation era, and a record 19 more in postseason play. It was probably asking too much to have the writers elect 3 Yankee pitchers at the same time. I'd be very surprised if the Hooded Hawk doesn't gain significantly next year, and I think the writers will let him in before his eligibility with them runs out.
* Sammy Sosa, 8.5 percent in his 7th year. With steroids, he hit 609 career home runs. Without them, he might have had half as many. He's not getting in unless the Veterans Committee is really lenient about performance-enhancing drugs.
* Andruw Jones, 7.5 percent in his 2nd year. Here's a guy who played 17 major league seasons, reached the postseason in 13 of them, hit 434 home runs and won 10 Gold Gloves. How could he not even get 8 percent of the Hall of Fame vote? He's going to rise in the coming years.
These players, all in their 1st year of eligibility, got very few votes, and thus fell off the ballot completely: Michael Young, 9 votes for 2.1 percent; Lance Berkman and the steroid-tainted Miguel Tejada, 5 years votes for 1.2 percent; Roy Oswalt, 4 votes for 0.9 percent; and Placido Polanco, 2 voted for 0.5 percent.
These players, all in their 1st year of eligibility, got no votes at all, and thus fell off the ballot completely: Rick Ankiel, Jason Bay, Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland, Travis Hafner, Ted Lilly, Derek Lowe, Darren Oliver, Juan Pierre, Vernon Wells, and Kevin Youkilis.
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Based on the preceding, who is likely to be elected next year? Among the first-time hitters are Derek Jeter (3,465 hits), Adam Dunn (462 home runs), Jason Giambi (440), Paul Konerko (439), Alfonso Soriano (412), and Bobby Abreu (doesn't have a standout career stat). Among the first-time pitchers are Cliff Lee and Josh Beckett. Of these, the only one under a legitimate steroid cloud is Giambi.
Usually, 3 or 4 guys get in via the writers, but I don't see that happening next year. Of the first-timers, Jeter is the only clear "Yes." The only holdover who has a serious chance is Schilling, unless the writers are finally willing to say that Clemens and Bonds have been punished enough, or are willing to let Larry Walker in on his final try.
We are in for some interesting Baseball Hall of Fame elections in the early 2020s. Not just because of the various controversies, during and after his career, that have overshadowed Schilling's on-field achievements, but because the steroid question is going to be forced in 2022 with the eligibility of A-Rod and Papi.
Three years from now, give or take a few days, we will know whether the writers are willing to overlook PED use for all, some, or none. Given what we have seen, about their feelings for the Yankees and the Red Sox, I'm still thinking it will be Clemens and Ortiz in, and Rodriguez out. After all, it is widely presumed that Clemens wasn't cheating while with the Red Sox.
Is that true? We may never know for sure.
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