And then there is CC Sabathia, who has announced that the 2019 season will be his last in the major leagues. Presuming he keeps his word, he would become eligible for the Hall of Fame in the election of January 2025. Does he have the stats, and the performance record, to be elected? If not, would one more good season make the difference?
Carsten Charles Sabathia Jr. was born on July 21, 1980, in Vallejo, California, in the East Bay section of the San Francisco Bay Area. Why he uses his initials, or writes them without periods, "CC," I don't know.
He is, thus far, the most successful product of the Reviving Baseball in the Inner Cities (RBI) program. Baseball America magazine considered him Northern California's top prospect going into the 1998 Draft.
And yet, it wasn't clear that baseball would be his top sport. He was an All-State tight end at Vallejo High School, received a scholarship to play football at UCLA, and the University of Hawaii was willing to let him play both baseball and football. He also played basketball at Vallejo.
The Cleveland Indians drafted him and showed him the money, and he was in the major leagues within 3 years. He made his major league debut on April 8, 2001, at Jacobs Field (now Progressive Field) in Cleveland, starting for the Indians against the Baltimore Orioles, and wearing Number 52, the only uniform number he has ever worn. He went 5 2/3rd innings, allowing 3 runs on 3 hits and 2 walks, with 3 strikeouts, and did not figure in the decision. The Indians won, 4-3.
Despite starting the season at only 20 years old, and having a rough 4.39 ERA, CC went 17-5, and was a major factor in the Indians winning the American League Central Division title. He came in 2nd in the American League Rookie of the Year voting, behind Ichiro Suzuki of the Seattle Mariners -- meaning he should have won it, because, except by the very letter of the law, Ichiro was no rookie. (Ichiro was 28 and had previously played 9 seasons in Japan's "major leagues.")
The Indians had won 6 Division titles in 7 seasons from 1995 to 2001, but that team began to be broken up, and by the time they made the Playoffs again in 2007, CC was one of the few holdovers. He made the All-Star Game while with the Indians in 2003, 2004 and 2007.
In 2006, he led the AL in complete games with 6 and shutouts with 2 -- which shows how much the game had changed over the preceding 20 years. In 2007, he went 19-7, and led the AL in starts and innings pitched, as the Tribe won the Division and came within 1 win of a Pennant, beaten out by the Boston Roid Sox. He received the AL's Cy Young Award.
In 2008, the emergence of Cliff Lee as an ace made CC expendable -- although trading him turned out to be a mistake, as Lee would leave via free agency. After starting the season 6-8, the Indians traded CC to the Milwaukee Brewers, and he went 11-2 down the stretch, for an overall record of 17-10, and helped them reach the Playoffs for the 1st time in 26 years, taking the National League Wild Card.
CC was now, even more than Lee, the biggest free-agent catch among pitchers, and, with George Steinbrenner still alive (but having ceded operational control to his sons Hal and Hank) and Gene Michael still a key advisor, general manager Brian Cashman opened the vault, signing him to a 7-year contract worth $161 million. At the time, it was the largest contract ever given to a pitcher.
At 290 pounds, CC became the heaviest Yankee ever, and the myth that the Pinstripes were "slimming" was shattered forever (if not already done so by David Wells). But he wore the Pinstripes well: In 2009, he went 19-8 -- 8-6 in the 1st half, 11-2 in the 2nd, including 5-0 in August -- with a 3.37 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP.
He won Game 1 of the AL Division Series against the Minnesota Twins, and Games 1 and 4 of the AL Championship Series against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, with a 1.13 ERA that earned him the series' Most Valuable Player award. He lost Game 1 of the World Series to the Philadelphia Phillies, but kept the Yankees in Game 4 long enough for the bats and the bullpen to win it. He was set to start Game 7, but the Yankees won the Series in 6. Overall, he went 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA in the 2009 postseason.
He made the All-Star Game again in 2010, leading the major leagues in wins for the 2nd straight season, going 21-7. He was named an All-Star again in 2011 and 2012. He helped the Yankees win the AL Wild Card in 2010, and the AL East in 2011 and 2012. In 2012, he went the distance in the decisive Game 5 of the AL Division Series against the Orioles.
But a knee injury and a significant weight loss -- shocked into it by a cousin's early death from heart disease -- curtailed him in 2013, and the Yankees missed the Playoffs. His knee bothered him for much of 2014, and the Yankees missed the Playoffs again.
Concerned that his weight loss actually hurt his effectiveness as a pitcher, he reported to 2015 Spring Training at a Yankee record 305 pounds. He only went 6-10, but the Yankees did reach the Wild Card Game.
Injuries continued to plague him in 2016 (the Yankees missed the Playoffs), 2017 (CC's pitching enabling the Yankees to reach the Wild Card and got to Game 7 of the ALCS against the Houston Astros) and 2018 (the Yankees reached the Wild Card and got to the ALDS against the Red Sox). He signed new 1-year contracts after the 2017 and 2018 seasons. Also following the 2017 season, he went to rehabilitation for alcoholism.
Going into the 2019 season, the Big Fella's career stats read as follows: A record of 246 wins and 153 losses, for a winning percentage of .617; an ERA of 3.70, and an ERA+ of 117; a WHIP of 1.254; 2,986 strikeouts, meaning 3 good starts, maybe even 2 very good starts, would put him in the 3,000 Strikeout Club; 6 All-Star berths, a Cy Young Award and 4 other top-5 finishes.
He won 106 games for the Indians, and has 129 wins so far for the Yankees, making him one of the few pitchers to win 100 for 2 different teams. He had 1,265 K's for the Indians and 1,593 so far for the Yanks, making him one of the few pitchers to fan 1,000 for 2 different teams.
He has reached the postseason 10 times, with 3 different teams: Cleveland in 2001 and '07; Milwaukee in 2008; and the Yankees in 2009, '10, '11, '12, '15, '17 and '18. In postseason play, he is 10-7 with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.546 WHIP. So reaching the postseason that many times helps him, but what he's actually done in the postseason really doesn't.
Of all pitchers in the post-1920 Lively Ball Era, only 2 pitchers have more wins than his 246, a higher winning percentage than his .617, and more strikeouts than his 2,986. Two. And only one is a fellow lefthander, Randy Johnson. The other is Roger Clemens.
Should that be enough to get CC in? Not necessarily: Clemens is not in, but the reason he's not in has never been seriously applied to CC.
Even the 3,000 Strikeout Club is no guarantee. Of the 16 current members, 2 are eligible but not in: Clemens and Curt Schilling. Another, Bert Blyleven, took a few years to get in, despite having 3,701.
On the other hand, Clemens and Schilling have both fallen under the cloud of steroid suspicions. Take those two out, and, with Mussina's election, every eligible pitcher with at least 2,833 is in. (Mickey Lolich had 2,832, and is not in.)
Baseball-Reference.com, a website which is your friend whether you know it or not, has what they call a Hall of Fame Monitor, on which a "Likely HOFer" is at 100. CC is at 113, meaning he should get in. They also have "Hall of Fame Standards," which is weighted more toward career stats, and on which the "Average HOFer" is at 50. On that scale, CC is at 46, meaning he falls a little short.
They also have "Similarity Scores," comparing players of the same (or similar) position to each other. According to them, statistically speaking, the 10 pitchers most similar to CC are Pettitte, Mussina, Bartolo Colon, Wells, Tim Hudson, Luis Tiant, Schilling, Kevin Brown, Jack Morris and Bob Welch.
For the moment, 2 are in, Mussina and Morris; 2 others could make it in the next few years, Pettitte and Schilling; Tiant has his supporters, but this has not yet translated into election through the Veterans Committee; and the rest are unlikely to ever get in.
Does character help? CC has been to rehab for booze, but he has never been involved in a personal scandal, has always been beloved by his teammates, and is much involved with charity, both in New York and in his native East Bay. By all accounts, he's a terrific guy. It could help him.
It looks like CC is a borderline case. Could one more good season put him over the top? Especially if it's another title season for the Yankees? Maybe. But, for the moment, while I would vote for him, I don't think the Baseball Writers Association of America would.
Even with one more good season, he could have to wait a few years for the writers to vote him in. Or else he may have to wait for the Veterans Committee. But I think he will get in eventually.
The question is, given his weight, and knowing that both Kirby Puckett and Tony Gwynn died young in part due to being very overweight, will CC live long enough to see his election? I hope so.
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