One Does Not Simply Lose 1-0 In a Pennant Race. It Is Folly.

When your team is coming down the home stretch of the season, and there's games between you and the last Playoff spot in your League, you don't show up against another Playoff contender and put up only 1 run on 3 hits.

If one was a baseball fan and a Lord of the Rings fan, one might say, "One does not simply fail to hit in a big game. It is folly.

And, right now, the Yankees are a team of folly.

Last night, the Yankees opened a 3-game home series with the American League Central Division-leading Kansas City Royals, the most consequential game between the 2 teams since 1985.

Michael Pineda started, and went 7 innings, allowing just 1 run (unearned), 3 hits, and no walks. By any measure (unless you're one of these guys who thinks a man goes the distance unless he gets shelled), this was a very good performance.

Here's what the Yankees got off James Shields, the former Tampa Bay ace now leading the rotation in Kansas City: A double by Brett Gardner in the 4th inning, Carlos Beltran getting hit by a pitch in the next at-bat, a single by Chase Headley in the 5th, and a single by some guy named Derek Jeter in the 9th. That was it.

Jeter singled after Jacoby Ellsbury opened the bottom of the 9th by flying out. Joe Girardi pinch-ran Antoan Richardson for Jeter. The tying run in the bottom of the 9th, and Jeter gets removed. For a guy about to turn 31, playing his 11th major league game, with a career OPS of .746 -- in the minor leagues. Some people (I'm not going to print their names here) might say this was a good thing, but it sure sounds like an insult to me.

Only then did Royals manager Ned Yost pull Shields for reliever Wade Davis. Richardson stole 2nd. But Davis struck out Gardner, and, as he did with the tying and Pennant-winning runs on base for the Mets in the NLCS clincher in 2006, Carlos Beltran never took the bat off his shoulder, and he struck out, too.

Royals 1, Yankees 0. Or was it New York Red Bulls 0-1 Sporting Kansas City?

Pineda has now pitched 10 games for the Yankees this season. In those games, the Yankees have scored 16 runs. His ERA is 1.80. He's 3-4. (Shields is now 13-7, and Davis picked up his 1st save of the season.)

There are 23 games left. The Yankees are now 4 1/2 games out of the 2nd Wild Card spot.

2008 World Series: Phillies in 5

Here's my predictions for the 2008 World Series, between the National League Champion Philadelphia Phillies and the American League Champion Tampa Bay Rays:

Game 1, tonight at Tropicana "Field": Cole Hamels for the Phils vs. Scott Kazmir for the Rays. Hamels was the MVP of the NLCS. Home-field advantage has been the biggest key to the Rays' success.

I think if Hamels is on his game, and Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley take advantage of the hitters' "park" they'll be in, the Phillies will take Game 1, and this could be a short Series. The Phils might be able to shake off a loss by their ace on the road in Game 1, but the Rays would probably not be able to handle a loss by their ace at home in Game 1. Phils, 1-0. (That's the number of games; I'm not going to predict scores.)

Game 2, tomorrow night at the Trop: Brett Myers vs. James Shields. This may be the Rays' best chance at a win, as Shields is probably their best starter right now, and Myers is hardly at Hamels' level. Tie, 1-1.

Game 3, Saturday night at Citizens Bank Park: Jamie Moyer vs. Matt Garza. Garza was the MVP of the ALCS. But he's never pitched in anything like a World Series game, and not in anything like a postseason crowd in The Fighting City of Philadelphia. Moyer, a month shy of his 46th birthday, wasn't on the Phils' 1980 World Champions, but it sure seems like it. (A Philly-area native, he was at the Phils' victory parade. His big-league debut was with the Chicago Cubs in 1986.)

The Philly fans are going to be beyond nuts, sensing perhaps their best chance at a World Championship in any sport since the '83 76ers -- the '93 Phils were not going to beat the Toronto Blue Jays, the Flyers haven't had a Cup-worthy goalie since Bernie Parent, and deep down I think they knew the Eagles were not going to beat the New England Patriots in that Super Bowl. Phils, 2-1.

Game 4, Sunday night at CBP: Joe Blanton vs. Andy Sonnastine. This could be the Rays' last chance to make it a competitive Series, but Blanton has become a completely different pitcher since coming over in a midseason trade with Oakland. Phils, 3-1.

Game 5: Hamels vs. Kazmir, presumably. It won't make the Rays a total "fraud," but it will be cold water in the face, showing that they have work to do to earn the respect of baseball fans who, a year after the 2007 World Series, have already brushed last year's Colorado Rockies off as a fluke, albeit an entertaining one. Phils, 4-1 and a parade down Broad Street.

As Richie Ashburn would've said, "Hard to believe, Harry"? No, "Bet yer house on it, Harry!"

OK, considering the Bush Recession, don't bet your house on it. Especially since your mortgage company may have already done so. But the Phils will win.

UPDATE: While my pre-postseason predictions were really wrong -- I only got 1 out of 4 Division Series right -- my Series prediction turned out to be right on the money, including guessing which game the Rays would win.