October 22, 2019: The World Series gets underway tonight, at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. The Houston Astros, Champions of the American League, host the Washington Nationals, Champions of the National League.
The Nationals have been playing in the Nation's Capital since 2005. Before that, from 1969 to 1994, they were the Montreal Expos. The Expos had the best record in Major League Baseball when the Strike of '94 hit, and, while they were still competitive for a while after that, financially, they never recovered, and were moved 10 years later. Tonight's Game 1 will be the 1st World Series game in franchise history. (They previously came within 1 game of a Pennant in 1981.)
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October 22, 1994, 25 years ago: Had the 1994 Major League Baseball season been allowed to reach its conclusion, then, barring postponement, this would have been the day that Game 1 of the 1994 World Series was played.
How would that season have played out?
A more important question might be, "How would that season have been saved?" How about this: It's 1989, and Commissioner Bart Giamatti meets with Pete Rose. Instead of making the best deal he can, as in our history, Rose comes clean, and accepts a ban, with the idea that he can apply for reinstatement in 3 years.
The stress of the story for Giamatti is over, and, on September 1, 1989, he has a minor heart attack, instead of the fatal one that we know. He recovers in time to deal with the earthquake-stricken World Series the next month.
In 1992, Giamatti is still alive and in office, Fay Vincent is still his deputy, and Bud Selig is the owner of the Milwaukee Brewers, and the Chairman of baseball's "Executive Committee," which would make him 2nd in line, but he can't become Commissioner.
Rose applies for reinstatement, and Giamatti gives it to him. He gets into the Hall of Fame, albeit not in his 1st year of eligibility. And, still, the only team that will hire him is the Cincinnati Reds, and only as a "club ambassador," essentially a corporate schmoozer. He will have no role in the running of the team, at all.
In 1994, Giamatti is still alive and in office, and, with the Commissioner not being a team owner (in other words, not the hardliner Selig), a deal is reached to avoid a strike. Matt Williams finishes with 58 home runs, Ken Griffey Jr. with 56. Jeff Bagwell falls 2 short of the record for doubles, with 65. And Tony Gwynn finishes with a .396 batting average, still the highest since Ted Williams in 1941. Cal Ripken doesn't get hurt, and his consecutive games played streak is intact, and he will surpass Lou Gehrig the following June, rather than in September as in the history we know.
About 2/3rds of the regular season had been played when the strike began on August 12. Here were the standings:
We can't know what would have happened, at least not with any certainty. Key players could have gotten hurt. Key players could have gone into serious slumps. Players not expected to become key could have developed. A tragedy could have happened. For all we know, Ripken's streak could have ended before reaching Lou Gehrig's record of 2,130. Instead, his streak was considered resumed when baseball was, on April 26, 1995, and he broke the record on September 6.
But let's put aside the possibilities of individual achievements, such as the possibilities of milestones: Gwynn batting .400, Bagwell breaking the single-season doubles record, and somebody hitting 62 home runs, all of which were considered possible. Let's focus only on the teams.
Further, let's take the safe route, and say that these standings would be the standings at the end of the regular season. This was intended to be the 1st season with 3 Divisions, plus a Wild Card team, making the Playoffs in each League. Also, in the format used from 1994 (well, 1995) to 2011, the Wild Card team could not face the Champion of its own Division in the Division Series.
If so, the Playoff matchups would have been as follows:
American League Division Series: New York Yankees, Eastern Division Champions with the League's best overall record, vs. Cleveland Indians, Wild Card winners.
ALDS: Chicago White Sox, Central Division Champions, vs. Texas Rangers, Western Division Champions.
National League Division Series: Montreal Expos, Eastern Division Champions with the League's best overall record, vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, Western Division Champions.
NLDS: Cincinnati Reds, Central Division Champions, vs. Atlanta Braves, Wild Card winners.
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The regular season would have ended on October 2. So the Division Series would have started on October 4, and run no later than October 11.
The Reds beat the Braves in the 1995 NLDS, 3 straight, so I have little doubt that they would have beaten the Braves again, despite the Braves' success both earlier and later in the decade. So, let's say, Reds in 4.
We have little to go on with the Expos: They didn't reach the postseason between 1981, when they lost the NLCS to the Dodgers by 1 run, and 2012, by which point they were the Washington Nationals. On the other hand, from 1989 to 2007, the Dodgers didn't win a postseason series. In fact, in that 19-season stretch, they won exactly 1 postseason game. The Expos had the best record in the majors that season, and I think they would have gotten their revenge for 1981. Expos in 3.
The Yankees lost to the Indians in the 1997 ALDS, but beat them in the 1998 ALCS. The Indians won the Pennant in 1995, while the Yankees lost the ALDS to the Seattle Mariners. But the Indians weren't there yet. Yankees in 4.
The Rangers had a losing record when the Strike hit. Whether they would have become the 1st team ever to make the Playoffs with a sub.-500 record, I don't know. But the White Sox were the 1 team that really worried me, as a Yankee Fan, that season. They were loaded. I can easily see them sweeping the Rangers in 3 straight.
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In the League Championship Series, the Reds, some of whom were still there from their 1990 World Series win, would have had their hands full. Pedro Martinez, already building a reputation as a headhunter, might still have been effective enough to provide the difference. Expos in 5.
Yankees vs. White Sox is a tougher measure. Now, I'll have to go back, and see how the pitching would have been set up, to see who would win which games.
The last 5 starting pitchers the Yankees used before the Strike hit were, in this order, Scott Kamieniecki, Sterling Hitchcock, Jim Abbott, Jimmy Key and Melido Perez. In the last few weeks, Terry Mulholland had become less effective, and manager Buck Showalter essentially switched Hitchcock into Mulholland's place in the rotation, and Mulholland into Hitchcock's place in the bullpen.
You'll notice that, of these 6 pitchers, only Key was still there when they won the World Series 2 years later, and, despite still being effective, he was gone right after that. Arriving the next year would be rookies Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera (who, lest we forget, began his career as a starting pitcher) and trade acquisition David Cone.
The last game the Yankees played was their 113th. So, presuming no injuries or shocking losses of effectiveness, the last 5 starters, Games 158 to 162, would have been Perez, Kamieniecki, Hitchcock, Abbott and Key.
Buck could have mixed things up, letting a September callup start, and arranging his rotation so that Key, the ace, pitched Game 1 of the ALDS. But Buck has never been known for thinking outside the box. He's a .357 mind in a .44-caliber world.
In the ALDS, you really only need 4 starters, and you might be able to get away with using only 3. Of the 4, Abbott, who famously reached the majors despite not having a right hand, and pitched a no-hitter for the Yankees the year before, was the least effective of these starters in the 1994 season. So I'll presume that he's the odd man out, and that Buck's ALDS rotation would have been Key, Perez, Scotty the K and Hitch.
I have the Yankees beating the Indians in 4 games, so there's no reason to deviate from this for the ALCS. Having a 3-man rotation could work in the LCS, but it's probably not a good idea unless you have a great bullpen.
The '94 Yanks had the troubled Steve Howe as closer (even in a shortened season, while he was 3-0, he had only 15 saves and finished 25 games in 40 appearances), backed by Mulholland, Bob Wickman, the aging and no longer effective pair of ex-Mets Bob Ojeda and Jeff Reardon, and a group of pitchers you've probably long forgotten (or, if you're too young to remember 1994, you may never have heard of), the best of whom was Xavier Hernandez. He, like Wickman, contributed 6 saves. As I said, Rivera had yet to make his major league debut.
The Yankees had only played the White Sox 6 times before the Strike, going 2-4. The ChiSox had a quick-strike clutch capability: In their last full rotation, they had games where they scored 6 runs in the top of a 10th inning, and 5 runs in the top of a 12th. They also had the back-to-back AL Most Valuable Player, Frank Thomas, the man known as the Big Hurt. And while many of you will remember Ozzie Guillen as a crazy manager, at this point, he was a slick-fielding shortstop, and nobody had any idea that he was crazy.
Manager Gene Lamont had a strict 4-man rotation: Jack McDowell, Wilson Alvarez, Jason Bere and Alex Fernandez. All were doing pretty well at the time of the start of the Strike. He could probably have set them up any way he wanted for the ALDS, and, since I have them sweeping the Rangers, he could probably have had them ready to go in that order for the ALCS.
ALCS Game 1 would have been Perez vs. McDowell at Yankee Stadium. McDowell usually didn't pitch well in The Bronx, as we found out the next year, when the Yankees signed him, and, late in the season, he pitched poorly, got booed off the mound, and gave the crowd the finger. The New York Post labeled him "JACK THE FLIPPER" on their back page. The Daily News, in a rare example of being more vulgar than the Post, called him "JACK ASS."
But I never had that much confidence in Melido. The less-crazy, but also less-effective, younger brother of Pascual Perez, he never pitched so big a game in the history that we know. He might have gotten rattled. The Pale Hose win Game 1.
Neither Kamieniecki nor Alvarez was a world-beater, but I can see the Yankees rallying to take Game 2. We move on to Chicago, to the ballpark then known as "the new Comiskey Park," now Guaranteed Rate Field. Bere could have won the Cy Young Award that year (instead, it went to Cone, then with the Kansas City Royals), and, based on the way Hitchcock pitched in the 1995 Playoffs, I can see Bere giving the Sox a 2-1 edge. Key outpitches Fernandez in Game 4 to tie it. But McDowell was too good for Perez, and the Sox win Game 5.
We go back to Game 6. Can the Yankee Fans give their boys the home field advantage they need? Hopefully, they're not in it just to give Don Mattingly his 1st World Series appearance. That should be irrelevant. But I can imagine Mattingly taking Alvarez deep. I can imagine Wade Boggs getting 4 hits and 2 RBIs. I can imagine Kamieniecki digging deep, and the bullpen coming through, to send the ALCS to a Game 7.
Bere against Hitchcock. Hitch, a natural reliever, might be exhausted. Maybe he only goes 4 or 5 innings, and Mulholland comes on to bail him out. If, between them, they can keep it to, say, 2 runs over 6 innings, and the Yankees can score 2, then here it comes. I see Paul O'Neill and Bernie Williams taking their first steps toward being Yankee postseason legends.
Bernie hit walkoff home runs in Game 1 of the ALCS in 1996, and in the same game in 1999. Maybe he follows Chris Chambliss -- and presages Aaron Boone and, to our new regret, Jose Altuve -- and hits the Pennant-winning home run. A Yankee center fielder hitting a Pennant-winning home run, possibly on October 20, Mickey Mantle's birthday.
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So here we are, on October 22, 1994, at the Olympic Stadium in Montreal, for Game 1 of the World Series, between the New York Yankees and the Montreal Expos. Remember, the better won-lost record, and who won that year's All-Star Game (the National League did, in Pittsburgh), have no relevance here. Up until this year, it was always the NL getting the home-field advantage in even-numbered years, as this was, while the AL got it in odd-numbered years. With the Strike canceling the '94 Series, the pattern was reversed from 1995 to 2002. (Which could have ended up hurting the Yankees against the Braves in 1996!)
Celine Dion, a native of the Montreal suburb of Charlemagne, Quebec, sings both "The Star-Spangled Banner" and "O, Canada." Prime Minister Jean Chretien and President Bill Clinton both throw out ceremonial first balls. Bob Costas and Joe Morgan have the calls for NBC.
The Yankee lineup -- keeping in mind that Games 1 and 2, and, if necessary, 6 and 7, will be played in the National League Champions' home park, so there will be no designated hitter -- is as follows:
3B Wade Boggs
RF Paul O'Neill
LF Danny Tartabull
1B Don Mattingly
C Mike Stanley
CF Bernie Williams
SS Mike Gallego
2B Pat Kelly
P Jimmy Key
Tartabull, in the history we know, only played 15 games in left field. But it's better to have his bat in the lineup than that of the usual left fielder, Luis Polonia, who can always be put in as a defensive replacement if the Yanks get a lead.
But why put Tartabull 3rd and Mattingly 4th? Easy: Boggs and O'Neill were lefthanded hitters. Putting Mattingly 3rd would have made the Yankees more vulnerable to a lefthanded pitcher.
The key for the Montreal pitchers may be the bottom of the lineup. While the double-play combo of Gallego and Kelly was very sound defensively, neither was a particularly good hitter. And, with the pitcher batting, essentially, the Yankees would have to strike early for their best possible advantage.
The Expo lineup:
CF Marquis Grissom
LF Rondell White
RF Moises Alou
1B Larry Walker
C Darrin Fletcher
SS Wil Cordero
2B Mike Lansing
3B Sean Berry
P Pedro Martinez
Keeping in mind that this is not yet the Pedro of Boston, does this look like a "best record in baseball" lineup to you? None of these hitters are in the Hall of Fame. Walker has gotten some support for the Hall. (UPDATE: He has since been elected.) Grissom and Alou weren't that far below him. White, Fletcher and Lansing were decent hitters. And they were a good defensive team. But is this a team the 1994 Yankees should have been afraid of? Pedro's headhunting (already established) aside, no.
But maybe, after a long, tough regular season, and a long, tough ALCS, the Yankees are physically and emotionally exhausted. It worked against them in the World Series of 1923, 1951, 1952, 1964, 1976, 1978, 1996, 2001, 2003 and 2009, losing Game 1 each time. Of those 10 Series, the Yankees won 6 anyway: 1923, 1951, 1952, 1978, 1996 and 2009. And they weren't going to beat the Cincinnati Reds in 1976, no matter what. But it cost them badly in 1964, 2001 and 2003.
Pedro could well have been on top of his game. Maybe he seriously challenges the record for strikeouts in a Series game, set by Bob Gibson of the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 1 in 1968: 17. Expos 5, Yankees 1.
October 23, 1994, Game 2. The first ball is thrown out by Gary Carter, an Expo legend with a connection to New York baseball glory -- if not to the Yankees. Melido Perez starts against Butch Henry. This may come down to who has the better bullpen, and I can see the Yankees digging in and punishing the Expo relievers for Pedro's "sins." Yankees 7, Expos 2.
We cross the Border. October 25, 1994, Game 3. Robert Merrill, as was usually the case for World Series games at Yankee Stadium (this is the 1st one in 13 years), sings the National Anthems. Remembering how bad they made themselves look for an infamous September 1985 series with the Toronto Blue Jays, Yankee Fans do not boo the Canadian Anthem. The first ball is thrown out by Joe DiMaggio.
With the DH in place for this game, Game 4, and the now-necessary Game 5, here are the lineups:
3B Wade Boggs
CF Bernie Williams
RF Paul O'Neill
DH Danny Tartabull
1B Don Mattingly
C Mike Stanley
LF Luis Polonia
SS Mike Gallego
2B Pat Kelly
CF Marquis Grissom
LF Rondell White
RF Moises Alou
1B Larry Walker
C Darrin Fletcher
SS Wil Cordero
2B Mike Lansing
3B Sean Berry
DH Lenny Webster
The Expos didn't really have much of a bench. Webster was the best of a few not-so-hot choices. And Bernie, a switch-hitter, moves up to the 2nd slot, to prevent starting with 3 straight lefthanders, as it would be with Polonia in that slot.
Kamieniecki starts against Ken Hill. Boggs works a walk to start the Yankee side of the game, and the Yankees just slap away, with 14 hits, but, oddly, none of them home runs. In his 1st World Series home game, Don Mattingly breaks out of an 0-for-8 slump with 3 hits. Yankees 9, Expos 4.
October 26, 1994, Game 4. National Anthems by native New Yorker Billy Joel. First ball by Mickey Mantle. (Remember, he was still alive.) Pedro gets his 1st taste of Yankee Stadium, since he had never yet pitched in the AL, and there was no Interleague Play yet. The crowd gives him the business, and, having just turned 23 the day before, he doesn't know how to react. He's shaky, and doesn't get out of the 6th inning.
Remember Paul O'Neill hitting a game-changing homer off Mel Rojas of the Mets at Shea Stadium in 1998? You can be sure that every Met fan age 30 and up does. Can you imagine him hitting one off Rojas, then with the Expos, at Yankee Stadium in Game 4 of the 1994 World Series? I can. Meanwhile, Jimmy Key gets his breaking stuff working. Yankees 6, Expos 2.
October 27, 1994, Game 5. Suddenly, this Series doesn't look like the classic that many had hoped for. The Yankees can win it without having to go through Customs again.
New York native Tony Bennett sings the National Anthems. Don Larsen, having pitched a perfect game in Game 5 of the 1956 World Series, takes the mound at Yankee Stadium for this Game 5, and throws out the first ball -- but not to Yogi Berra. He still refuses to come to Yankee Stadium as long as George Steinbrenner owns the team. That refusal will last another 4 years until a peace is negotiated.
The Expos will have to win this game to send it back to Montreal. They give it their best shot. Showalter, whose instinct at this stage of his career is to stick by his starters (as we found out the next year, with Cone for 147 pitches in Seattle), realizes that Melido doesn't have his best stuff. He brings Mulholland in to pitch the 5th, 6th and 7th innings.
Butch Henry is no better than Melido, and the Yankees get to him in the 5th. It's 4-0 Expos, but the bases are loaded for Mattingly. Costas tells the TV viewers, "If Mattingly hits one out here, this stadium may just collapse from the noise." He doesn't, but he does slap a line drive into left-center to score 2. The floodgates open, and the Expos are drowned.
Wickman pitches the 8th and the 9th, and the final out is a Grissom fly ball to O'Neill. Yankees 7, Expos 5. Title 23. Bedlam in The Bronx. Most fans stay in the stands, though, as only a scattered few violate the order to stay off the field.
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What are the consequences of this World Series having happened? Bart Giamatti, having handed the Commissioner's Trophy to George Steinbrenner and Buck Showalter, announces his retirement, for health reasons. He dies in 1996, and, with Kenesaw Mountain Landis remembered as an imperious racist, Giamatti is frequently called the best Commissioner baseball has ever had.
Mickey Mantle dies right on schedule, but he's seen one last Yankee World Series win. But maybe, having seen this Series, it's his dying wish, rather than Joe DiMaggio's 4 years later, that George apologize to Yogi for the way he was treated in 1985. Mickey lives just long enough to see Yogi come back for Old-Timers Day 1995.
Yankee history plays out the same, right? Maybe not. Maybe Mattingly hangs on a little longer. Or maybe not.
But the bullpen is still questionable enough, and the Expos' finances the same, that the Yankees still acquire John Wetteland from the Expos for the 1995 season. Or maybe the postseason revenue helps the Expos keep him, and Bob Wickman remains the Yankees' closer through 1996. In reality, he was traded on August 23, 1996, and the key acquisition in that deal was Graeme Lloyd. Maybe Lloyd becomes the closer, or the trade is never made, and Wickman is the closer, with Mariano Rivera becoming the setup man. The Yankees win the 1996 World Series anyway.
Maybe the Expos can keep Pedro Martinez. The Boston Red Sox are still a factor -- even not yet having Pedro, they won the AL East in 1995 -- but they aren't the team they would be in the coming years, reaching the ALDS in 1998, the ALCS in 1999, the ALCS again in 2003, and winning it all in 2004. They barely survived the 1st 4 games of the ALCS with Pedro. Without him, forget it. Maybe it takes John W. Henry and his staff until 2007 (the '07 BoSox were a bit different from the '04 edition) to finally end "The Curse of the Bambino," ending their 89-year title drought.
The Expos hang on as contenders, and finally win the World Series in 1997, beating the Cleveland Indians. They remain financially stable, and play the 2003 NLCS against the Chicago Cubs in a new ballpark in downtown Montreal. But the Cubs beat them in 5 games, ending their Pennant drought at 58 years, and nobody outside the Chicago area ever hears of Steve Bartman. Jeff Weaver serves up a meatball to that other Alex Gonzalez, and the Cubs win the 2003 World Series, beating the Yankees to end their title drought at 95 years.
The Yankees win the World Series in 2004, beating the St. Louis Cardinals. Without the spectre of their 2004 ALCS collapse hanging over them, the Yankees beat the Los Angeles Angels in the 2005 ALDS, but the Chicago White Sox were too much a team of destiny to be denied in 2005. The Yankees march through 2006, knowing they can hit in the postseason, and beating first the Detroit Tigers, then the Oakland Athletics, and finally the Cardinals again, to win Title 29.
They watch the Red Sox win the 2007 World Series, and then the Mitchell Report -- released by former Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell of Maine, who has been Commissioner since leaving office and succeeding Giamatti in January 1995 -- comes out, implicating the Yankees but not the Red Sox.
In 2009, the revelations about David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez come out, making Mitchell look like a fool, and forcing his resignation and the installation, 6 years before it happened in real life, of Rob Manfred. (In real life, he had already negotiated for the owners in the strike threats of 2002 and 2006.)
Most fans come to accept that, if the Yankees' titles were tainted, then so were those of some of the teams that beat the Yankees at the various levels of the postseason. The matter is pretty much allowed to "die of silence," and Title 30 in 2009 is treated as, if not completely legit (it did involve Alex Rodriguez and Melky Cabrera, after all), then acceptable.
Mattingly, Jimmy Key and Larry Walker, with the extra boosts that the 1994 World Series give them, are in the Baseball Hall of Fame. So is Giamatti. So is Steinbrenner. Pedro Martinez still makes it, but his plaque shows him wearing an Expo cap, not a Red Sox cap as we know. Nobody who is in the Hall in the history we know is denied election.
Finally, it's the Florida Marlins who get moved, after the 2004 season, to become the Washington Nationals. And the 2019 World Series is still between the Nationals and the Houston Astros; it's just that the Nationals are the Ex-Marlins, not the Expos.
