Ted Keith of Sports Illustrated looked up the myth for a 2012 article. He found that it went back at least as far as the cover story for a 1934 issue of Time magazine, whose author (Time tended not to credit its author in those days, so the writer will have to remain unknown) suggested that it was already a well-known superstition, if not a previously published one:
Baseball superstition says that the team which is leading each major league on July 4 will come out ahead at the end of the season and play in the World Series. What lends weight to this superstition is that, during the past 25 years, it has been substantiated by fact two-thirds of the time.
Keith, writing in 2012:
More than three-quarters of a century later, the schedule has lengthened from 154 to 162 games, the majors have expanded from 16 teams in two leagues to 30 spread out over six divisions, and the playoffs now include 10 teams in a four-tiered system including this year's addition of the Wild Card play-in. Still, the old saw still has teeth: A team leading its division on July 4 will win it roughly 60 percent of the time, and including the Wild Card, will reach the postseason more than two-thirds of the time.
The stats he cited:More than three-quarters of a century later, the schedule has lengthened from 154 to 162 games, the majors have expanded from 16 teams in two leagues to 30 spread out over six divisions, and the playoffs now include 10 teams in a four-tiered system including this year's addition of the Wild Card play-in. Still, the old saw still has teeth: A team leading its division on July 4 will win it roughly 60 percent of the time, and including the Wild Card, will reach the postseason more than two-thirds of the time.
1901-1968, 1 Division per League: 89 out of 142 teams in 1st on July 4 finished 1st, 62.7 percent.
1969-1993, 2 Divisions per League: 57 out of 101, 56.4 percent.
1995-2011, 3 Divisions per League, 65 out of 109, 59.6 percent.
This year, the Yankees went into the 4th of July in 1st lace in the American League Eastern Division, with a nice lead of 6 1/2 games over the Tampa Bay Rays, against whom they began a 4-game series last night, at the Rays' ridiculous home, Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida.
Good old Aroldis Chapman: He sure knows how to make a relief outing interesting. Last night, he made it a little too interesting.
He had come into the game having converted 23 out of 25 save opportunities this season. A guy on Twitter told me that this was "elite." No, it's not. This is the New York Yankees, and we have different standards.
Wilcy Moore, Johnny Murphy, Jim Turner, Joe Page, Bob Kuzava, Bob Grim, Ryan Duren, Luis Arroyo, Sparky Lyle, Goose Gossage, John Wetteland and Mariano Rivera. These men have been elite closers for the Yankees. Why do I say this? Because they have been the closers on Yankee teams that won the World Series. That is the Yankees standard, none other.
(So why the hell does Don Mattingly have a Plaque in Monument Park?)
Going into this game, the Yankees had won seven of nine against the Rays this season. A Borg record? As it turned out, resistance would be futile, but it wasn't easy for the Yankees.
J.A. Happ started, and pitched into the 6th inning, allowing 1 run on 3 hits and 3 walks, striking out 5. Adam Ottavino finished the 6th, Tommy Kahnle pitched a perfect 7th, and Zack Britton pitched a scoreless 8th.
The Rays scored in the bottom of the 1st, but the Yankees took the lead in the top of the 3rd. Mike Ford led off the inning with a single, and took 2nd base on a passed ball. Mike Tauchman singled him home. After Brett Gardner struck out and DJ LeMahieu flew out, Tauchman got to 2nd on a wild pitch. Aaron Hicks doubled him home to make it 2-1 New York. Edwin Encarnacion made it 3-1 with a home run in the 7th.
It remained 3-1 when Aaron Boone sent for Chapman to start the 9th. The mission: Get 3 outs, allowing no runs or 1, but not 2.
Cliche Alert: Walks can kill you, especially the leadoff variety. Chapman walked Nate Lowe to start the inning. He struck Willy Adames out. But then Chapman gave up a double to Joey Wendle. 3-2. He got Travis d'Arnaud to fly out. Just 1 out to go.
Then Chapman decided to give us all, as Phil Rizzuto would have said, agita. He threw a wild pitch, allowing Wendle to reach 3rd. Then he threw another, and Wendle scored with the tying run. Then he gave up a single to Guillermo Heredia. Then he gave up a single to Yandy Diaz. Then he walked Tommy Pham. You know what I'm saying, blud? (Arsenal fans will get that joke.) He seemed determined to lose the game. Then he struck Austin Meadows out, to leave the bases loaded.
We went to the 10th inning, which should not have happened. Fortunately, the next 2 Rays pitchers were even worse than Chapman.
The 1st was Oliver Drake. Cliché Alert: Walks can kill you, especially the leadoff variety. Drake walked Gio Urshela. Then he walked Aaron Judge. Then Gardner laid down a fantastic bunt, which went from sacrifice to hit, because he beat it out. Bases loaded and nobody out. As they said on Seinfeld, "Got to love The Drake!"
Emilio Pagan came in to pitch, and LeMahieu, once again, was LeMachine: He singled home Urshela and Judge to give the Yankees the lead. Hicks struck out. Then Pagan put one right in Gary Sanchez' kitchen, and Sanchez cooked it. You might even say Sanchez saved Chapman's bacon. He drilled this ball into the upper deck in left field, 461 feet from home plate. That made it 8-3 Yankees.
And yet, having blown the save, but still officially being the Yankees pitcher when they retook the lead, Chapman stood to end up as the winning pitcher. There should be a rule that a pitcher who blows the save is ineligible for the win. As would be the case if the starting pitcher left with the lead before going 5 full innings, the decision for who should be the winning pitcher should then be up to the official scorer.
Boone sent Luis Cessa out to pitch the bottom of the 10th. Surely, even Cessa couldn't blow a 5-run lead. And, to be fair, he had been pitching much better lately.
Not this time: He began by striking Avisail Garcia out. But then he walked Lowe. Adames reached on an infield single. Cessa struck Wendle out. But d'Arnaud singled Lowe home. And then Cessa walked Heredia. And so many of us Yankee Fans started saying, "Oh no, here we go again."
Boone knew that Cessa was not going to get the last out before the Rays scored again. He brought in David Hale. He ended it by getting Diaz to ground to short, and Didi Gregorius took it, and stepped on 2nd base for the force play that eliminated Heredia.
Whew. Yankees 8, Rays 4. WP: Chapman (2-1). SV: Hale (2). LP: Drake (0-1). Attendance: 21,974, bad for a Yankee road game, but damn good for a Rays home game.
The Yankees have now won 8 out of 10 games against the Rays this season, and lead them by 7 1/2 games in the AL East. The Boston Red Sox also won last night, so the Yankees remain 11 games ahead of them.
The series continues tonight. Masahiro Tanaka starts for the Yankees, in his 1st start since getting shelled in London, and Brendan McKay starts for the Rays.
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