Lies, Big Maple and Statistics

"It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: The first is a fib, the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." -- Eliza Gutch, English author, 1891

"There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- Mark Twain, 1906, incorrectly attributing the line to Benjamin Disraeli, Prime Minister of Britain from 1874 to 1880

"I shall try not to use statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts, for support rather than for illumination." -- Andrew Lang, Scottish author, 1844-1912 -- a quote often misattributed, including by me, to Vin Scully, Brooklyn/Los Angeles Dodgers broadcaster from 1950 to 2016 

"Statistics are like a bikini bathing suit. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." -- Aaron Levenstein, economist, 1951

"If I stick one foot in an ice tray, and the other foot in an oven, according to a statistician, I should feel fine." -- Eddie Stanky, major league 2nd baseman, 1943-53, and manager, 1952-77

"Tell your statistics to shut up." -- Charles M. Schulz as Charlie Brown, Peanuts, sometime in the 1960s

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At the trading deadlines of 2016, 2017 and 2018, Yankee general manager Brian Cashman made some deals, and refused to make others, that, essentially, threw the team's chances to win the World Series, whatever those may have been, away, sacrificing those 3 seasons in order to keep his beloved "prospects" so that several big contracts would come off the team's books at the end of 2018, thus keeping his goal of staying under the luxury tax threshold the whole time, and putting the team in position to win in 2019 and in the 2020s.

At first, this looked like an incredibly stupid idea: The Yankees missed the Playoffs completely in 2016, missed winning the American League Eastern Division in 2017 and 2018, thus putting themselves into the AL Wild Card Game both times, fell 1 game short of the Pennant in 2017, and lost to their arch-rivals, the Boston Red Sox, in the 2018 AL Division Series.

Yesterday, Cashman made a movie which shows that he is serious about winning the whole damned thing in 2019. Having kept such prospects as 2nd baseman-shortstop Gleyber Torres, 3rd baseman Miguel Andujar, shortstop Didi Gregorius, 1st baseman Luke Voit; outfielders Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks and Clint Frazier; catcher Gary Sanchez, and pitchers Luis Severino and Chance Adams, he has now let a big prospect go.

He has traded the team's top prospect -- not counting the names above, who have already reached the majors and, except for the weak-hitting Frazier, done well -- pitcher Justus Sheffield, along with pitcher Erik Swanson and outfielder Dom Thompson-Williams, to the Seattle Mariners for pitcher James Paxton.

Paxton just turned 30. He is a starting pitcher, a lefthander, and is already a proven winner in the American League, not in the National League (something that has burned the Yankees a few times in recent years). These are all things that the Yankees need. He is 41-26 for his career. This past season, he had an ERA of 3.76 and a WHIP of 1.098, and became the 1st native of Canada -- British Columbia -- to pitch a no-hitter in MLB play on Canadian soil, against the Toronto Blue Jays on May 18. His ERA+ was just 108 for this season, good but not exciting, but was a very nice 140 the year before.

Because of his size -- 6-foot-4 and 235 solid pounds -- and his Canadian background, his nickname is Big Maple. I could tell you that his WAR for 2018 was 2.9, but forget about that. It's a made up statistic. As Charlie Brown said, "Tell your statistics to shut up." Or, as singer Edwin Starr said, "WAR! Huh! Good God, y'all! What is it good for? Absolutely nothin'!"

How about this: His career numbers against the Boston Red Sox: 4 games, all starts, 2-0, 25 1/3rd innings pitched, 7 runs, 20 hits, 3 walks, 22 strikeouts, an ERA of 2.49, and a mind-boggling WHIP of 0.908. Does that have your attention?

Of course, the only statistic that really matters is, Does it help the Yankees win? Anything else is lies or damned lies, and you should tell it to shut up.

For the moment, the Yankee rotation stacks up as follows:

1. Luis Severino
2. Masahiro Tanaka
3. James Paxton
4. CC Sabathia
5. Sonny Gray
Spot Starter/Emergency Long Man: Jonathan Loasiga

If Jordan Montgomery returns from Tommy John surgery, and is as good as he was before, then:

1. Luis Severino
2. Masahiro Tanaka
3. James Paxton
4. CC Sabathia
5. Jordan Montgomery
Spot Starters/Emergency Long Men: Sonny Gray, Jonathan Loasiga

I'd be fine with that, especially since it gives us 2 lefties in the rotation: CC in his final season, and Paxton. The Big Fella and the Big Maple.

Should Cashman get another starting pitcher? Yes, because you never know. Should it be J.A. Happ, who was good when he was brought in late last season, but is now a free agent? I wouldn't mind that at all: He would eliminate the need to count on both the aging CC and the question mark Montgomery. Should he get Bryce Harper? No: Bad attitude and can't throw. Should he get Manny Machado? No: Worse attitude.

Yankees' biggest need right now: Probably 2nd base, because Gregorius is going to be out for, at the least, much of the 1st half of the season, so Torres is going to move over. That means the 2nd baseman, in the meantime, will be career backup Ronald Torreyes, the unproven Tyler Wade, or, perhaps, bringing back Neil Walker, who was decent this season, but his contract has run out.

The Yankees are more ready for 2019 than they were at the start of yesterday. They could, however, be made more ready.

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Days until East Brunswick High School plays football again: See the following entry.

Days until the next East Brunswick-Old Bridge Thanksgiving high school football game: 2, this Thursday morning at 10:00 AM, at Old Bridge. Just 1 week. East Brunswick goes into the game a mere 2-7.

Days until the New Jersey Devils next play a local rival: 3, this Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, a 4:00 matinee at the Prudential Center in Newark. The next game against the Philadelphia Flyers, a.k.a. The Philth, is a Saturday matinee on January 12, 2019, at the Prudential Center. The next game against the New York Rangers, a.k.a. The Scum, will be on Thursday night, January 31, 2019, at the Prudential Center.

Days until Rutgers University plays football again: 4, in the regular-season finale, against Michigan State University, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan. Rutgers lost to Penn State at home last week, 20-7. The Nittany Scum didn't embarrass them, but they embarrassed themselves.

Days until Arsenal play again: 5, this coming Sunday, at 8:30 AM New York time, away to Dorset (South Coast) team Bournemouth. The Arsenal are sitting on a 16-game unbeaten streak in all competitions, which had included an 11-game winning streak.

Days until the New York Red Bulls play again: 5, this coming Sunday, at 5:00 PM, in the 1st leg of the MLS Eastern Conference Final, away to Atlanta United. The 2nd leg will be the following Thursday, at 7:00 PM, at Red Bull Arena in Harrison, New Jersey. The winner over the 2 legs will face the Western Conference Champion, either Sporting Kansas City or the Portland Timbers, in the MLS Cup Final on Saturday night, December 8. Thanks to the action on the final night of the regular season, when the Red Bulls won and Atlanta lost, the Red Bulls have the Supporters' Shield as overall regular season Champions, for the 3rd time, all in the last 6 seasons. So if they're in the MLS Cup Final, they will host it, and have their best chance ever at that elusive 1st MLS Cup win, in their 23rd season of play.

Days until the Red Bulls next play a "derby": Unknown. The 2019 MLS schedule hasn't been released yet, so we don't know when they will next play New York City FC, the Philadelphia Union, D.C. United or the New England Revolution.

Days until the next North London Derby: 12, on Sunday, December 2, at the Emirates Stadium. Under 2 weeks.

Days until the Democratic-controlled Congress will convene, and the impeachment process can begin: 44, on Thursday, January 3, 2019. A little over 6 weeks.

Days until the Baseball Hall of Fame vote is announced, electing Mariano Rivera: 64, on January 23, 2019. A little over 9 weeks.

Days until the U.S. national soccer team plays again: 74, on February 2, 2019, a friendly against Costa Rica at Avaya Stadium, home of the San Jose Earthquakes. This afternoon, a very young lineup held Italy to a scoreless draw until stoppage time, then let in a goal to lose 1-0 in Genk, Belgium.

Days until the Yankees' 2019 Opening Day: 128, on Thursday, March 28, home to the Baltimore Orioles. A little over 4 months. Four long months.

Days until the next Yankees-Red Sox series begins: 147, on Tuesday, April 16, 2019, at Yankee Stadium II. Under 5 months.

Days until the next Women's World Cup kicks off: 199,  on June 7, 2019, in France. Under 7 months. The U.S. team is 3-time and defending Champions.

Days until the Yankees and Red Sox play each other in London: 221, on June 29, 2019. A little over 7 months.


Days until the next Rutgers-Penn State game: 375, on Saturday, November 30, 2019, at Beaver Stadium in State College, Pennsylvania.

Days until my 50th Birthday, at which point I can join AARP and get discounts for travel and game tickets: 393, on December 18, 2019. A little over a year, or a little under 13 months.

Days until the Baseball Hall of Fame vote is announced, electing Derek Jeter: 428, on January 22, 2020. A little over a year, or a little over 14 months.

Days until the next Summer Olympics begins in Tokyo, Japan: 612, on July 24, 2020. A little over a year and a half, or a little over 20 months.

Days until the next Presidential election, when we can dump the Trump-Pence regime and elect a real Administration: 714, on November 3, 2020. Now under 2 years, or a little over 23 months.

Days until Liberation Day: 792, at noon on January 20, 2021. A little over 2 years, or a little under 26 months. Note that this is liberation from the Republican Party, not just from Donald Trump. Having Mike Pence as President wouldn't be better, just differently bad, mixing theocracy with plutocracy, rather than mixing kleptocracy with plutocracy.

Days until the next Winter Olympics begins in Beijing, China: 1,172, on February 4, 2022. A little over 3 years, or under 39 months.

Days until the next World Cup is scheduled to kick off: 1,462, on November 21, 2022, in Qatar. 4 years, or 48 months. The charges of corruption against Qatar may yet mean that they will lose the tournament, in which case it will be moved to a nation where it would not be too hot to play it in June and July.