Vance the Bully's Flunky

Look, at this point, to paraphrase the opening of the TV show Castle, there are two kinds of people: Psychopaths, and people who want Donald Trump out of the Presidency.

The problem is, that would leave "JD Vance," as he currently writes his name, with no periods on the initials, like CC Sabathia, as President. And, given who he owes, the tech bros, he might be as problematic as Trump, who owes the Russians and the Saudis.

But check out the pictures above. The picture on the left makes him look like one of the flunkies that always hung around school bullies. Those bastards always had them. Remember? Scut Farkas of A Christmas Story had two of them, and Biff Tannen of Back to the Future had three. Two or three was standard for them.

Vance is a flunky to Trump the bully. As are Stephen Miller, Steve Bannon, Pete Hegseth, etc.

But those flunkies never managed to succeed the bully. Even in Heathers, it didn't quite work. Then again, that film's real villain was also named J.D.

Vance is a complete phony, always re-inventing himself to please whoever can help him. That's one thing he has in common with Trump: Trump takes the last thing somebody told him that he liked -- whether it's "Wind power causes cancer," or "The immigrants are eating the dogs, they're eating the cats," or something else that's too fucking stupid to take seriously -- and then he tells the media, often preceding it with, "You know, a lot of people are saying... " when he only heard it from one person.

The current rumor is that the Republicans will wait to allow Trump to be removed through impeachment sometime after the midpoint of his term, January 20, 2027, so that the conditions of the 22nd Amendment will allow Vance -- who, at age 42, would be the youngest President ever, breaking Theodore Roosevelt's record, as long as he takes office before June 20, 2027 -- to run for a full 1st term in 2028 and a full 2nd term in 2032.

The problem with that is, the Democrats are almost certainly going to take the House of Representatives in this November's election. They have a much less likely chance of taking the Senate. But impeachment not long after the change of power on January 3, 2027 seems likely. Would they get enough Republican Senators to make 67, a 2/3rds majority, to remove him at that point? Or would they rely on the Cabinet to invoke Article 4 of the 25th Amendment, and remove him for unfitness, when Trump seems to have built a Cabinet based on loyalty, to guard against that very possibility?

We will see.

February 27, 1951: The 22nd Amendment Is Ratified

February 27, 1951, 75 years ago: The 22nd Amendment to the Constitution of the United States is ratified, when the Minnesota legislature approves it, becoming the 36th State to do so. That made it 36 out of 48, the three-quarters of the States necessary. The Amendment limits the President of the United States to two terms.

Congress passed the Amendment on March 21, 1947. It was a Republican-controlled Congress, the first since the 1929-30 session. They passed it as a slap at the memory of the late President Franklin D. Roosevelt, the Democrat who had won 4 elections, all by landslide wins over Republican candidates: Incumbent President Herbert Hoover in 1932, Governor Alfred M. Landon of Kansas in 1936, corporate lawyer with no political experience Wendell Willkie in 1940, and Governor Thomas E. Dewey of New York in 1944.

Except... the Republicans put in a grandfather clause, allowing the President at the time the Amendment was ratified to run for, and serve out, a 3rd term, if he so chose. It was a cynical move: They figured the Amendment wouldn't be ratified by the necessary 36 States until after January 20, 1949, the next Inauguration Day. And they were sure that the new President, Harry Truman, who took office after FDR's death on April 12, 1945, would be so unpopular that he would lose the 1948 election, and the Republican President who succeeded him would keep getting re-elected, and eventually surpass FDR's record of 12 years, 1 month and 8 days in office.

And when they held their 1948 Convention, they nominated Dewey again. He was only 46 years old. At the conclusion of 3 terms, in 1960, he would have been only 58, 4 years younger than FDR. (As it turned out, he lived until 1971, which, in the Republicans' dream scenario, would have been more than halfway through his 6th term.)

The Republicans had the timing right: The Amendment didn't pass until what would have been early in the 3rd year of Dewey's 1st term. But Truman won the 1948 election. So, had he so chosen, he could have run again in 1952, for what would have amounted to a 3rd term.

He decided not to. He was tired of the job, and his wife was tired of being First Lady. He said that if he had run again, "Bess would have impeached me."

Finally, in 1952, the Republicans got their next President. Ironically, the 1st 2 Presidents limited by the Amendment, and 3 of the 1st 4, were Republicans.

This begs the question: Which 2-term Presidents could have won a 3rd term, had they been eligible for it, and had they wanted it?

* Dwight D. Eisenhower, elected in 1952 and 1956. In 1960, "Ike" was 70 years old, the oldest President ever to that point. And he wanted to retire. But he was still popular. And, given that his considerably less popular Vice President, Richard Nixon, came close to beating Senator John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts, it's likely that Ike would have beaten him. Unless, of course, JFK figured that Ike probably couldn't be beaten in 1960, and had waited until 1964.

As we know, JFK was assassinated before he could start running for a 2nd term, let alone a 3rd. And his successor, Lyndon B. Johnson, had started to run for a 2nd full term in 1968, but backed out. The 22nd Amendment allowed a President who had served less than 2 years of his predecessor's term to still serve 2 full terms.

Richard Nixon, one step ahead of impeachment, resigned nearly halfway through his 2nd term. Gerald Ford lost his bid for a term of his own in 1976. He would not have been eligible to run again in 1980. Jimmy Carter was, but lost. But since he only served one term, he could have run for another. Given that he is still alive at this writing, he could, theoretically, run again in 2024, when he would be 100 years old, and, if successful, be allowed to serve.

* Ronald Reagan, elected in 1980 and 1984. In 1988, he was 77, breaking Ike's record for oldest President. He might have wanted to serve a 3rd term, had he been allowed to. But, given that his mental capacity was already clearly in decline (for those willing to admit it), he probably would have been talked out of it. If he had run again in 1988, he was popular enough to win again. But by 1992, he, rather than his Vice President and successor, George H.W. Bush, would have been blamed for the recession, and his historical reputation would have been shattered.

* Bill Clinton, elected in 1992 and 1996. In 2000, he was 56, and still popular. Given that his Vice President, Al Gore, a man with a serious charisma deficit, actually beat Governor George W. Bush of Texas in the popular vote, Clinton would have destroyed Bush. Given Clinton's heart trouble in 2004, he might not have run for a 4th term. But, had that been taken care of, we could, theoretically, now be in Bill Clinton's 9th term as President. Ninth.

* George W. Bush, elected in 2000 and 2004. In 2008, he was 62, and very unpopular, due to a very rough recession and the Iraq War. He wouldn't have had a chance.

* Barack Obama, elected in 2008 and 2012. In 2016, he was 55, and still popular. And he had as much skill as Hillary Clinton, and none of her baggage. And we know from the birth certificate story of 2011 that he wouldn't have been timid about going after Donald Trump. He would have won.

When Obama left office, I joked: "The Republicans were determined to do anything to stop President Obama. Anything. So, after failing at everything else, they went back in time to 1947, and got a Constitutional Amendment passed, limiting the President to 2 terms. It worked."

It never occurred to Donald Trump's supporters that, if, as they so stupidly believed, he really did win again in 2020, then he wasn't eligible to be elected again in 2024.