Showing posts with label gambling. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gambling. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 1, 2024

Pete Rose, 1941-2024

He was a stupid man who thought he was smart, a weak man who thought he was strong, and an ill-fitting symbol of what he did who thought he was a well-fitting symbol. He was the son of a rotten guy, who became a rotten guy, and he passed that down to his own son as well. He was an old man who liked his women very young, and treated women of all ages poorly. He was fat and had bad hair. He cheated on his taxes. And he and gambling most certainly did not go together. And yet, for all the things he did wrong, he still had his defenders, people who thought he did nothing wrong; and that, even if what he did was wrong, he should still be elected.

His name was Pete Rose. And, unlike Donald Trump, for whom those things were also true, he was actually good at his chosen profession. But not as good as his fans would have you believe.

Peter Edward Rose was born on April 14, 1941 in Cincinnati, Ohio. He has sometimes been listed as "Peter Edward Rose Jr.," but this incorrect: While his father was nicknamed "Pete," his legal name was Harry Francis Rose. Peter Edward starred in baseball and football at Western Hills High School in Cincinnati, and it's been suggested that he played baseball as if he didn't realize it wasn't football.

Other baseball players to come out of Western Hills include Don Zimmer, Art Mahaffey, Eddie Birnkman, Jim Frey, Russ Nixon, Herm Wehmeier, Karl "Tuffy" Rhodes. Its football players include Jack "Hacksaw" Reynolds, Jim Boyle, Mike Middleton and Rodney Heath. And singers Rosemary Clooney and Andy Williams were also graduates.

He was signed by his hometown Cincinnati Reds. After a Spring Training game against the New York Yankees, where his hard play was noticed by Whitey Ford, who gave him the nickname "Charlie Hustle," he made his major league debut on April 8, 1963. Playing 2nd base, batting 2nd, and wearing the Number 14 he would wear for the entirety of his career, batting against Earl Francis, his 1st plate appearance was a walk in the 1st inning, scoring on a Frank Robinson home run. He grounded out to 2nd base in the 2nd inning, reached on an error against Tommie Sisk in the 5th, struck out against Joe Gibbon in the 7th, going 0-for-3. Nevertheless, the Reds beat the Pittsburgh Pirates, 5-2 at Crosley Field in Cincinnati.

At the end of the season, Rose dove for a grounder hit by Stan Musial, but couldn't stop it. It was the 3,630th and last hit of Musial's career, extending his place as the National League's all-time hits leader. Rose was named NL Rookie of the Year. The next season, 1964, he would be in his 1st Pennant race, though the Reds fell 1 game short.

In 1965, he was named to his 1st All-Star Game. He was named to 17 of them, including at 5 different positions. Also in 1965, he collected at least 200 hits for the 1st of 10 times. In 1968 and 1969, he won the NL batting title. In 1969 and 1970, he was awarded a Gold Glove in left field.

*

In 1970, the Reds moved from Crosley Field to Riverfront Stadium, and hosted the All-Star Game there. The NL won, 5-4, in 10 innings, as Rose scored on a single by Jim Hickman of the Chicago Cubs, crashing into the American League's catcher, Ray Fosse of the Cleveland Indians. The crash not only scored the winning run, it separated Fosse's shoulder. In a meaningless exhibition.

To the end, Rose remained unrepentant. Actually, contrary to legend, this injury didn't curtail Fosse's career: He had a few more good years, playing on the Oakland Athletics' 1972 and 1973 World Champions, before another injury reduced his ability. So it didn't ruin Fosse.

It did, however, mark Rose as a hustler, a man who would do anything to win. That was when a majority of baseball fans liked him. Within 20 years, his reputation would be in tatters, and it would be seen as an aspect of a very mean son of a bitch who cared more about fame than about the game.

*

The Reds won the Pennant in 1970, barreling through the NL Western Division, leading it wire-to-wire, and becoming known as "The Big Red Machine." In 1972, they won it again. But they lost the World Series both times, to the Baltimore Orioles and the Oakland Athletics, respectively. Losing to the A's in '72, when Oakland's best player, Reggie Jackson, was unavailable due to injury, should have settled the "Team of the Decade" debate for all time, but it hasn't.

In 1973, Rose won another batting title, leading the Reds back into the Playoffs, and winning his only NL Most Valuable Player award. In Game 3 of the NL Championship Series, the Reds lost to the New York Mets, 9-2 at Shea Stadium in New York. The game is remembered for 5-foot-11, 200-pound Pete Rose breaking up a double play by crashing into 5-foot-11, 140-pound Bud Harrelson, and then starting a fight with the much thinner man.

With the fight broken up, Rose returned to his position in left field, where Met fans (understandably angry, but they were hardly justified in their actions) started throwing things at him. Reds manager Sparky Anderson took his team off the field, fearing for their safety.

The next day, with a banner hanging from Shea's upper deck reading, "A ROSE BY ANY OTHER NAME STILL STINKS" -- I guess they weren't willing to say "Sucks" in public in 1973 -- Rose made his point by winning the game and tying up the series with an extra-inning home run. But the Mets won Game 5 and the Pennant, before losing the World Series to the Oakland Athletics.

Finally, in 1975, the Reds won the World Series, defeating the Boston Red Sox in 7 games. Game 6 is considered one of the greatest in baseball history. When Rose came to bat in the top of the 11th inning, he said something to the catcher, Carlton Fisk. It's been reported as both, "Some kind of a game, isn't it?" and, "Can you believe this game?" Fisk led off the bottom of the 12th with a home run, but the Reds won Game 7.

Sports Illustrated magazine named Rose their Sportsman of the Year for 1975. To this day, he has appeared on its cover more than any other baseball figure, although those covers, and the stories they represented inside, were not always flattering.

The Reds won another Division title in 1976, and swept their way through the NLCS against the Philadelphia Phillies and the World Series against the Yankees. They remain the only team in the Divisional Play Era (1969-present0 to go through the postseason undefeated, although there have been more rounds added since.

Rose got his 3,000th career hit off Steve Rogers of the Montreal Expos at Riverfront Stadium on May 5, 1978. That season, he tied Willie Keeler's NL record with a 44-game hitting streak, but got no closer to the record of 56, set by Joe DiMaggio in 1941.

Rose's contract ran out after the 1978 season, and the unthinkable happened: He left Cincinnati, signing with the Phillies. He helped them win the World Series for the 1st time in franchise history, in 1980. In 1983, they won another Pennant, as Rose was reunited with former Cincinnati teammates Joe Morgan and Tony Pérez. But they lost the World Series to the Orioles.

When baseball resumed after the Strike of '81, Rose got his 3,631st hit, to pass Musial. Ahead of him now were only Hank Aaron with 3,771 and Ty Cobb with 4,191. Actually, it was during the Strike that a researcher discovered that one of Cobb's 1910 games was mistakenly counted twice, including 2 hits he'd gotten. So that lowered his career hit total to 4,189, and his record lifetime batting average from .367 to .366. However, Rose would still be celebrated for breaking the record when he got to 4,192, not 4,190.

His contract with the Phillies ran out after the 1983 World Series. He was signed by the Montreal Expos, where he got his 4,000th career hit -- in a rarity for the switch-hitter, while batting righthanded. On August 16, 1984, the Reds fired manager Vern Rapp, and sent utility player Tom Lawless to the Expos for the 43-year-old Rose, naming him manager. The fact that the other player's name was Lawless didn't seem to mean much at the time.

The fact that Rose was named player-manager was, as he remains the last one in Major League Baseball history. It was whispered that he was only still playing so he could get Cobb's record, and inserting himself into games for that selfish reason. And yet, he batted .286 in 1984, and .264 in 1985, at 44. On September 11, 1985, he officially broke Cobb's record, with a single to left (opposite field) off Eric Show of the San Diego Padres, for career hit Number 4,192.

He played his last game on August 17, 1986, although he never made an official retirement announcement. He finished with 4,256 hits. He and Cobb are the only ones with at least 4,000. He still holds the major league career records for games played (3,562), plate appearances (15,890), at-bats (14,053), and hits... and also outs (9,797).

*

But Rose was a bad manager. He got the Reds to 4 straight 2nd place finishes from 1985 to 1988, but couldn't get them into the Playoffs -- no Wild Cards at the time. In 1988, following a disputed call by umpire Dave Pallone, Rose shoved him. Commissioner A. Bartlett "Bart" Giamatti suspended Rose for 30 days, which remains the longest suspension ever given to a manager for an on-field incident.

And then it was discovered that Rose had bet on baseball, including on games involving the Reds. He would later admit to betting on them to win. It's important to note that any game in which he did not bet on them to win was tantamount to admitting that he thought they would lose, which was also a sign to gamblers. Which was as bad as losing a game on purpose to win money gambling.

For so many people in my generation, too young to remember Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Roberto Clemente and Sandy Koufax as active players, Rose was a symbol of baseball in our generation. He represented "the right way to play." "Charlie Hustle." He was a winner. He led what some of us called the greatest team we'd ever seen, the 1970s Big Red Machine. Hell, he'd even helped the Phillies win a World Series. The Phillies! Who does that? Pete Rose did that. (With a lot of help. The real reason they won is that manager Dallas Green told a bunch of prima donnas, including Rose, to get their act in gear.)

Rose may not have played for our team, but he was one of our favorite players not on our team. He was one of our guys. We didn't want to believe the allegations against him. Thomas Boswell, the great baseball writer for The Washington Post, spoke for so many us when he said, when his interview with Ken Burns for his Baseball miniseries got to the subject of Rose, "Fooled me completely."

The case against Rose, put together by former U.S. Department of Justice official John Dowd, was air-tight: Rose had violated "Rule 21 Misconduct, (d) Betting on Ball Games, Any player, umpire, or club, or league official, or employee, who shall bet any sum whatsoever upon any baseball game in connection with which the bettor has a duty to perform shall be declared permanently ineligible."

(At the beginning of this post, I compared Rose and Trump. There is a connection between them: From June 2017 to March 2018, Dowd was a personal lawyer to Trump, resigning because Trump refused to 
accept his advice in regards to the probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election.)

"Permanently." Not a "lifetime" ban: As with Shoeless Joe Jackson and the other 7 "Black Sox" of 1919, the ineligibility was not to end with death. Only with reinstatement, for which Rose could have reapplied, and eventually did.

On August 24, 1989, Giamatti banned Rose from any active role in professional baseball, permanently. Just 7 days later, Giamatti died of a heart attack. That was the worst thing that could have happened to either man: Most likely, Rose's chance to make a deal for reinstatement died with Giamatti. As Rose himself pointed out, Giamatti's successor, Francis T. "Fay" Vincent, was Giamatti's best friend; and when the team owners fired Vincent in 1992, the new Commissioner was Allan H. "Bud" Selig, one of their own (owner of the Milwaukee Brewers), and the owners have never given the players a break unless forced to by a court of law.

Indeed, Vincent was out before he could act on Rose's appeal for reinstatement. He appealed again in 1998, but Selig never acted on it. He appealed again in 2015, when Selig retired as Commissioner, and was replaced by Rob Manfred. Manfred did issue a decision: Absolutely not.

In 1991, the year before Rose would have become eligible for election had he done nothing wrong, the Baseball Hall of Fame passed a rule stating that no person on MLB's list of permanently ineligible people would be placed on a Hall of Fame ballot. In other words, Rose was banned from the Hall, too.

Rose's defenders say that what he did wrong was as a manager, not a player, and it shouldn't affect his eligibility as a player. The problem is, it doesn't matter when he committed the acts that got him banned: He still committed them, and he's still ineligible.

And Rule 21(d) is in place for a reason: Betting on games, or losing them on purpose, is fraud, and harms the integrity of the sport. It was one of the reasons the National League was founded as the 1st professional league in 1876, to better officiate against gambling. The fact that the case involving Rose is the only one since 1919-21 that has resulted in a guilty verdict, shows just how seriously MLB takes gambling: Most people, given the opportunity, don't do it, because they know the consequences.

It's important to note that, even if Rose were reinstated from Major League Baseball's "permanently ineligible" list, it wouldn't guarantee his election to the Hall. Nor would the Hall deciding to change the rule and make Rose eligible anyway: While there would be nothing that MLB could do about it, there would still be voters refusing to accept him. The recent revelation about a teenage girlfriend in the 1970s doesn't help Rose's chances.

Rose did not go to prison for fraud. Nor for gambling. Nor for inappropriate conduct with a minor. He did, however, go to prison for income tax evasion, pleading guilty to 2 charges of filing false income tax returns, not showing income he received from selling autographs and memorabilia, and from winnings on horse races. On July 19, 1990, he was sentenced to 5 months in federal prison -- with some irony, in Marion, Illinois, hometown of Ray Fosse. He was released on January 7, 1991, having paid what he owed.

In 1999, MLB worked with MasterCard to provide fan balloting for the Major League Baseball All-Century Team. Fans elected Rose, leading to a delicate issue: Should the man banned from baseball be allowed to participate in the ceremony honoring those players, set for before Game 2 of the World Series? Selig decided he should, and Rose got a standing ovation.

The game and the ceremony were broadcast on NBC, and after the ceremony, reporter Jim Gray asked Rose if he was now ready to admit that he bet on baseball. He said he wasn't, and lied, saying he hadn't done that. He wouldn't admit it until 2004, when he published a book, My Prison Without Bars. The fact that he lied about it for 15 years is another thing held against him by those who say he shouldn't be elected to the Hall of Fame.

His supporters have said that what he did wasn't as bad as what was done by users of drugs, either the illegal kind or the prescription kind. They are wrong: It's worse. They say it's wrong that baseball's all-time hit leader isn't in the Hall, just as Barry Bonds' defenders say it's wrong for the all-time home run leader to not be in. Bonds has not been formally banned: Unlike Rose, the voters have had the chance to punish him by refusing to elect him, and, thus far, they have.

It's worth noting that opinion isn't just split among fans. For his achievements, Rose had been considered a contender, following the death of Mays earlier this year, for the title of baseball's greatest living player. Another contender for that title, his former Phillies teammate Mike Schmidt, believes he should be allowed into the Hall. But another contender for that title, his former Reds teammate Johnny Bench, says he still loves Rose as a friend, but doesn't want him in the Hall.

And while many have picked up Rose's nickname for himself, the Hit King, a few have called him "the greatest hitter of all time." In spite of all his hits, his lifetime batting average is .303. His OPS+ is 118, meaning he was 18 percent better at producing runs than the average player in his time. His 4,256 hits include 746 doubles, 2nd all-time behind Tris Speaker's 792; 135 triples, and 160 home runs, an average of 7 per season.

Because he usually batted leadoff, his 1,314 RBIs works out to about 60 per season. He topped out at a .348 batting average, 16 homers and 82 RBIs, in each case in 1969. (He also hit 16 homers in 1966.) And for all his hustle on the basepaths, including his trademark head-first slides, he only stole 198 bases in his long career, getting caught stealing 146 times.

The Reds renamed Riverside Drive outside Riverfront Stadium, and now Great American Ballpark, Pete Rose Way. They retired his Number 14. Previously, they'd given it to only 1 player: Pete Rose Jr., a September callup with the Reds in 1997. Career major league hits: 2.

The Phillies, having already retired his Number 14 for a previous player, Hall of Fame pitcher Jim Bunning, were prepared to elect him to their team Hall of Fame in 2017, when the story of his affair with the teenager came out. They canceled the ceremony.

Also not helping matters: Rose had been living in Las Vegas, the gambling capital of the world. He died yesterday, at his home there, at the age of 83. The night before, he had attended a partial reunion of the Big Red Machine in a suburb of Nashville.

When the news came over the wire last night, I spent about an hour reminding some very stupid people of the difference between "lifetime" and "permanent." The thought of many has been that MLB would never allow his reinstatement while he was still alive. What makes them think he'll be reinstated now that he's dead? What he did still happened. 

Friday, October 6, 2023

October 6, 1993: Michael Jordan Retires (For the 1st Time)

October 6, 1993, 30 years ago: Michael Jordan retires from professional basketball. He is only 30 years old, does not claim an injury, and is coming off 3 straight NBA Championships with the Chicago Bulls.

The cover of the next issue of Sports Illustrated has a simple headline, with a simple question.
His answer: He had lost his desire to play basketball. He later added that the death of his father, James Jordan, a murder victim in Lumberton, North Carolina 3 months earlier, helped to convince him.

Later still, he said that another factor was not really having an off-season the year before, 1992, because he was leading the U.S. "Dream Team" at the Olympics in Barcelona, Spain. Apparently, he was both physically and emotionally exhausted.

There is another explanation, perhaps a more sinister one. During the Bulls' 1993 Playoff series with the New York Knicks, a story got out that he had made the 128-mile trip down to Atlantic City, New Jersey, and did a considerable amount of gambling there. And stories had gotten out that he had lost hundreds of thousands of dollars betting on golf games he was playing.

Now, there has never been any evidence, at least not publicly revealed, that Jordan bet on an NBA game. This is not a Pete Rose situation, as far as we know. But it didn't matter: If a player can be that much in debt to a gambler, he could be pressured to throw a game to pay off the debt.

But then-NBA Commissioner David Stern didn't want to lose the NBA's biggest drawing card and moneymaker. Not for good, anyway. So some people believe that Jordan cut a deal with Stern: Step away from the game for a while, and the investigation would be dropped. Essentially, it was an indefinite suspension.

It lasted for a year and a half. Jordan returned on March 18, 1995, and Stern allowed it. He played through the 1998 season, winning 3 more titles, then retired again. He came back one more time, for 2001-02 and 2002-03, with the Washington Wizards, and finally retired for good. There was never another investigation into his gambling.

But that question on that cover, "Why?", still lingers. Jordan himself has never told the story. Nor did Stern, before his death in 2020.

Sunday, February 7, 2016

Useless Last-Minute Super Bowl Betting Tips -- 2016 Edition

In the first 49 Super Bowls...

The NFC Champion has won 26 times, the AFC Champion 23. Not a huge difference there.

But if you count teams that started in the old, pre-1970 merger NFL, including the Steelers and Colts, then it becomes 33-15 NFC. You really shouldn't count the Ravens, even though they began as the Browns (who began in the AAFC before becoming an NFL team anyway); but if you do, then it's 35-13 NFC. The Denver Broncos started out in the AFL, while the Carolina Panthers are a 1995 NFL expansion team. Based on this... Advantage: Carolina.

The team wearing the white jerseys has won 31, including the last 4, and 9 of the last 10. The Panthers will be wearing white. Advantage: Carolina.

UPDATE: I was wrong: The Broncos wore white, and the Panthers blue.

Teams whose primary (dark) uniform color is blue have won the most Super Bowls, 17 -- but have also lost the most, 18. Red has the best winning percentage, at 10-6; Black is 11-8, Green is 7-7, Purple is 4-4, and Orange is 0-5. The Panthers' primary color is a very dark blue. Advantage: Carolina.

The older of the two teams has won 32 times -- and if you accept the old Browns/Ravens as an "old" team, it becomes 33 times. Advantage: Denver.

The Jets are the only team to reach the Super Bowl with a mascot that is an inanimate object. (No, I'm not talking about Fireman Ed.) The only other such team in the league could be the Browns, depending on what you think a "Brown" is. Advantage: Neither.

Teams with human mascots are 37-22 in Super Bowls. Teams with animal mascots are only 11-27. Miles the Bronco and Sir Purr the Panther are both animals. Advantage: Neither.

Teams with horse mascots, the Broncos and the Baltimore/Indianapolis Colts, are 4-7. Teams with cat mascots are 0-3: The Panthers have lost their only appearance before tonight, the Cincinnati Bengals are 0-2, the Jacksonville Jaguars have never made it, and the Detroit Lions haven't made an NFL Championship Game, under any name, since 1957. Since horse have won, and cats haven't... Advantage: Denver.

Teams playing their home games on natural grass are 24-23; on artificial turf, 24-26. Both teams play on real grass. The game is being played at Levi's Stadium, which also uses real grass. Turf teams having to switch to grass for the Super Bowl are 13-10, but since that doesn't apply to either team, no advantage. Grass teams having to switch to turf for the Super Bowl are 9-8, while teams playing on turf and staying on turf are 11-12. Not a whole lot of help there.

The team with the more experienced quarterback doesn't help much: It's almost an even split, 25-24. Peyton Manning is considerably more experienced than Cam Newton, but is that really an advantage for Denver? After all, "more experienced" could mean "old," while "less experienced" could mean "just entering his prime."

Having the more experienced head coach doesn't help much: Teams with the less experienced coach are 26-23. The Broncos' Gary Kubiak has been a coach since 1992, an NFL coach since 1994, and an NFL head coach since 2006. The Panthers' Ron River has been a coach, and an NFL coach, since 1997, and a head coach since 2011. So while this particular advantage leans toward Denver, it may be utterly meaningless. Rivera does, however, have a Super Bowl ring, with the 1985 Chicago Bears.

The team that is closer in distance to the site of the Super Bowl is 27-22. And Denver, Colorado is a lot closer to Santa Clara, California than Charlotte, North Carolina is. But in the era of every team flying their own private planes, and with nearly a week to acclimate to the location of the game, is that really an issue?


Finally, teams from States that were Red States -- won by the Republican nominee for President in the most recent election -- are 25-21 in Super Bowls. Teams from Blue States -- won by the Democratic nominee in the last election -- are 24-28. North Carolina has gone Republican in every election but 1 since 1980, while Colorado has gone Democratic in the last 2 elections.

Does this mean... Advantage, Denver? Not necessarily: The last 5 Super Bowl winners have been from Blue States -- but so have the last 6 Super Bowl losers. The last Red State team to win was the New Orleans Saints, 6 years ago. The last team from a conservative city to win was the Indianapolis Colts, 9 years ago. Now that suggests... Advantage, Denver.

*

At the moment, the point spread is Panthers by 5.

The 1968-69 Jets, the 1969-70 Chiefs, the 1980-81 and 1983-84 Raiders, the 1982-83 and 1987-88 Redskins; the 1990-91, 2007-08 and 2011-12 Giants; the 1997-98 Broncos, the 2001-02 Patriots, the 2002-03 Bucs, the 2009-10 Saints, the 2012-13 Ravens and the 2013-14 Seahawks -- 15 of the 49 winners -- won the Super Bowl despite being the underdog.

The 1975-76 Cowboys, the 1988-89 Bengals, the 1995-96 Steelers, the 2003-04 Panthers, the 2004-05 Eagles and the 2008-09 Cardinals -- 6 teams -- beat the spread, but did not win the game. The 1996-97 Packers were 14-point favorites to beat the Patriots, and beat them by exactly that, 14 points. The 1999-2000 Rams were 7-point favorites to beat the Titans, and did so. On those 2 occasions, the Super Bowl point spread was right on.

My recommendations? I have two:

1. Don't bet on the game. You need the money more than your friends do, and especially more than any bookmaker does.

2. Enjoy yourself, but don't eat too much.

You could go for the team wearing the less ugly uniforms. Since the Broncos will be wearing their bright orange jerseys with purple trim, and the Panthers their road whites, that would mean the Panthers.

There is sentiment behind Peyton Manning. But he pals around with employee-hating Papa John Schnatter, so to hell with him: Let's go, Panthers!


If you must bet, consider what I've said here, take it with a pinch of salt, and use your head.

Let's hope, first and foremost, for a good game, with no major injuries, and no moments like Peyton's over-the-shoulder snap on last year's first play from scrimmage. No "Leon Lett Play." Nothing that would make an announcer say, as Verne Lundquist said after a wide-open Jackie Smith of the Cowboys dropped a sure touchdown pass in Super Bowl XIII, which ended up making the difference, "Aw, bless his heart, he's got to be the sickest man in America!

Nobody deserves to have that happen to him.


Well, maybe the Patriots do. But they're not in it this time, are they? They couldn't cheat their way in again.


Broncos or Panthers? We shall see.

Sunday, February 1, 2015

Useless Last-Minute Super Bowl Betting Tips

In the first 48 Super Bowls...

The NFC Champion has won 26, the AFC Champion 22. Not a huge difference there. But if you count teams that started in the old, pre-1970 merger NFL, including the Steelers and Colts, then it becomes 33-14 NFC. You really shouldn't count the Ravens, even though they began as the Browns (who began in the AAFC before becoming an NFL team anyway); but if you do, then it's 35-12 NFC. The Seattle Seahawks actually started as an NFC team in 1976, but were switchd to the AFC the next season, but have been an NFC team against since the 2002 realignment of the conferences from 3 divisions to 4. The New England Patriots started out as the Boston Patriots of the AFL. Based on this... Advantage: Seattle.

The team wearing the white jerseys has won 30, including the last 3, and 8 of the last 9. The Patriots will be wearing white. Advantage: New England.

Teams whose primary (dark) uniform color is blue have won the most Super Bowls, 16 -- but have also lost the most, 18. Red has the best winning percentage, at 10-6; Black is 11-8, Green is 7-7, Purple is 4-4, and Orange is 0-4. Keep in mind that the Patriots wore red in their first Super Bowl, and have had blue as their primary color since. But the Seahawks also wear blue. Advantage: Neither.

The older of the two teams has won 31 times -- and if you accept the old Browns/Ravens as an "old" team, it becomes 33 times. Advantage: New England.


The Jets are the only team to reach the Super Bowl with a mascot that is an inanimate object. (No, I'm not talking about Fireman Ed.) The only other such team in the league could be the Browns, depending on what you think a "Brown" is. Advantage: Neither.

Teams with human mascots are 36-22 in Super Bowls. Teams with animal mascots are only 11-26. Pat Patriot is human, while Blitz the Seahawk is animal. Advantage: New England.

Teams with bird mascots, such as the Seahawks, are only 3-5. Teams with non-human mammal mascots are 8-20. Advantage: New England.


Teams playing their home games on natural grass are 24-23; on artificial turf, 23-25. Both teams play on the plastic stuff. The game is being played at the University of Phoenix Stadium, which uses the real stuff, a form of Bermuda grass. Turf teams having to switch to grass for the Super Bowl are 13-10, but since that applies to both teams, no advantage. Grass teams having to switch to turf for the Super Bowl are 9-8, while teams playing on turf and staying on turf are 11-12. Not a whole lot of help there.


Having the more experienced head coach doesn't help much: Teams with the less experienced coach are 26-22. The Seahawks' Pete Carroll has been a coach since 1973, an NFL coach since 1984, and an NFL head coach as far back as 1994. The Patriots' Bill Belichick has been a coach, and an NFL coach, since 1975, and an NFL head coach since 1991. So while this particular advantage leans toward Seattle, it may be utterly meaningless.

The team that is closer in distance to the site of the Super Bowl is 27-21. And Seattle, Washington is a lot closer to Glendale, Arizona than Foxboro, Massachusetts is. But in the era of every team flying their own private planes, and with nearly a week to acclimate to the location of the game, is that really an issue?


Finally, teams from States that were Red States -- won by the Republican nominee for President in the most recent election -- are 25-21 in Super Bowls. Teams from Blue States -- won by the Democratic nominee in the last election -- are 23-27. But this doesn't matter on this occasion, as Massachusetts and Washington are both Blue States. Washington has gone Democratic in every election since 1988. So has Massachusetts; in fact, it has gone Democratic in every election but one since 1960.

The last 4 Super Bowl winners have been from Blue States -- but so have the last 5 Super Bowl losers. The last Red State team to win was the Saints, 5 years ago. The last team from a conservative city to win was the Colts, 8 years ago.


*

At the moment, the point spread is "Pick 'em" -- no spread at all. 

The 1968-69 Jets, the 1969-70 Chiefs, the 1980-81 and 1983-84 Raiders, the 1982-83 and 1987-88 Redskins; the 1990-91, 2007-08 and 2011-12 Giants; the 1997-98 Broncos, the 2001-02 Patriots, the 2002-03 Bucs, the 2009-10 Saints, the 2012-13 Ravens and last year's Seahawks -- 15 of the 48 winners -- won the Super Bowl despite being the underdog. While the 1975-76 Cowboys, the 1988-89 Bengals, the 1995-96 Steelers, the 2003-04 Panthers, the 2004-05 Eagles and the 2008-09 Cardinals -- 6 teams -- beat the spread, but did not win the game. The 1996-97 Packers were 14-point favorites to beat the Patriots, and beat them by exactly that, 14 points. And the 1999-2000 Rams were 7-point favorites to beat the Titans, and did so. On those 2 occasions, the Super Bowl point spread was right on.

My recommendations? I have two:

1. Don't bet on the game. You need the money more than your friends do, and especially more than any bookmaker does.

2. Enjoy yourself, but don't eat too much.

You could go for the team wearing the less ugly uniforms. Since the Seahawks will be wearing their dark blues with that hideous lime-green trim, and the Patriots their road whites, that would mean the Pats.

But, as a New York Tri-State Area sports fan, I cannot bring myself to root for a New England team. Unless they're playing a Dallas or Los Angeles team. (And, even then, I would take the Lakers over the Celtics. And, with my Rutgers bias in mind, despite them being in different leagues the last few years, if Boston College were to play USC or UCLA, I'd take the L.A. team over BC.)


A definite case can be made for using your head to pick the Patriots. But if you're a Giant fan, a Jet fan, or a New Yorker or New Jerseyan who doesn't particularly like either one, but you still support any local team in any sport, your heart says to support whoever's playing New England.


Go, Hawks, Go!


*


One final stat: Before "Spygate" was revealed, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady reached 3 Super Bowls, winning all of them in very close games, decided by a field goal's worth of points or less. After it was revealed, in 8 seasons, they have reached 3 Super Bowls, but have, thus far, won none.

Also, look at the teams they've played. The 2001-02 Rams, the 2003-04 Panthers and the 2004-05 Eagles were teams whose primary focus was offense. But the 2007-08 and 2011-12 Giants? Their hallmark was defense, and they smacked Brady around and shut down his receivers, and then scored just enough points to win. The current Seahawks? They have a high-powered offense, but it is their defense that is the true difference-maker.


This is why I think the Seahawks will win: Brady will see the Seahawks as another Giants. So the question is, Can Belichick find a way to cheat his way to victory again? My answer: Even if he does, it may not be enough to beat a team that hung 43 points on a good Broncos team a year ago.


Yeah, I picked the Broncos in last year's Super Bowl. I was very, very wrong. But I've picked 7 of the last 9 right, and 13 of the last 16. Before that, though, it was about a 50-50 chance of me getting it right.


If you must bet, consider what I've said here, take it with a pinch of salt, and use your head.


But if the oddsmakers are right, and this game really is, for all practical purposes, an even match, then no betting tips may help.


Let's hope, first and foremost, for a good game, with no major injuries, and no moments like Peyton Manning's over-the-shoulder snap on last year's first play from scrimmage. No "Leon Lett Play." Nothing that would make an announcer say, as Verne Lundquist said after a wide-open Jackie Smith of the Cowboys dropped a sure touchdown pass in Super Bowl XIII, which ended up making the difference, "Aw, bless his heart, he's got to be the sickest man in America!


Nobody deserves to have that happen to him.


Well, maybe the Patriots do. They deserve to be -- wait for it -- deflated. Whether it's Spygate, Deflategate, the Red Sox with their steroids and headhunting, the Celtics and Bruins with their environmental controls, the New England Revolution with their diving and dirty tackles, or UConn with their recruiting violations...


Same New England, always cheating!