3,000 and 2,000? Yes. 2,298? Maybe. 763? Fugeddaboutit.

I could discuss Lance Armstrong, or Manti Te'o, or basketball, or the NFL Playoffs, or the impending return of hockey, or even Jack Wilshere and his badass pulling of Arsenal's fat out of the FA Cup fire.

Instead, I'm going to talk about Alex Rodriguez.

Yesterday, both of us needed hip surgery. Only one of us got it.  ecause only one of us can afford it. Every industrialized nation on Earth has national health service, accepting the truth that "national security" includes providing for the health of its citizens. Every industrialized nation on Earth, except one.

"God Bless America." Because national health service is SOCIALISM!

Hey, you don't like it when I talk politics, get lost. You people never tell right-wingers like Curt Schilling or John Rocker, "Leave the politics out of it, only talk about sports." Only liberals like me, and Mike Lupica.

Anyway, A-Rod had his hip surgery, and they're estimating his return at about 6 months -- suggesting that he could be back by the All-Star Break.

At this point, A-Rod will be just short of his 38th birthday. He has 2,901 career hits, 1,950 runs batted in, and 647 home runs.

At the rate he's going, assuming he comes back no worse than he was in most of 2012, he'll reach the 3,000 hit plateau (cliche alert) around mid-September. This will make him the 5th player to have both 3,000 hits and 500 home runs. The others are Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Eddie Murray and Rafael Palmeiro.  (Aaron was the first, beating Mays to it by about 2 months.)

Of course, A-Rod and Raffy both used steroids, although A-Rod came clean when faced with the proof, while Raffy flat-out lied. Strangely, the federal government didn't go after him the way they went after Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. I guess being a Miami Cuban has its advantages when there's a Republican in the White House, especially when that Republican's brother is the Governor of Florida and a Miami resident.

Yes, I went there, again.

If A-Rod comes back roughly the same as when he was last healthy, 2,000 RBIs will probably also happen around September 15. The only players who have done that are Aaron, Babe Ruth, and, if you count the National Association (1871-75), Cap Anson. Bonds fell 4 short. Lou Gehrig fell 5 short, and would have gotten those 5, and the 7 homers he would have needed for 500, if he hadn't gotten sick. Stan Musial is also a near-miss for 2,000, having 1,951. Mays, Murray, Ty Cobb and Jimmie Foxx also got to 1,900, but not to 2,000.

The other players who have played for the Yankees and gotten to 1,500 are Dave Winfield at 1,833, Reggie Jackson at 1,702, Gary Sheffield at 1,676 *, Joe DiMaggio at 1,537 and Mickey Mantle at 1,509. (Derek Jeter, who has spent his entire career batting 1st or 2nd, has "only" 1,254.)

I'm not going to pretend that A-Rod's numbers are completely natural. Nor can I, nor can anyone else, say for sure how much of his numbers are real, and how much got the unnatural boost.

At 647 home runs, A-Rod is 13 short of Mays for 4th on the all-time list. He should reach 660 before the end of the season. He's 67 short of Ruth for 3rd, and it's within the realm of plausibility that he could reach 714 before the end of the 2014 season.

After that, though, as they say in medical dramas, "I'm not going to lie to you, it doesn't look good." He needs 108 to catch Aaron and 115 to catch Bonds for the tainted all-time record -- and if he does get an additional 116 to reach 763, it will be every bit as tainted as Bonds' 756 through 762, and maybe every home run Bonds hit from 600 onward.

That's the part that bothers me: Bonds could well have reached 600 homers without cheating. Ken Griffey Jr. did, and he, along with Bonds, was considered the greatest player of their (also my) generation. Griffey got to 630, more than any clean player except Aaron, Ruth and Mays, and nobody has come forward with serious evidence that he had help. (Unless you want to count the Kingdome's atmospheric conditions and its 316-foot right field fence as "help.")

If A-Rod hits 20 homers in the 2nd half of 2013 (at the conclusion of which he would be 38 years old), 25 in 2014 (39), 25 in 2015 (40), he'd be at 717 and past Mays and Ruth. He'd still need 46 to surpass Aaron and Bonds. Could he hit 23 in 2016 (41) and another 23 in 2017 (42 and at the end of his massive contract)?

Considering the way he's gotten hurt and otherwise declined since his ring season in 2009, I doubt it.

Therefore, I'm taking away the 700-homer and 763-homer projections from my countdowns. I'm leaving the 3,000-hit projection, and adding a 2,000-RBI projection, because that is a major milestone that doesn't get the credit it deserves. It is possible that he could reach Aaron's record of 2,297 RBIs, but he's 347 short. If he gets 50 RBIs in 2013, that will put him 297 short, and he'd have to average 75 RBIs over '14, '15 and '16 to break it.

Alex Rodriguez, a member of the 3,000 Hit Club? Almost certainly, he will make it.

2,000 RBIs? Probably.

2,298 RBIs? Maybe.

763 Homers? Fugeddaboutit.

*


Days until the Devils play again: 2, this Saturday night, at 7:00, against the New York Islanders at the Nassau Coliseum in Uniondale. At last.

Days until the Devils play another local rival: See the previous answer. The next game against the Philadelphia Flyers (a.k.a. The Philth) will be the home opener, at the Prudential Center in Newark, this coming Tuesday night. The next game against the New York Rangers (a.k.a. The Scum) will be on Tuesday night, February 5, at the Prudential. The Devils will also play the Rangers on Tuesday, March 19 (home); Sunday, April 21 (away); and Saturday, April 27 (away). They will play the Islanders on Thursday, January 31 (home); Sunday, February 3 (away); Saturday, February 16 (away); and Monday, April 1 (home). They will play the Flyers on : Friday, February 15 (home); Wednesday, March 15 (away); and Thursday, April 18 (away).

Days until Arsenal play another competitive match: 3, Sunday afternoon (morning out time), away to West London rivals (but not arch-rivals) Chelsea. Yesterday, Arsenal won their 3rd Round replay with Swansea City of Wales, on an 86th minute goal by Jack Wilshere: As the old song goes, "One-Nil to The Arsenal." They will face South Coast club Brighton & Hove Albion, currently in the 2nd division but a threat for promotion, in the 4th Round.

Days until the U.S. National Soccer Team plays again: 12, a week from this coming Tuesday night, at BBVA Compass Stadium, the new home of Houston Dynamo, against Canada. This exhibition game, or "friendly" as it's known in soccer, as a tuneup for the last, "Hexagonal" round of CONCACAF World Cup Qualifiers, for the region that encompasses North America, Central America, and the Caribbean nations. That round begins on February 6, away to Honduras. If they finish 1st or 2nd in this group of 6 -- and they definitely should finish no worse than 2nd behind Mexico -- they qualify for the 2014 World Cup.

Days until the next North London Derby: 44, on Saturday, March 2, 2013, at White Hart Lane. A little over 6 weeks. That March 2 date presumes that it won't be moved for TV purposes (which could well happen), and that Arsenal are not paired up with Spurs in the FA Cup's 5th Round, which will take place before March 2.

Days until the Red Bulls play again: 45, on Sunday, March 3, away to the Portland Timbers in Oregon. The 2013 MLS schedule has been partly released, including the club's first game and its first home game.

Days until the Red Bulls' home opener: 58, on Saturday, March 16, against D.C. United (or, as Metro fans call them, "The D.C. Scum"). Under 2 months.

Days until the Red Bulls next play a "derby," against either the New England Revolution, the Philadelphia Union or D.C. United: See the previous answer.

Days until the Yankees play again: 74, on Monday, April 1, at 1:05 PM, at home at Yankee Stadium II, against the Boston Red Sox. Under 11 weeks. Beat The Scum!

Days until the next Yankees-Red Sox series begins: See the previous answer.

Days until Rutgers plays football again: 224, on Thursday night, August 29, away to Fresno State University in California. The 1st home game of the 2013 season will be on Saturday, September 7, vs. Norfolk State. The schedule is far from complete, with only the first 4 games set, all nonconference games. The question marks surrounding the Big East, including Rutgers' own bolting for the Big Ten, have forced this.

Days until East Brunswick High School plays football again: Uncertain, since the 2013 schedule has not been released. But if the usual pattern holds, it will be on the 2nd Friday in September... which, next year, just so happens to be a Friday the 13th. Oy vey. Anyway, if that's the way it works out, then it's 239 days. Under 8 months. And when it does happen, it will be the first game they play without Marcus Borden as head coach since Thanksgiving Day 1982 (a loss to Colonia High of Woodbridge), as he has left the program. (Did he jump, or was he pushed? I don't know.)

Days until Alex Rodriguez collects his 3,000th career hit: 241 (estimated around September 15).

Days until Alex Rodriguez collects his 2,000th career RBI: 246 (estimated around September 20).

Days until the next East Brunswick-Old Bridge Thanksgiving clash: 315. A little over 10 months.

Days until Super Bowl XLVIII at the Meadowlands: 381 (February 2, 2014). A little over a year. Of course, we have no idea who the opposing teams will be. The possibility exists that either the Giants or the Jets could be in it -- or both. To this day, no team has ever played a Super Bowl in its own stadium -- in spite of multiple hostings by Miami, New Orleans and various California teams. Only 2 have done so in their home metro area: The 1979-80 Los Angeles Rams, whose home field was then the L.A. Coliseum, and they lost to Pittsburgh at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena; and the 1984-85 San Francisco 49ers, whose home field, then as now, was Candlestick Park, and they beat Miami at Stanford Stadium in Palo Alto, which had a much larger capacity than Candlestick.

Days until the next Winter Olympics, in Sochi, Russia: 386 (February 7, 2014).

Days until the next World Cup, in Brazil: 511 (June 12, 2014). Under 17 months.

Days until the next Summer Olympics, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: 1,296 (August 5, 2016). Under 4 years.

How Long It's Been: We Had Hockey

This Saturday, the NHL season will start again. The New Jersey Devils will open away, to the New York Islanders.

Swell place to open the new season: The Nassau Coliseum. All the drawbacks of old-time hockey, and none of the perks.

Still, it'll be NHL games. We haven't had them since the Devils lost Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Finals.

That was on June 11, 2012. 218 days. How long has that been?

*

Well, for one thing, Mitt Romney was being viewed by Republicans as a great choice to be President. Now, even they realize what a joke he is. It's not just that he wrote off 47 percent of the American people -- resulting in him getting "only" 47 percent of the vote. It's isn't even just that he targeted Big Bird and bragged about getting "binders full of women" as suggestions for State government posts in Massachusetts while he was about to become their failed Governor.

It's that he didn't stand up and tell his party, "Listen, we have to stop this. We have to stop treating women, especially rape victims, like we don't care. We have to accept that some people fall through the cracks through no fault of their own. We do have to care about the very poor. They are Americans, too."

Jersey Shore has been canceled. Snooki has had a baby. Richard Castle and Kate Beckett have finally gotten together on Castle. And on NCIS, Leroy Jethro Gibbs brought a knife to a gunfight. And won. (Okay, it was only against a guy played by Richard Schiff, best remembered as the nebbishy Toby Ziegler on The West Wing. Still... )

LeBron James has won an NBA Championship, something previously thought impossible. He's also won an Olympic Gold Medal, and been named Sportsman of the Year by Sports Illustrated.

The San Francisco Giants have won another World Series. Pablo Sandoval became the 4th (and least likely) player to hit 3 home runs in a World Series game, joining Babe Ruth, Reggie Jackson and Albert Pujols.

The Yankees found out something they hadn't found out since 1995: What it was like to go through a postseason series (mostly) without Derek Jeter. They also found out something they hadn't found out since 1981: What it was like to go through a postseason series without Mariano Rivera. And, oddly enough, neither's absence turned out to be their biggest problem in the 2012 American League Championship Series.

The Jets went through the Tim Tebow experiment. Having let him go, the Denver Broncos got the top seed in the AFC Playoffs with Peyton Manning. The Indianapolis Colts made the Playoffs without him. The Colts did very well with a rookie quarterback, Andrew Luck. The Washington Redskins did even better with another, Robert Griffin III. The Seattle Seahawks started scoring points as if they were Nebraska tearing through the 1980s version of the Big Eight Conference. The Philadelphia Eagles had a meltdown that made the Jets look like a model of stability.

And the Kansas City Chiefs had maybe the worst season any NFL team has ever had: Other teams have gone 2-14, or worse, but the '12 Chiefs had a player kill his girlfriend, and then drive to the stadium and kill himself in front of the head coach and general manager. Who have both now been fired.

The Olympics were held in London. The World Cup was not held, but Euro 2012 was, and Spain won it, making it the 1st time a national soccer team won 3 straight major tournaments, following Euro 2008 and the 2010 World Cup. England lost their Quarterfinal match in Euro 2012 on penalty kicks (a manner of defeat that has happened to them all too often), and, playing for Italy, Mario Balotelli did his shirtless flex pose.

There was no change in the President of the United States (though there was an election), the Prime Minister of Canada or Britain, or the Pope. There were no new Amendments to the Constitution of the United States, and no new tallest building in the world.

The worst power outage in world history left 620 million people -- roughly twice the population of the United States -- without power in India. Curiosity, the Mars Science Laboratory mission's rover, successfully landed on Mars. Discovery of the Higgs Boson Particle was confirmed.

The Benghazi attack happened. The Republican Party demanded answers for the deaths of 4 Americans, and questioned President Obama's commitment to our national security. Which the Democratic Party did not do after Bush ignored a warning that led to the deaths of 3,000 Americans, which happened 11 years earlier to the day.

Austrian skydiver Felix Baumgartner became the 1st person to break the sound barrier without any machine assistance, during a record space dive out of the Red Bull Stratos helium-filled balloon, from 24 miles over Roswell, New Mexico. I still don't know how he survived the heat of re-entry.

Hurricane Sandy struck, killing 233 people. Typhoon Bopha killed over 1,000 people in the Philippines. Guess which one was more reported in the U.S. media.

Another round of Palestinian murders, and Israeli retaliation, happened. Instead of saluting the Israelis for defending themselves, the United Nations awarded the murderers "non-observer status."

Andy Griffith, Ernest Borgnine, Sally Ride, Gore Vidal, Marvin Hamlisch, Phyllis Diller, Neil Armstrong, Hal David, Michael Clarke Duncan, Andy Williams, Sylvia Kristel, George McGovern, Larry Hagman, Dave Brubeck, Ravi Shankar, Daniel Inouye, Charles Durning, Jack Klugman, Norman Schwarzkopf and Patti Page have died.

The first children of Molly Sims, Sienna Miller, Kristin Cavallari (& Jay Cutler), the aforementioned Nicole "Snooki" Polizzi, Anna Paquin, Drew Barrymore, Megan Fox, Adele and Claire Danes have been born -- and the first for both Kim Kardashian & Kanye West has been conceived.

June 11, 2012. As of this Saturday night, it will have been 222 days.  GAME ON!

Hockey's Back!

To the tune of "Welcome Back," John Sebastian's theme from the TV show Welcome Back, Kotter:

Another lockout is over. Remember: It was not a strike, it was a lockout. It was all the fault of the owners and their grinning lackey, Commissioner Gary Bettman.

Hockey's back!

A deal is at last all worked out.

Hockey's back!

Going after the Cup that we dreamed about.

Well, some names, they have changed since they've been around.

But the dreams, they've remained, and they've spun around.

And who'd have thought we'd see them?

(Who'd have thought we'd see them?)

Back here, where we need them?

(Back here, where we need them?)

Yeah, it sure feels so nice

that we got 'em on the ice!

Hockey's back!

(Hockey's back, hockey's back, hockey's back!)

(Hockey's back, hockey's back...)

Hockey's back!

So now, on ESPN

hockey's back

and NASCAR and the poker go home again!

And a season, we'll finally be getting in.

We'll see Brodeur and Crosby and Ovechkin.

And who'd have thought we'd see them?

(Who'd have thought we'd see them?)

Back here, where we need them?

(Back here, where we need them?)

Yeah, it sure feels so nice

that we got 'em on the ice!

Hockey's back!

(Hockey's back, hockey's back, hockey's back!)

(Hockey's back, hockey's back...)

(rink organ replaces Sebastian's harmonica)

And we'll see Ranger goalie Henrik Lundqvist

who's still got a sore neck from the goals he missed

And who'd have thought we'd see them?

(Who'd have thought we'd see them?)

Back here, where we need them?

(Back here, where we need them?)

Yeah, it sure feels so nice

that we got 'em on the ice!

Hockey's back!

(Hockey's back, hockey's back, hockey's back!)

(Hockey's back, hockey's back...)

Yeah, it sure feels so nice

(Hockey's back, hockey's back...)

that we got 'em on the ice!

(Hockey's back, hockey's back...)

Yeah, it sure feels so nice

that we got 'em on the ice!

Hockey's back!

Hockey's back, hockey's back, hockey's back!

Hockey's back, hockey's back, hockey's back!

Hockey's back, hockey's back, hockey's back!

Top 10 Should-Be Baseball Hall-of-Famers

In the wake of the Baseball Writers' Association of America electing no one to the Baseball Hall of Fame in Wednesday's vote, the question needs to be asked: Who is eligible for the Hall of Fame, and deserves it, but is not in?

Someone (I forget who) said that one good way to judge whether a player is deserving is if he's a "1 in 100" kind of player. That is, if you think he's in the top 1 percent of all baseball players, ever.

There are 297 people in the Hall. Of these, 236 were elected as players, rather than as managers, umpires, or executives of any kind (owners, general managers, league presidents, commissioners, or "pioneers").

Of those, 35 were elected due to the perception of their performance in the Negro Leagues -- for which statistics are, through no fault of the players involved, woefully incomplete, so we're essentially just guessing how good they were, based on the word of those who saw them play, either in contemporary newspaper accounts or from reminiscences.

That leaves 201 players whose statistical performances we can look at, and from which we can draw our own conclusions.

According to Baseball Reference, a website which is your friend whether you know it or not, there have been 17,943 men who have appeared in at least one regular-season Major League Baseball game.

Therefore, if we were adhering to the 1 percent guideline, there should be 179 players in the Hall of Fame that fit the description I gave. Not 201. Which means we may have more than we should.

Nevertheless, I'm going to list 10 players that I think should be in the Hall, but aren't.

I previously did such a list on May 14, 2010. Here were my Top 10 at that time:

10. Don Newcombe
9. Wes Ferrell
8. Allie Reynolds, Eddie Lopat and Vic Raschi
7. Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker
6. Ted Simmons
5. Tommy John
4. Jim Kaat
3. Bert Blyleven
2. Ron Santo
1. Gil Hodges

Some explanation is needed. I reckoned that, if Joe Tinker, Johnny Evers and Frank Chance, the 1906-10 Chicago Cub double play combination, could be elected as a unit, why couldn't we do this for others?

Separately, Reynolds, Lopat and Raschi were not HOFers; together, they formed a HOF unit, every bit as much as did the later Atlanta Braves triad of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz. And "TramWhit" was much worthier of the Hall than Tinker-Evers-Chance, if you're judging them solely on their playing: Chance deserved election as a manager, but was a step below greatness as a player. Tinker was no better, and Evers, while better, is a close call.

In the nearly 3 years since, Blyleven and Santo have been elected -- although Santo died before it could happen.

The Hall does not combine records for playing and managing, which hurts Hodges, but shouldn't: He should be in as a player. The Hall also does not combine records for playing and broadcasting, which hurt Santo, and still hurts Kaat. In all 4 major North American sports, only one man has been honored by his sport's Hall of Fame for both playing and broadcasting, pro football's Frank Gifford.

UPDATE: Len Dawson has joined Gifford as having been elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame as both a player and a broadcaster. But no baseball, basketball or hockey player has been so honored.

Here is Baseball Reference's top 10 nonpitchers eligible but not in, using "WAR," or "Wins Above Replacement," which is defined as how many games said player appears to have won for his team, above and beyond what a rookie just called up from the minors might do. It's subjective, and the part of it that is statistical includes a formula that I don't think I've ever seen, and don't care to. Keep in mind that Shoeless Joe Jackson and Pete Rose are not currently eligible:

1. Barry Bonds
2. Jeff Bagwell
3. Lou Whitaker
4. Bill Dahlen
5. Larry Walker
6. Bobby Grich
7. Alan Trammell
8. Tim Raines
9. Rafael Palmeiro
10. Kenny Lofton

UPDATE: Bagwell, Walker, Trammell and Raines are now in.

Incidentally, the difference between Bonds at 1 and Bagwell at 2 is, by the standards of this stat, enormous. Indeed, Bonds is 2nd all-time behind Babe Ruth.

You say Bonds and Palmeiro shouldn't be up there, because they used steroids? I agree. But this particular list isn't about who's worthy, which is based on opinion; it's about who's high-ranking and eligible, which is based on facts.

Here's the top 10 pitchers, based on Pitching WAR:

1. Roger Clemens (all-time, trails only Cy Young and Walter Johnson)
2. Curt Schilling
3. Jim McCormick
4. Bobby Mathews
5. Rick Reuschel
6. Kevin Brown
7. Luis Tiant
8. Tommy Bond
9. David Cone
10. Charlie Buffinton

UPDATE: Through the election of 2025, none of those have made it.

No, I'd never heard of McCormick, either, even though he lived most of his life in my native North Jersey. He played his last game in 1887, the 1st term of President Grover Cleveland, and anybody who played back then and isn't in the Hall of Fame is, almost certainly, going to be forgotten. And that's the difference between getting into the Hall, and not.

I had heard of Mathews, whose finale was also in 1887, but only because I read an article about the 300 Wins Club, and saw that, if you count what he did in the National Association of 1871-75 (some sources do, some don't), his career win total was 297, just short. If he'd gotten just 3 more, he'd have had 300, and he would be in. But he didn't, so he's not, and so I never heard of him until a few years ago, when I read the article online.

Bond was one of the best pitchers in the game as it moved from the first professional league, the NA, to the first totally major league, the National League, in 1876. It was a very different game then, especially as far as pitching is concerned: It was all underhanded, and batters could call for a high or a low pitch. As in baseball's British cousin, cricket, where the position is called the bowler, the pitcher was the least important defensive player, not the most important, as it would become once overhand pitching was legalized in 1884. (In the pitcher's favor, though, it then took 9 balls to walk a batter, not 4.)

And the pitching distance was extended from 50 feet to 60 feet, 6 inches in 1893, and a lot of pitchers who were good before that year either lost their effectiveness or retired. So it's hard to say that a pitcher whose best years were before 1893, and even harder if they were before 1884, would have excelled afterward. It's a bit easier to say a pitcher good between 1893 and the dawn of the Lively Ball Era in 1920, and easier still for one good between then and the dawn of the Integration Era in 1947, would have excelled afterward.

Buffinton was a pitcher for whom the 1884 legalization of overhand pitching was a godsend, but for whom the 1893 extension appears to have been the end of the line, as his last appearance was in 1892, when he was only 31. I had never heard of him until I read the book about Edward Achorn's book about the 1884 Pennant race between the Charlie "Old Hoss" Radbourn's Providence Grays and Buffinton's Boston Beaneaters, Fifty-Nine in '84: Old Hoss Radbourn, Barehanded Baseball, and the Greatest Season a Pitcher Ever Had. Again, it's the difference between being in the Hall of Fame (Radbourn, career record 309-194) and not (Buffinton, 233-152).

But let's get real: While Clemens is in the 300 Wins Club, he and Schilling are both in the 3,000 Strikeouts Club, and both Tiant and Cone have their advocates, I don't know why anyone would think Rick Reuschel or Kevin Brown was a Hall-of-Famer. And that would be my stance even if Brown hadn't broken his hand in September 2004 and then had that horrible start in Game 7 of the ALCS for the Yankees.

So who are the top 10 deserving men?

Well, if we were including the Negro Leaguers, for whom the stats just aren't available in full, we would have to include Buck O'Neil. And if Ichiro Suzuki and Hideki Matsui get considered, why not Sadaharu Oh? It's not his fault that he never played in the North American majors. But we're only looking at major leaguers.

And I won't cop out by suggesting the joint entries of ReynLopSchi and TramWhit. One TinkEvAnce in Cooperstown is enough.

But it is worth pointing out where they stand. Baseball Reference has a Hall of Fame Monitor, on which 100 is a "Likely HOFer." They also have a Hall of Fame Standards, on which 50 represents the "Average HOFer." And they have "Similarity Scores," which shows the 10 players whose statistics most closely resemble that player's, and is weighted toward players who also that player's position, so as to compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges.

HOF Monitor: Trammell 118, Reynolds 110, which means they should be in; Whitaker 92, which means he falls a little short; Raschi 82 and Lopat 64, which means they fall well short.

HOF Standards: Whitaker 43, Trammell 40, Reynolds 33, Lopat 27, Raschi 25, which means they all fall short.

10 Most Similar: Of the Yankee trio, only Reynolds has anyone in his Top 10 who are in, but those are his Top 2: Lefty Gomez and Bob Lemon. Trammell's 10 Most Similar include Whitaker, and also Barry Larkin, Ryne Sandberg and Pee Wee Reese, who are in; and Jimmy Rollins, who will probably make it. Whitaker's 10 Most Similar include Trammell (obviously); already-in players Sandberg, Larkin, Roberto Alomar and Joe Morgan; and Joe Torre, who will be in as a manager.

UPDATE: Rollins had a major dropoff that may have knocked him out of consideration. He will be eligible in 2022.

As for my Top 10, I am listing these in chronological order, not in ascending (or descending) order of how much they deserve it.

And since we're going chronologically, let me mention 3 players who are so far back that it's difficult to judge their careers, but for their pioneering roles, should be in.

Doc Adams. After all, if we're reflecting the history of the game, shouldn't we go back to the beginning of its history? Daniel Lucius Adams (1814-1899), a physician from Mount Vernon, New Hampshire, even more than the man usually credited, Alexander Cartwright, was the guiding force behind the Knickerbocker Base Ball Club and, more than any other person, comes close to being the man who shaped the rules of earlier forms of "base ball" (even into the early 20th Century, it was often printed as two words) into a game that we would recognized as "baseball," and thus comes closer than anyone else to being "the man who invented baseball."

He began with the New York Base Ball Club -- the team that beat the Knickerbockers 23-1 in what's long been considered "the first baseball game" in Hoboken, New Jersey on June 19, 1846. That club split over some dispute or other, and led to the formation of the Knickerbocker Club. So that New York Club was already in existence, and now you know why they clobbered the supposed inventors of the sport in "the first game." Adams played in that game.

According John Thorn, author of a slew of books about the sport and now the official historian of Major League Baseball, Adams essentially invented the position of shortstop, more as what we would now call a cutoff man than as a way to better stop grounders. Adams played every position available at the time except pitcher, and was a lefthanded hitter with, under the conditions of the time, power, hitting some balls from Hoboken's Elysian Fields into the Hudson River. Thorn has called him the best player of the 1840s, and he played until 1859.

More important that his performance were his innovations. In addition to inventing shortstop, he was the man who, at a New York convention to standardize rules in 1857, convinced the other men to settle on 9 innings for a game, 90 feet between bases (making official the rough estimate Cartwright made of "42 paces" between home plate and 2nd base, and between 1st and 3rd bases), and eliminating the rule of catching the ball on the first bounce still counting as an out.

Cartwright has been overcredited -- including by myself, on this blog, in years past. He is in the Hall of Fame, but probably shouldn't be, just as Abner Doubleday, whom we now know to have had nothing to do with baseball, is not. Adams should be in the Hall. And case can also be made for another Knickerbocker, William R. Wheaton (1814-1888).

Jim Creighton. Born in Brooklyn in 1841, James Creighton Jr. didn't last long, but his impact was tremendous. He was a superb batter, and as a pitcher, he used what may well be the first "trick pitch." Pitching was done underhand, but he managed to put in a snap of his wrist, and make the pitch much faster. Essentially, he invented the fastball.

A lot of people thought this was unfair. Most of them were probably in favor of big offense. Even during the American Civil War, people dug the long ball. But Creighton's delivery was described as being "as swift as it was shot out of cannon" and "fairly unhittable." Up to that point, high scores were common. If you think ERAs are high now, in the amateur era, there were scores that today's football purists would have found to be a bit high.

He played for several amateur clubs in Brooklyn, until 1898 a separate city from New York (then just Manhattan Island). He helped establish the Excelsior Club (named for the motto of New York State, meaning "Ever upward") as one of the dominant clubs. The Excelsior Club lured Creighton in 1860 but getting him a job that paid him $500 a year -- a big sum for a working man then.

Another player they lured was Asa Brainard, himself a great pitcher. They also lured his brother Henry Brainard. They were probably the first professional players, but, in American baseball as in English soccer, professionalism was then considered ungentlemanly.

On October 14, 1862, in a match against the Union Club of Morrisania (which was included in the City as part of the Borough of The Bronx when Consolidation happened in 1898), Creighton hit a home run, but suffered a hernia. With medicine being what it was then, he couldn't be helped, and spent 4 days in immense pain until he died. He was only 21.

William Arthur "Candy" Cummings is in the Hall of Fame, even though statistics suggest he wasn't such a great pitcher, because of his claim to inventing the curveball. That claim has been revealed to be highly questionable, as another pitcher seems to have thrown one in a game earlier. If Cummings is in the Hall for "inventing the curveball," why is Creighton not in the Hall for being a superb hitter and the almost-certain inventor of the fastball?

Lip Pike. While Creighton and the Brainards were the first professional players, Lipman Emanuel Pike (1845-1893) was the first player revealed to have been paid to play. The Manhattan native is also the first baseball player known to have been Jewish.

His willingness to let it be known that he was paid to play, by the first team to be known as the Philadelphia Athletics, in 1866, paved the way for the first openly all-professional team, the 1869 Cincinnati Red Stockings. That team included Asa Brainard, who had become the best pitcher in the baseball after Creighton's death, and whose name led to a star pitcher being called an "ace." (Brainard is also worthy of HOF consideration.)

The Red Stockings went through the entire 1869 season without losing a game, and were still undefeated on June 14, 1870 (their streak being anywhere from 81 to 130 games, depending on whose story you believe), before crossing the ferry to Brooklyn (the Brooklyn Bridge was in the first stages of construction and wouldn't open until 1883) to face the Atlantics at the Capitoline Grounds in what's now the Bedford-Stuyvesant section.

A crowd of at least 12,000 came out, and in a game that required 11 innings to be completed, the Atlantics -- with early stars Pike at 2nd base, Dickey Pearce at shortstop, Joe Start at 1st base, George Zettlein pitching, and the man with the wildest nickname in baseball history, the fine-fielding Bob "Death to Flying Things" Ferguson, catching -- won 8-7 to give the Cincy club their first defeat. It was the first great game in professional baseball history.

When the NA was founded in 1871, Pike was one of its first stars, leading it in home runs in each of its 1st 3 seasons. Ironically, he later played for and managed a new club called the Cincinnati Reds. He played his last game in 1887, at age 42. Unfortunately, he died of heart disease at 48, just as the 60-and-6 pitching distance ended forever the game he knew.

But, having been a nonpitcher, he is much more likely than Brainard or even Creighton to have been able to adapt to the modern game, had someone time-traveled back to the 1870s and offered him the chance to play in the 21st Century.

Now, the Top 10:

1. Wes Ferrell.  Born in Greensboro, North Carolina in 1908, Wesley Cheek Ferrell debuted in the majors with the 1927 Cleveland Indians. In his 1st 4 full seasons, he won 91 games -- all before his 25th birthday. He won 21 at 21, 25 at 22, 22 at 23 and 23 at 24. That was from 1929 to 1932, one of the biggest periods ever for hitters, rather than the Dead Ball Era of the 1900s and 1910s, or the 1960s. And it was for an Indians team that really didn't contend while he was there.

Acquired by Tom Yawkey in his bid to buy championships for the Boston Red Sox, he rode better support to add 2 more 20-win seasons, and finished with 193 wins and a .601 winning percentage.

And he was a really good hitter, too: In 1931, he won 22 games and hit 9 home runs. In 1935, he won 25 and hit 7. His lifetime batting average was .280, he had a .797 OPS, and OPS+ of exactly 100 (How many pitchers hit as well as the average hitter of their time?), and had 107 extra-base hits, including 38 home runs, more than any player whose primary position was pitcher. (This, of course, excludes former pitcher Babe Ruth.) He last appeared in the majors in 1941, and died in 1976.

So why is he not in the Hall? Well, an injury meant that his last productive season was at age 30, and he last pitched in the majors at at 33, and then came World War II. His career ERA was 4.04. Granted, that was, as I said, in the power-happy 1930s, and his career ERA+ was 117, meaning he was 17 percent better at preventing runs than the average pitcher of his time. But his career WHIP was also high, 1.481. And he also gave up a lot of home runs, including a league-leading 25 in 1937. His brother Rick Ferrell, a fine defensive catcher, is in the Hall. Wes deserves it more.

HOF Monitor: 75. HOF Standards: 22. Both mean he shouldn't be in. None of Ferrell's 10 most similar pitchers are in the Hall, and if you're under age 75, the 2 you're most likely to have seen are Rick Sutcliffe and Dave Stewart, and you don't see much agitation for either of those to be elected.

It doesn't matter: I think Ferrell should be in.

2. Gil Hodges. They don't combine playing and managing. If they did, Gilbert Raymond Hodges, born in 1924 in Indiana, would be, to mix my sports metaphors, a slam dunk. After all, he managed the New York Mets to a World Championship.

True, so did Davey Johnson, and no one recommends him for the Hall. Then again, Johnson was lucky: While he also managed L.A. and Baltimore to postseason play, he only won that one Pennant. We'll never know what else Gil could have done as a manager: He died right before the '72 season, and the Mets won the '73 Pennant.

But what a player: A 120 OPS+, 370 home runs, 10th all-time when he retired, and he did not play in a homer-happy era; and the best-fielding 1st baseman of his generation. 

HOF Monitor: 83. HOF Standards: 32. Both mean he falls a little short. Keep in mind, though, this measures only hitting, not fielding. 10 Most Similar: Norm Cash, George Foster, Tino Martinez, Jack Clark, Boog Powell, Rocky Colavito, Joe Adcock, Lee May, Willie Horton, Derrek Lee. Lee has not yet officially retired, but he isn't going to the Hall. But Colavito might belong, and Foster, Powell and Clark sure looked like they would end up in before tailing off. No matter: Gil Hodges belongs.

(UPDATE: In 2021, Hodges was finally elected.)

3. Don Newcombe. The fact that Donald Newcombe, born in 1926, is a lifelong resident of New Jersey (grew up in Madison Borough, Morris County, and has lived most of his adult life in Woodbridge) is nice, but has nothing to do with his qualifications.

Unlike a lot of the early black players, racism didn't keep him out long enough to cost him his prime, as he was 23 years old when he debuted. But injuries and alcoholism ended his career at 34, and the Korean War cost him the seasons in which he turned 26 and 27, and half of the season when he turned 28, ruining what could have been his 3 best seasons.

(Shocking: The Dodgers won the Pennant in 1952 and '53 without him -- imagine them facing the Yankees in those World Series with him. Though it's worth noting the Yanks were, themselves, without Whitey Ford due to the same war in '51 and '52, and won the Series in those seasons anyway.)

In the 3 seasons before that, his 1st 3, he won 56 games; in his 1st 2 after that, he won 47 -- he went 47-12! In 1955, he won 20 games and hit 7 home runs, a feat matched only by Wes Ferrell (twice), Bob Lemon, and Newk's eventual Dodger teammate Don Drysdale. Cy Young died the following off-season, and the Cy Young Award was established to honor the pitcher (first in all of the majors, then in 1967 in each League) judged to be most valuable to his team, a reflection of the idea that, not playing every day, pitchers didn't deserve the MVP. Newk ended up winning the 1st Cy Young, and the MVP anyway, with 27 wins, a total topped only once since and matched only 2 other times.

He had a lifetime batting average of .271, a .705 OPS (though only an 85 OPS+, still amazing for a pitcher), and had 51 extra-base hits, including 15 home runs. He won 149 games despite missing almost 3 prime seasons, with career stats of a .623 winning percentage and a 1.203 WHIP. In his 1st 6 seasons, the Dodgers finished 1st or 2nd every year; in each of his 1st 5 full seasons, the Dodgers either won the Pennant or lost it on the final day.

The knock on Newk was that he wasn't a big-game pitcher. In 1949, as a rookie, he started Game 1 of the World Series and held the Yankees scoreless for 8 innings, but Allie Reynolds held the Dodgers scoreless for 9 and Tommy Henrich homered off Newk in the bottom of the 9th to win it. On the final day in 1950, he held the Phillies off for 9 innings, before giving up Dick Sisler's Pennant-winning homer in the 10th. 

In the final game of the 1951 Playoff, he threw his 264th through 272nd innings of the season, complained that he was tired in the 270th, was told by teammate Jackie Robinson (who didn't want people to see a black man complain of fatigue), "You keep pitching until your fucking arm falls off," and was finally relieved in the 9th while still holding a 4-2 lead in the Polo Grounds. (Ralph Branca was brought in, and you know what happened: The Giants won the Pennant.) Newk gave his all in big games, and that his opponents were often the better team isn't his fault.

Finally, allowance should be made that, while he was just 23 when he reached the majors, he did pitch in the Negro Leagues, and quite well, helping the Newark Eagles win the 1946 Negro World Series.

HOF Monitor: 78. HOF Standards: 28. Both mean he should not be in. 10 Most Similar: Ray Kremer, Dizzy Dean, Schoolboy Rowe, Dennis Leonard, Chris Carpenter, Newk's Dodger teammate Elwin "Preacher" Roe, Roy Oswalt, Nig Cuppy, Rip Sewell, Mike Garcia. Dean is in. Kremer and Rowe fall a little short. Leonard, Roe, Sewell and Garcia are well short. So was George Cuppy, a righthander for the 1890s Cleveland Spiders, who was, in that politically incorrect time, called "Nig" because he was a white man with a dark complexion. Oswalt and Carpenter are still active, but neither will make it.

4. Jim Kaat. Born on the Lake Michigan coast of Michigan in 1938, he won 283 games and 16 Gold Gloves. He was the ace of the Minnesota Twins' 1st Pennant, and was a key member of a St. Louis Cardinals' World Championship -- 17 years later. As far as I know, that's the longest gap between World Series appearances of any player.

In between, he helped the Twins reach the LCS twice and the Philadelphia Phillies to 3 times. He won 18 games at age 23, and 20 at age 36. And he was a terrific broadcaster. And as both a player and a broadcaster, "Kitty" was a man of sterling character. Put him in.

HOF Monitor: 130, which means he should be in. HOF Standards: 44, which means he falls a little short. 10 Most Similar: Tommy John (No, but should be), Robin Roberts (Yes), Fergie Jenkins (Yes), Eppa Rixey (Yes), Jamie Moyer (officially still active but probably won't make it), Bert Blyleven (Yes), Early Wynn (Yes), Burleigh Grimes (Yes), Frank Tanana (No) and Red Ruffing (Yes).

(UPDATE: Kaat was elected in 2022.)

5. Tommy John. Born in 1943 in Terre Haute, Indiana, Thomas Edward John used a blazing fastball to win 124 games for the Cleveland Indians, Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers -- which would be a fine career for most pitchers.

Then he wrecked his elbow. Then he had surgery, a pioneering procedure that now bears his name. Then, after sitting out a season, he became a sinkerballer, and won 164 games for the Dodgers, New York Yankees, California Angels and Oakland Athletics -- winning more games after the surgery that could have ended his career (had it gone wrong) than he did before it.

Think about this: Due to an injury, Dizzy Dean won "only" 150 games, and he's in the Hall of Fame. Due to an injury, Sandy Koufax won "only" 165 games, and he's in the Hall of Fame. Though, to be fair, from 1933 to 1937, Dean was one of the top 3 pitchers on the planet along with Carl Hubbell and Satchel Paige; and from 1961 to 1966, Koufax was one of the top 5 pitchers on the planet at the time and from 1963 to 1966 was one of the top 5 pitchers who has ever lived. TJ was only occasionally (1973-74, 1977-80) one of the top 5 or even one of the top 10 pitchers on the planet.

But he won more games after his potentially career-ending injury than Dean did in his entire career, and almost as many as Koufax won in his entire career. Total wins: 288, the closest any pitcher (aside from the aforementioned Bobby Mathews) comes to 300 major league wins -- long considered a benchmark for Cooperstown -- without making it. His .555 career winning percentage also opens eyes.

HOF Monitor: 112, which means he should be in. HOF Standards: 44, which means he falls a little short. 10 Most Similar: Kaat (No, but should be), Roberts (Yes), Blyleven (Yes), Jenkins (Yes), Wynn (Yes), Grimes (Yes), Tom Glavine (Not yet eligible, but will get in), Tony Mullane (No), Don Sutton (Yes), Rixey (Yes).

6. Ted Simmons. You have to judge the stats of catchers, who play the hardest defensive position, a little differently from those of outfielders and 1st basemen. Ted Lyle Simmons (not "Theodore"), born in 1949 in the Detroit suburbs, has a lifetime batting average of .285. His OPS is .785, his OPS+ 117, and he hit 248 home runs despite his position and playing most of his home games at Busch Memorial Stadium in St. Louis.

As the man who sponsors his Baseball-Reference.com page points out, compared to other HOF catchers of the last half-century, "The Mighty Simba" had more career RBIs than Johnny Bench, scored more runs than Gary Carter, and collected more hits than Yogi Berra or Carlton Fisk. He had 3 seasons of 100 or more RBIs and just missed 4 other times. He played in 8 All-Star Games.

He led the Milwaukee Brewers to their 1st 2 postseason appearances in 1981 and '82 -- until 2008 their only postseason appearances -- but, ironically, ran into his former Cardinal teammates in his only World Series appearance, and still almost won it for the Brew Crew, hitting 2 home runs in that 7-game thriller. (In another irony, the Series MVP was his replacement as Cardinal catcher, Darrell Porter.) He never won a Gold Glove, but that was because he played in the same league at the same time as Bench and Carter, and then switched leagues and got stuck behind Fisk.

From the ages of 22 to 33, he was one of the most productive catchers ever, was still a productive regular at 35, and still a productive pinch-hitter at 37 -- pretty good considering he caught 1,771 games in his career, more than all but 4 players before him.

HOF Monitor: 124, which means he should be in. HOF Standards: 44, which means he falls a little short. 10 Most Similar: Miguel Tejada (not yet eligible, and wouldn't get in even if you didn't know he was a juicer), Trammell (No, but should be), Joe Torre (No, falls a little short as far as his playing is concerned), Fisk (Yes), Carter (Yes), Whitaker (No, but should be), Larkin (Yes), Joe Cronin (Yes), Berra (Yes), Sandberg (Yes).

(UPDATE: Simmons was elected in 2019.)

7. Tim Raines. Quick: Tell me what these 4 men have in common: Rickey Henderson, Lou Brock, Billy Hamilton and Ty Cobb? Answer: They are the only 4 human beings, living or dead, male or female, black or white or whatever, American or foreign-born, who stole more bases in Major League Baseball games than the 808 stolen by Raines.

And he wasn't just about the steals. Born outside Orlando in 1959, Timothy Raines was the NL's answer to Henderson, the best leadoff hitter the league had ever seen. He batted .294 lifetime, topping .300 7 times and just missing one other, had an OPS+ of 123, and collected 2,605 hits. With the Montreal Expos, he led the NL in stolen bases in 1981, '82, '83 and '84; in runs scored in '83 and '87; in doubles in '84; and in batting average and on-base percentage (.334 and .413) in 1986.

He nearly won the NL Rookie of the Year in 1981, as the Expos came within 1 run of a Pennant. He didn't return to the postseason until 1993 with the Chicago White Sox, and in 1996 and 1998 won rings as the closest thing the Joe Torre Yankees had to a regular left fielder.

HOF Monitor: 90. HOF Standards: 47. In each case, he falls a little short. 10 Most Similar: Brock (Yes), Kenny Lofton (No), Max Carey (Yes), Johnny Damon (still active but I don't think he makes it), Willie Davis (No), Jimmy Ryan (No), Jose Cruz Sr. (No), Julio Franco (No), Fred Clarke (Yes) and Enos Slaughter (Yes).

(UPDATE: Raines was elected in 2017.)

8. Curt Schilling. Born in 1966 in Anchorage and grew up in Phoenix, I am judging Curtis Montague Schilling totally on performance, not on personality. 216-146 (including 3 seasons of 21 or more wins), for .597. ERA, 3.46; ERA+, 127. WHIP, 1.137. Strikeouts, 3,116, including 2 (nearly 3) seasons of 300 or more.

Big pitcher in big games, which certainly helps his cause. Pitched a shutout in Game 5 of the 1993 World Series to keep the Phillies alive. Went 4-0 with a 1.11 ERA for the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 2001 postseason. Gutted out wins on an injured ankle in 2004 in Game 6 of the ALCS and Game 2 of the World Series to help the Red Sox finally win the Series after 86 years. Went 3-0 in the 2007 postseason as the Sox did it again.

HOF Monitor: 171, meaning he's an easy choice. HOF Standards: 46, meaning he's a little short. 10 Most Similar: Kevin Brown, Bob Welch, Orel Hershiser, Freddie Fitzsimmons, Milt Pappas, John Smoltz, Don Drysdale, Dazzy Vance, Jim Perry, and his former Red Sox teammate Pedro Martinez. Only Drysdale and Vance are already in, and only Smoltz and Pedro are likely to get in.

9. Larry Walker. Born in 1966 in a suburb of Vancouver, Larry Kenneth Robert Walker got skunked for a 3rd year in a row this week. Part of it was the fact that he played 1st 1/3rd of his career with the Expos, making him the greatest player to both come from and play in Canada. Part of it was the fact that he played his most productive years for the Colorado Rockies in homer-happy Coors Field.

And part of it was a thin postseason resume: He helped the Rox reach the Playoffs in 1995, but didn't get back until 2004, when he was one of the few St. Louis Cardinals to hit well in the World Series (.357, 2 homers, 3 RBIs).

For a guy who played in a homer-happy park, his career home run total doesn't look so hot: 383. Although that's more than a few guys who are in, like Joe DiMaggio, Johnny Bench and Jim Rice. But he batted .313 at a time when few players had lifetime averages over .300. He batted .300 9 times and just missed a 10th; he batted at least .322 6 times, and 3 times in 4 years he won the NL batting title: .363 in 1998, .379 in '99, and .350 in 201. His career OPS+ is 141.

HOF Monitor: 148, an easy choice. HOF Standards: 58, also an easy choice. 10 Most Similar: Duke Snider (Yes), his former Rockies teammate Ellis Burks (No), Moises Alou (Not yet eligible and won't make it), Jim Edmonds (Not yet eligible and will be a tough call), DiMaggio (Yes), Johnny Mize (Yes), Vladimir Guerrero (Active and has an excellent shot if he's not proven to be a juicer), Carlos Beltran (Active and probably won't make it), Chuck Klein (Yes) and his former Rockies teammate Todd Helton (Active but has really declined the last 3 seasons, and now might not make it).

(UPDATE: Walker was elected in 2020.)

10. Craig Biggio. Like the Casey Stengel-era Yankee Big 3 and TramWhit, Biggio should have been elected in a package deal with Jeff Bagwell. But if you can only pick one, it should be Craig Alan Biggio, born in 1965 in Smithtown, Long Island, because he has the 3,000 hits. And when 668 of those are doubles -- only Tris Speaker, Pete Rose, Stan Musial and Ty Cobb had more, and of those only Rose debuted after World War II -- and there's no accusation of steroid use, you should have an easy case.

Not that you could go particularly wrong by selecting Jeffrey Robert Bagwell, born in 1968 in Boston and grew up in Killingworth, Connecticut. Lifetime batting average .297, with 6 .300+ seasons and 8 100+ RBI seasons. OPS+ 149 -- among players debuting in my lifetime, only Bonds, Albert Pujols, Mark McGwire, Frank Thomas, Joey Votto, Manny Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera are higher; only Pujols, Thomas and Votto have avoided serious juicing allegations.

Bags has been suspected, but unless something is being hidden, those suspicions are just guesses. His 449 home runs make him the Astros' all-time leader, and he added 448 doubles. Yes, they played the 2nd half of their careers' home games at hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park, but they also played the 1st half at the pitcher-friendly Astrodome.

HOF Monitor: Biggio 169, Bagwell 150. HOF Standards: Bagwell 59, Biggio 57. Easy choices.

Biggio's 10 Most Similar: Robin Yount (Yes), Derek Jeter (Active but an easy choice), Morgan (Yes), Paul Molitor (Yes), Alomar (Yes), Cal Ripken (Yes), Damon (Active but probably won't make it), Brooks Robinson (Yes), Whitaker (No but should be) and George Brett (Yes).

Bagwell's 10 Most Similar: Carlos Delgado (Not yet eligible, hard to think of him as a HOFer but he did hit 473 home runs with 9 100+ RBI seasons in mostly pitchers' parks), Thomas (Not yet eligible but should make it), Fred McGriff (Not yet in but should be), Guerrero (Active and has an excellent shot if he's not proven to be a juicer), Helton (Active but now a question mark), Jason Giambi (Not yet eligible and wouldn't make it even if you didn't know he juiced), Andres Galarraga (No, and is a borderline case at best), Willie Stargell (Yes), Pujols (Active but will almost certainly make it unless he's outed as a juicer) and Orlando Cepeda (Yes).

Of these, the most deserving? Biggio, which makes sense, as he is the one of these who has come the closest to election.

(UPDATE: Biggio was elected in 2015.)

Hole of Fame

Apparently, the Baseball Writers Association of America believed that, of the players who are currently eligible for the Hall of Fame under their jurisdiction -- players who appeared in an MLB game in at least 10 seasons, as far back as 1993 and as recently, but no more so, than 2007 -- none were deserving of election.

This year, we have a Hole of Fame.

A player needed to gain 75 percent of the vote to get in. Here was the voting, with the players' names, most familiar positions, and most familiar teams:

Craig Biggio, 2nd base, Houston Astros: 68.2 percent
Jack Morris, pitcher, Detroit Tigers: 67.7
Jeff Bagwell, 1st base, Houston Astros: 59.6
Mike Piazza, catcher, New York Mets: 57.8
Tim Raines, left field, Montreal Expos: 52.2
Lee Smith, pitcher, Chicago Cubs: 47.8
Curt Schilling, pitcher, Boston Red Sox: 38.8
Roger Clemens, pitcher, New York Yankees: 37.6
Barry Bonds, left field, San Francisco Giants: 36.2
Edgar Martinez, designated hitter, Seattle Mariners: 35.9
Alan Trammell, shortstop, Detroit Tigers: 33.6
Larry Walker, right field, Colorado Rockies: 21.6
Fred McGriff, 1st base, Atlanta Braves: 20.7
Dale Murphy, center field, Atlanta Braves: 18.6.
Mark McGwire, 1st base, St. Louis Cardinals: 16.9
Don Mattingly, 1st base, New York Yankees: 13.2
Sammy Sosa, right field, Chicago Cubs: 12.5
Rafael Palmeiro, 1st base, Baltimore Orioles: 8.8
Bernie Williams, center field, New York Yankees: 3.3
Kenny Lofton, center field, Cleveland Indians: 3.2
Sandy Alomar Jr., catcher, Cleveland Indians: 2.8
Julio Franco, 2nd base, Cleveland Indians: 1.1 (6 votes)
David Wells, pitcher, New York Yankees: 0.9 (5 votes)
Steve Finley, center field, Arizona Diamondbacks: 0.7 (4 votes)
Shawn Green, right field, Los Angeles Dodgers: 0.4 (2 votes)
Aaron Sele, pitcher, Seattle Mariners: 0.2 (1 vote)
Jeff Cirillo, 3rd base, Milwaukee Brewers: no votes
Royce Clayton, shortstop, San Francisco Giants: no votes
Jeff Conine, 1st base, Florida Marlins: no votes
Roberto Hernández, pitcher, Chicago White Sox: no votes
Ryan Klesko, left field, Atlanta Braves: no votes
José Mesa, pitcher, Cleveland Indians: no votes
Reggie Sanders, right field, Cincinnati Reds: no votes
Mike Stanton, pitcher, New York Yankees: no votes
Todd Walker, 2nd base, Minnesota Twins: no votes
Rondell White, left field, Montreal Expos: no votes
Woody Williams, pitcher, St. Louis Cardinals: no votes

Biggio, Piazza, Schilling, Clemens, Bonds, Sosa, Lofton, Alomar, Franco, Wells, Finley, Green, Sele, Cirillo, Clayton, Conine, Hernandez, Klesko, Mesa, Sanders, Stanton, Walker, White and Williams each last appeared in 2007, and thus were eligible for the 1st time.

Bernie, Lofton, Alomar, Franco, Wells, Finley, Green, Sele, Cirillo, Clayton, Conine, Hernandez, Klesko, Mesa, Sanders, Stanton, Walker, White and Williams each got less than 5 percent of the vote, and thus are removed from future eligibility via the BBWAA.

Murphy was in his last year of eligibility by the BBWAA. He now has to wait until he becomes eligible through the Hall of Fame's Committee on Veterans.

Aaron Sele. Decent pitcher. Lasted 15 years in the majors. Won 148 games against 112 losses. But career ERA 4.61, ERA+ an even 100 (meaning he was at exactly the average for a pitcher of his era), WHIP 1.491. No way he should be in the Hall of Fame.

And yet, he got 1 vote.

Or, you could look at it the other way: In spite of winning only 2 fewer games than Dizzy Dean, and only 17 fewer games than Sandy Koufax -- truly great pitchers, icons of their respective generations, with injury-shortened careers -- he only got 1 more vote for the Hall of Fame than I did.

Mike Stanton. Not a great relief pitcher, although he did notch 84 saves. And he had the oddity of reaching the postseason in every single available season that he was in the major leagues, from 1991 to 2002, until he ended up with the Mets and thus ended his chances.

He reached the postseason with the Braves in 1991, '92 and '93 -- remember, there was no postseason in '94 -- with the Red Sox in '95, with the Texas Rangers in '96, and with the Yankees in '97, '98, '99, 2000, '01 and '02. His postseason ERA was 2.10, his postseason WHIP 1.150. He won Pennants with the Braves in '91 and '92, and with the Yankees in '98, '99, '00 and '01. He won rings with the Yankees in '98, '99 and '00. One of those guys about whom it can be said, "It's funny how these winning teams keep following him around." But he's far from a Hall-of-Famer.

And yet, he got exactly as many Hall of Fame votes as I did. And I never even played in Little League!

*

If we didn't know of the existence of performance-enhancing drugs -- even if these players did -- which of the eligible players would have gotten my vote?

Biggio, Morris, Bagwell, Piazza, Raines, Schilling, Clemens, Bonds, McGriff, McGwire, Sosa and Palmeiro. Possibly Smith, Martinez, Trammell and Alomar. (Sorry, Donnie.  Sorry, Bernie.)

But we do know about the existence of PEDs. Based on what we know about who took them, and when, who would have gotten my vote?

Biggio, Morris, Bagwell, Piazza, Raines, Schilling, Clemens, and McGriff.

Yes, I know, we all "know" that Clemens used them. But he went through due process, and there was no admissible evidence presented. "Not Guilty" was the correct verdict. So, without proof, we should not keep Clemens out.

Bagwell was accused of using them. So was Piazza. No evidence has ever been shown. (Someone commented yesterday that plenty of people have accused Piazza, including some who say he admitted it, but, for the moment, it's all hearsay.) And I'd still like to see the alleged blood on Schilling's "Bloody Sock" tested.

Biggio, Morris, Raines and McGriff have never been publicly accused. While Raines used cocaine, so did Orlando Cepeda and Ferguson Jenkins, and they're in -- and rightfully so.

To elect nobody is a disgrace. And if any of these guys get in later, well, what the hell?

I know there are voters who will not vote for a player in his 1st year of eligibility, no matter what, so that they can concentrate on players who have, in their opinion, been thus far unfairly denied.

Well, it doesn't work that way. If a player was eligible for election last year, and was worthy but you didn't vote for him, why not? Did he suddenly, over the course of one year, become more worthy? He didn't play another game, didn't get another hit, didn't retire another batter, didn't make another great defensive play. He's the same guy, just one year older. If he was eligible in 2012, and he was good enough for you to vote for him in 2013, why didn't you vote for him in 2012 when he was exactly as good as he is now?

The Pro Football Hall of Fame annually lists 15 finalists, and elects a maximum of 7 from that list. Baseball's Hall has no limit. Theoretically, they could elect none, or a dozen.

This time, they elected none. Why?

*

The apparently untainted got shafted. We talk about baseball as being like a religion, and ballparks as "cathedrals." Well, baseball is not a religion. No one should have to suffer for someone else's sins.

I'm a Yankee Fan. I hate the Mets. I found Piazza to be overrated, and annoying as hell. But, based on performance (if not on personality), he deserves election to the Hall of Fame.

Morris. Winningest pitcher of the 1980s. Helped 3 different teams win a World Series. How is he not in the Hall of Fame?

Raines. More stolen bases than any human, living or dead, except for 4. And a contributor to 2 Yankee rings. Why is he not in the Hall?

Biggio: 3,000 hits. Bagwell: 449 home runs. True, they did this while playing the second half of their careers in Minute Maid Park, formerly Enron Field, a.k.a. Ten Run Field. But they played the first half of their careers in the freakin' Astrodome, which, unlike most domed stadiums, heavily favored pitchers. How are they not Hall-of-Famers? Are they being punished for playing in Houston -- not a major media center like New York, Los Angeles, Chicago or Boston?

*

Jayson Stark of ESPN had an interesting take on it this no-vote vote:

A man who hit 762 home runs wasn't elected to the Hall of Fame.

A pitcher who won seven Cy Young Awards wasn't elected to the Hall of Fame.

A man who hit 609 home runs only got 12.5 percent of the vote.

A catcher who made 12 All-Star teams missed election by 98 votes.

Even a guy who got 3,060 hits found out Wednesday he didn't do enough to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

It boggles the mind. Doesn't it? We were just presented the most star-studded Hall of Fame ballot in maybe 75 years. And NOBODY got elected?

Imagine that there is a Science Fiction Hall of Fame. Now imagine that William Shatner didn't get enough votes to qualify, because of his appearance in Airplane II. Ridiculous!

It's like writing a script for Hawaii Five-O, and not having Steve McGarrett say, "Book 'em, Danno."

It's like refereeing a soccer game at Old Trafford, and not awarding Manchester United a bogus penalty.

Stark continues:

In the wake of this stunning election, it's time for all of us to ponder that question. What is the Hall of Fame? What should it be? What is it supposed to be?

Do we really want to look up, 10 or 20 years from now, and find we've constructed a Hall of Fame that doesn't include:

• The all-time home-run leader (Barry Bonds)?

• The pitcher who won the most Cy Youngs in history (Roger Clemens)?

• The man who broke Roger Maris' storied home-run record (Mark McGwire)?

• The hitter who had more 60-homer seasons than any player ever (Sammy Sosa)?

• The greatest hitting catcher in history (Mike Piazza)?

• One of four hitters with 3,000 hits and 500 home runs (Rafael Palmeiro)?

• And -- aw, what the heck, might as well throw him in there -- the all-time hit king (Peter Edward Rose)?

Let me ask you: What kind of Hall of Fame is that?

Do we really want a Hall of Fame that basically tries to pretend that none of those men ever played baseball? That none of that happened? Or that none of that should have happened?

Hey, here's a bulletin for you: It happened. The '90s happened. The first few years of the 21st century happened. I saw it with my very own eyeballs. So did you...

And how did it happen? The sport let it happen. That's how. Bud Selig let it happen. The union let it happen. The owners let it happen. The managers let it happen. The agents let it happen. The media let it happen. Front offices across the continent let it happen. And the players never stepped up to stop it from happening. It... all... happened. And no one in baseball has ever done anything, even after all these years, to make it un-happen, if you know what I mean.

No records have been stripped. No championships have been stricken from anyone's permanent record. No numbers have been changed. No asterisks have been stamped in any record book. It all happened.

So we need to have a long, serious national conversation, starting right now, about where those events fit into the contours of the Hall of Fame. I'm ready if you are.

Stark is right, but incomplete. There's one more group who "let it happen." Us.

That's right: If we place the blame everywhere that it belongs, our last stop, and perhaps our longest stop, should be in the mirror. We, the fans, chose to accept it, because we "dig the long ball." We chose to accept that it was good, and that if there was cheating going on, we were fine with it. We chose to look the other way.

When did that change? When did it stop being okay for a player to use performance-enhancing drugs? Were the 70 homers that McGwire hit in 1998, and the 66 that Sosa hit the same season, okay; but the 73 that Bonds hit in 2001 not okay? Is it because we found Big Mac and Slammin' Sammy to be likeable, and Barry to be unlikeable?

When they held the 1st Hall of Fame vote in 1936, 5 men got the necessary 75 percent of the vote. Four were considered to be wonderful human beings, liked by nearly everybody: Babe Ruth, Honus Wagner, Christy Mathewson and Walter Johnson.

But the player who got the most votes? It was Ty Cobb, who, as great as he was on the field, was a miserable human being, a man with a violent streak, a proud racist, a womanizer, a man who drove away 2 wives, and who, when he died, had few friends. (He'd also had 2 sons predecease him, leaving a son and 2 daughters, 1 of whom apparently wanted little to do with him.) At his funeral, there were about 150 people, but only 3 former players, none of them teammates: Mickey Cochrane, Ray Schalk and Nap Rucker.

If Cobb belongs in the Hall of Fame despite all of his Tycobbness, surely Bonds belongs despite all of his Barrybondsness.

"But Mike," you say, "Cobb never took an unfair advantage." What do you call sharpening his spikes to cut the legs of opposing fielders, thus reducing their effectiveness?

Whitey Ford, Don Drysdale and Don Sutton scuffed baseballs. Gaylord Perry admitting putting foreign substances on baseballs. Lots of players used amphetamines, or "greenies" in baseball parlance. Mike Schmidt has admitted it, and he got in the Hall of Fame on the 1st try, and he's generally considered the greatest 3rd baseman ever and a good guy.

Lots of ballplayers were alcoholics. Cobb, Ruth, King Kelly, Hack Wilson, Mickey Mantle. Alcohol is a drug. Though hardly performance-enhancing.  nd those guys are in the Hall.

Lots of ballplayers were womanizers. Cobb, Kelly, Ruth, Mantle, Joe DiMaggio (at least, before he met Marilyn Monroe), Ted Williams. And they're in the Hall.

Or maybe... Maybe the standard for what's "okay" changed when the Boston Red Sox started winning World Series by cheating. You'll notice that the Yankees bore the brunt of the accusations, while David Ortiz and (at least for a while) Manny Ramirez got excused. And so did several other suspected Sox players, including Schilling.

As in, Red Sox fans, including those in the media, such as (N)ESPN, fell victim to what I call the Maxwell Smart Syndrome: "We'll allowed to lie, cheat, steal and kill: We're the Good Guys!"

The Sox were "the good guys," so it was okay for Papi and Manny, and whoever else, to use PEDs. The Yankees were "the Evil Empire," so it was not only wrong for them to cheat, but expected. The Sox should be allowed to keep their 2004 and '07 titles, but the Yankees should be stripped of the ones they won in 1996, '98, '99 and 2000.

Spare me. I've been over this: No team was more hurt by steroids than the Yankees. If their achievements need to be stricken from the record books, then so do those most of the teams that beat them.

Those Red Sox. The 2003 Marlins and 2006 Tigers of Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez. The 2001 Diamondbacks of Luis Gonzalez (who is not yet eligible) and Matt Williams (who dropped off the eligibility list by getting less than 5 percent of the vote). The 1997 Indians of Manny. The 1995 Mariners of Jay Buhner. (As far as I know, the 2002 and '05 Angels, and the '07 Indians, were clean. The 1996-99 Rangers, with Pudge and Juan Gonzalez, were dirty as hell, but never beat the Yankees.)

If it's not okay for the 1996-2007 Yankees (2007 being the cutoff date, because that's when the Mitchell Report came out), then it's not okay for the 2003-07 Red Sox.

Of course, the reverse is true: It's not okay for the Yankees. But what we know about those Yankees pales in comparison to what we know about those Red Sox. Clemens? No proof. Andy Pettitte? Briefly, just for the sake of an injury, in a year the Yankees didn't win. Alex Rodriguez? As far as we now know, not while he was a Yankee. Anybody else? Effects minimal compared to Ortiz and Ramirez.

*

Stark again:

We'll also need to contemplate another powerful question: What happens if we elect a player one of these years and later find out that he, too, was a performance-enhancing drug user?

Or here's a tougher question: What if we've already elected somebody like that?

I bet we have, to be honest. I know I'm not alone in believing that. When I had this conversation with one baseball official recently, he told me, with no hesitation, he thinks we probably have. Think what kind of mess it would cause if we ever find out who that is. Think of the ramifications.

If we decide, after our national conversation, we want the Hall to be a sanctuary, we would have no choice but to expel a player like that. Right? It's either holy or it's not. So if this is the route we settle upon, zero tolerance would be the only way to go.

On the other hand, if we decide this is a museum we're talking about, we could just rewrite his plaque. And let the truth do the talking.

Remember the episode of Seinfeld where Jerry dated a seriously stacked woman named Sidra Holland (her last name revealed in the show's final episode), played by Teri Hatcher? Who, shortly thereafter, got the role of Lois Lane on Lois & Clark: The New Adventures of Superman? Fitting, considering that Jerry had a Superman fixation and dated one woman (played by Paula Marshall) because he reminded her of Lois, and another (played by soap opera actress Renee Props) because her name was Lois.

Well, Elaine told Jerry, "They're fake." Jerry said, "You don't tell a guy something like that! It's like finding out Mickey Mantle corked his bat!"

At the end of the episode, Sidra, having denied Jerry the right to ever touch them, said, "By the way: They're real, and they're spectacular." The "spectacular" part wasn't in the script: Teri ad-libbed it. She is now 48, and she's still spectacular.

No one has ever actually suggested that Mantle corked his bat -- although Norm Cash admitted to doing it, and Graig Nettles got caught. Cash hit 377 home runs, Nettles 390 -- and neither is in the Hall, or is ever likely to be.

Jose Canseco, whose declarations and guesses about who used (including himself) have mostly been proven to be correct, has said that there is a player already in the Hall who used. He hasn't said who it is. I've heard whispers about Cal Ripken. I have no evidence; the closest I come is pointing out what happened to his hair.

So what happens if, and when, it is revealed that a player already in the Hall was a user? What, then, do we say to Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, Palmeiro, Clemens, and anyone else we know, or suspect, to have used?

Maybe then, it will be time to say -- maybe, it is even time to say it now, after each has already been denied election at least once -- "Okay, we denied you cheating bastards the first time around, and in some cases, more times. It's over. We've punished you enough. We'll let you in. We'll put notations on your plaques, or maybe we'll stick your plaques all together in a corner of the gallery and say, 'These were the guys who got in here by less than totally honest means.' But you've done your time."

Maybe that is the most just thing to do.

But it will make for an awfully awkward induction ceremony.  Can you imagine the speeches? Especially Bonds'?

Maybe denying them the right to make an acceptance speech should be the final punishment. Such a restriction on free speech borders on the unconstitutional, but it would be a fitting closing of the book.

Maybe it is time to write that closing, and close the book.

UPDATE: Craig Biggio was elected in 2015, his 3rd year of eligibility. Mike Piazza was elected in 2016, his 4th year. Jeff Bagwell (his 7th year) and Tim Raines (his 10th) were elected in 2017. Alan Trammell and Jack Morris (both through the Veterans' Committee) were elected in 2018.

Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Rafael Palmeiro, all eligible when this post was written in 2013 but tainted by steroid accusations, were still on the outside looking in after the 2018 election.

Eligible at that point, and not seriously accused, but also on the outside looking in, were Lee Smith,
Edgar Martinez, Larry Walker, Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy and Don Mattingly.