Ken Griffey Jr., 630, age 40. Plays home games at Safeco Field in Seattle. Has been hurt a lot. Is rumored to be retiring at the end of this season. Chances of 661 to pass Willie Mays, or anyone else for that matter: Poor.
Alex Rodriguez, 583, age 34. Plays home games at Yankee Stadium II in New York. Shows no signs of slowing down. Just tied Mark McGwire. Chances of 587, passing Frank Robinson; of 610, passing Sammy Sosa: Excellent Chances of 661, passing Mays (and almost certainly Griffey): Very good. Chances of 700: Very good. Chances of 715, passing Babe Ruth: Very good. Chances of 756, passing Hank Aaron: Good. Chances of 763, passing Barry Bonds to become the all-time leader, legit or otherwise: Good. Whether he will eventually get surpassed, himself, by Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, or anyone else, it's too soon to tell; but if A-Rod stays healthy, he will surpass Bonds.
Jim Thome, 565, age 39. Plays home games at Target Field in Minneapolis. We don't yet know how good a hitters' park that is, as it just opened. Has slowed down, but still has plenty of power. Chances of 570, passing Rafael Palmeiro; 573, passing Harmon Killebrew; 583, passing McGwire; and 587, passing Robinson: Very good. Chances of 610, passing Sosa: Good. Chances of 661, passing Mays (and almost certainly Griffey): Poor.
Manny Ramirez, 546, age 38. Plays home games at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. Plays in a pitchers' park, and appears to be running down fast. Chances of 548, passing Mike Schmidt; 563, passing Reggie Jackson; 570, passing Palmeiro; 573, passing Harmon Killebrew, Very good. Chances of 583, passing McGwire; and 587, passing Robinson: Good. Chances of 610, passing Sosa: Poor.
Chipper Jones, 427, age 38. Plays home games at Turner Field in Atlanta. Not what he was, at an age when many sluggers are. Chances of 500: Not good.
Jason Giambi, 409, age 39. Plays home games at Coors Field in Denver. I don't care if he is playing at the Colorado Space Center: Forget it. Chances of 500: Poor.
Vladimir Guerrero, 408, age 35. Plays home games at Arlington Ballpark in Texas. Hitters' park, and can still crush the ball when healthy. Chances of 500: Fair.
No other active player has 400 home runs, so I won't speculate on Pujols, Howard or anyone else reaching 500 (or more) until they get to 400.
3000 Hits
Ken Griffey Jr., 2764, age 40. Plays home games at Safeco Field in Seattle. Has been hurt a lot. Is rumored to be retiring at the end of this season. Chances of 3000: Poor.
Derek Jeter, 2751, age 36. Plays home games at Yankee Stadium II in New York. Had one of his best seasons last year. Usually healthy. Chances of 3000: Excellent, most likely on or around May 20, 2011. (I may have to revive my estimated date on my "countdown" feature.) Chances of 3500: Good, probably by the end of the 2013 season, when he'll be 39. Chances of 4000: Not good, as he'd have to keep up his 198 hits-per-season pace until age 42. Chances of 4257, which would make him the game's all-time leader: Poor, but he's the only active player with even that much of a chance of dethroning The Gambler.
Ivan Rodriguez, 2715, age 38. Plays home games at Nationals Park in Washington. Hasn't even been a starter the last couple of years. Chances of 3000: Poor.
Alex Rodriguez, 2533, age 34. Plays home games at new Yankee Stadium. Shows no signs of slowing down. Chances of 3000: Good, probably in mid-August 2012.
Garret Anderson, 2503, age 38. Plays home games at Dodger Stadium. Was remarkably steady for years, but went a little downhill last season. Chances of 3000: Poor.
Manny Ramirez, 2497, age 38. Plays home games at Dodger Stadium. Appears to be running down fast. Chances of 2500: Excellent. Chances of 3000: Not good.
300 Wins
Forget it, the active leader is Andy Pettitte with 229, and he won't get to 300 unless he stays this strong until he's 45. Next-best is Kevin Millwood with 155, and he probably won't get to 225, let alone 250, 275 or 300. Next-best is Roy Halladay with 149, and while the Phillies will hit for him, he'll also give up a few homers at Citizens Bank Park, so his chances of 300 Wins are not good.
3000 Strikeouts
Pettitte is the active leader in this category as well, with 2154, making him also the only one with at least 2000. Of active pitchers, the likeliest to get to 3000 -- and, at the moment, it's not that likely -- are Johan Santana, CC Sabathia, and Halladay.
No comments:
Post a Comment