If President Barack Obama wins all the States that I've visited -- New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Delaware, Maryland, the District of Columbia, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida (but not Georgia), Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada and Arizona -- he beats Mitt Romney, 295 Electoral Votes to 243.
But if he only wins those States that I can remember setting foot in -- it doesn't count if I was only in one of their airports or highway rest areas, or if I was supposedly there before I can remember, and Canadian Provinces don't count, thus taking out Vermont, Indiana and Colorado -- he wins, 272-266.
If he wins only those States where I've seen a professional sporting event -- New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maryland, the District of Columbia, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin -- Romney wins 380-158.
If he wins only those States where I've seen a major league game, in any of the 4 major North American sports -- thus taking out Connecticut -- Romney wins 387-151.
If he wins States where I've seen Arsenal play on TV -- New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Delaware, Maryland, the District of Columbia and Virginia -- Romney wins 424-114.
If Obama wins only those States that have an MLB team, he wins 327-211.
If he wins only those States that have an NFL team, he wins 386-152.
If he wins only those States that have an NBA team, he wins 353-185.
If he wins only those States that have an NHL team, he wins 340-198.
If he wins all States with one of those 4, he wins 399-139.
Throw in MLS, and it becomes 405-133.
If he wins States where the most popular baseball team is an American League team, Romney wins 312-226. This year, the Houston Astros' last in the NL before switching, it would have been 350-188 in Romney's favor. In 2004, before the Montreal Expos became the Washington Nationals, it would have been 337-201 in the Republicans' favor. In 1997, before the last expansion and the shift of the Milwaukee Brewers to the NL, it would have been 356-182 in the Republicans' favor. Finally, if Obama won States whose last Pennant winner was an AL team, then he wins, 287-251.
But... if Obama wins all the States that John Kerry won in 2004, that's 246 -- he needs just 24 more.
He's going to win Nevada and New Mexico -- that gives him 257.
He then needs only 1 of these 3: Virginia, Ohio, Florida. What do you think Romney's chances are of winning all 3 of those? And even if he does, it might not be enough: If Obama loses those 3, but wins Iowa and Colorado (and he probably will win them both), that's 272, over the 270 threshold.
Don't believe anyone who says this election won't be decided before bedtime. This election will be decided at 11:00 Eastern Time tonight, when the Pacific Coast States of California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii -- all going to be easily won by Obama -- will close their polls. Even if Ohio (closing at 7:30) and Florida (8:00) are not yet put into Obama's column by then, he'll have the 270 he needs.
After 11:00, as it was 4 years ago (John McCain did so at 11:18 PM Eastern Time), it will just be a matter of when Romney gives his concession speech.
If, that is, you vote. For every office on the ballot, from the Presidency on down to local offices. Today, at 8:40 AM, I voted to re-elect President Barack Obama, Senator Bob Menendez, Congressman Rush Holt, my Middlesex County Freeholders, and East Brunswick Mayor David Stahl and his Township Council running mates. A straight Democratic ticket.
Get out and vote. This is the most important game of the year, and you can play. Suit up, and get on the field, and play.
Because if you do, you might win -- but if you don't, we all lose.