Monday, August 28, 2017

So Where Do the Yankees Stand, With 5 Weeks Left?

When the Yankees sandwiched losing 5 out of 7 to the Boston Red Sox around a 4-game sweep of the Mets, whose existence grows ever more pointless, I said the season was over.

Maybe not. Despite dropping the opener of this past weekend's series with the Seattle Mariners, and wearing those stupid uniforms, including the 1st-ever instance of the Yankees having names on the backs of their uniforms (a phenomenon introduced by the Chicago White Sox in 1960, so the Yankees went 57 years without doing it, before this ridiculous MLB promotion), they took the last 2, including yesterday's 10-1 laugher.

With 21 of the 26 weeks of the regular season to go, the Yankees are 70-59. They are 2 1/2 games behind the Red Sox in the American League Eastern Division, 2 in the loss column. The other 3 teams in the Division are all at least 8 games back, so it's down to the Yankees and the Red Sox, as God (or Abner Doubleday, or whoever really invented baseball) intended it.

The Yankees are currently holding one of the AL's Wild Card slots, but I do not trust Joe Girardi to manage and win a win-or-go-home game.

There are 33 games left in the regular season. That's 5 weeks. At home, the Yankees have 4 against the Red Sox (this coming Thursday through Saturday), 3 against the Cleveland Indians (starting tonight), 4 against the Baltimore Orioles, 3 against the Minnesota Twins, 3 against the Toronto Blue Jays, and a rainout makeup against the Kansas City Royals. On the road, the Yankees have 3 in Baltimore, 3 in Arlington against the Texas Rangers, 3 in Toronto, and 6 in St. Petersburg against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Yankees should be able to win 12 of the 18 home games, and 9 of the 15 road games. That would be 21 of the last 33, giving them 91 wins.

I've done the match: Since the start of Divisional Play in 1969, the average number of games won by the 2nd-place team in the AL East is 92, meaning the number needed to win the Division, more often than not, is 93. So, while the Division is still there for the taking, even if the Yankees do win 21 of the last 33, itself a 103-win pace, they will probably need to find at least 2 more wins (making for a 113-win pace).

Unless, of course, the Red Sox choke down the stretch, as they did in 1949, 1972, 1974, 1977, 1978, 2006, 2009 and 2011.

The Mets? Don't ask. They're 21 1/2 games behind the Washington Nationals in the National League East, and 14 games out of the 2nd NL Wild Card slot.

If the current standings hold to the end of the season, the Playoffs would be as follows, with the 1st team mentioned having home-field advantage over the 2nd team mentioned:

AL Wild Card Game: New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins.

AL Division Series: Houston Astros vs. Wild Card Winner, and Cleveland Indians vs. Boston Red Sox.

NL Wild Card Game: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies.

NL Division Series: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Wild Card Winner, and Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs.

Based on what I've seen thus far, my predictions would be as follows:

In the American League, the Yankees would beat the Twins. I base this on the fact that the twins seem to be the one team Yankees have no trouble with in the postseason. But then the Yankees would lose to the Astros, probably in 4 games.

The Indians have shown they can handle the Red Sox, both in this year's regular-season and in postseasons recent. And, given their experience, the Indians would probably beat the Astros and win their 1st-ever back-to-back Pennants.

In the National League, I'm not sure who would win between the Diamondbacks and the Rockies, but neither of them would stand much of a chance against the Dodgers. The Cubs would beat the Nationals, simply because the Nationals always choke when they reach the postseason. Funny, we used to say that about the Cubs. Not  anymore!

And while the Dodgers are no longer under the curse of Donnie Baseball, they still haven't won a Pennant since 1988. The Cubs have.

They have the edge in experience, and until Clayton Kershaw can prove that he can pitch and win in the postseason, the comparisons of him to Sandy Koufax, or any other great Dodger pitcher, or any other great pitcher, period, are ridiculous.

Yes, I am predicting a World Series rematch between the Cubs and the Indians. The difference this time is that the Cubs do not have Aroldis Chapman as the closer. At this point, I don't know if that's a plus or a minus.

But that's not important at this point. What matters to me is that the Yankees are on course to at least make the Playoffs, but they have not won a postseason game since the 2012 Division Series, and have not won a League Championship Series game since 2010.

That's 7 years without making a serious run at the Pennant. That is too long. Of they do not do so again this year, there is absolutely no excuse not to fire Joe Girardi as field manager and Brian Cashman as general manager. If the Yankees do not at least make the League Championship Series, both Girardi and Cashman need to be fired and replaced with competent people.

I can forgive trying and failing. I cannot accept what has been done thus far. Building for next year is no longer enough. We have had enough "next year's." I want to win this year. Show me you're trying to win this year. Simply settling for the wild card is not enough.

Back when we still liked her, Susan Sarandon taught us, "It's a long season, and you've got to trust it." This already feels like a long season, even though we're still in the running.

An even older saying says, "A baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint" -- if you'll pardon the mixing of sports metaphors. The problem with that statement is, once September arrives, the season becomes a sprint.

Runners, take your mark.

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