Top 5 Reasons You Can't Blame Team Management Shutting Stephen Strasburg Down for the Washington Nationals Losing the 2012 NLDS

Stephen Strasburg (left) and Davey Johnson

October 12, 2012, 10 years ago: The biggest game in Washington baseball in 79 years is Game 5 of the National League Division Series at Nationals Park. The Washington Nationals lead the St. Louis Cardinals, 7-5 going into the 9th inning. But Nats reliever Drew Storen implodes, allowing a double to Carlos Beltrán, a walk to Yadier Molina, another walk to David Freese, a single to Daniel Descalso, a stolen base by Descalso, and a single to Pete Kozma.

The Nats go down 1-2-3 in the bottom of the 9th, and the Cards win, 9-7, and advance to the NL Championship Series. The Nats went from having, according to Baseball-Reference.com, a 93 percent chance of winning the game to losing it.

Concerned about putting too much stress on his arm after coming back from Tommy John surgery at the start of the season, the Nats had shut down ace pitcher Stephen Strasburg for the season after September 7, at which point he had pitched 159 innings. I wonder what Nats management would have given to have Strasburg pitch to just 1 batter: Descalso, when there were 2 outs and the score was still 7-5.

Keeping Strasburg off the postseason roster was a major blunder. It took the Nats another 7 years to get their 1st postseason series win since they were the 1981 Montreal Expos. Nats manager Davey Johnson, who previously managed the New York Mets to win the 1986 World Series, later said that, with Strasburg, the Nats would have gone all the way.

A major blunder. Right? That's why the Nats lost this series, right? Right? Or... Was it the right thing to do?

Top 5 Reasons You Can't Blame Team Management Shutting Stephen Strasburg Down for the Washington Nationals Losing the 2012 National League Division Series

5. No Guarantee. Even if Strasburg had started that game, and had been brilliant, and felt no pain, would the Nats' bullpen have held? In the history we know, they didn't. If, instead of starting, he had come in to pitch the 9th inning only, would he have held the lead? Maybe not. After all, at that point, he had made 45 career appearances, none in relief. Through the 2022 season, he's made 247, still none in relief. Some guys can make the adjustment. (Example: Mike Mussina, 2003 American League Championship Series, Game 7.) Many can't.

And if he had helped the Nats win that series? Would they have beaten the San Francisco Giants in the NLCS? Probably not: As the Cards showed, while experience isn't everything, it does matter, and the Giants had won the World Series only 2 years earlier. And did again, beating the Cards in 7 games, and then sweeping the Detroit Tigers. And then did it again, 2 years after that. The Nats, even with Strasburg pitching without pain, might not have beaten the Giants in the 2012 NLCS.

4. The Umpires. Home plate umpire Alfonso Marquez gave David Freese 2 gifts with 2 strikes on him in the top of the 9th inning: A generous check-swing for ball 3, backed up by 1st base umpire Ed Hickox; and a very close ball 3 on the next pitch, with the next pitch being a bases-loading ball 4, followed by Daniel Descalso's game-tying single and Pete Kozma's game-winning single. The Nats did a little bit of choking, but the umps did a little bit of screwing-over as well.

3. The Cardinals Were Better. Ordinarily, "The opposition were better" would be Reason Number 1. Not this time, but it must still be said.

The Cards were the defending World Champions. True, they no longer had Albert Pujols. But they still had Carlos Beltrán and Rafael Furcal, both of whom started the All-Star Game; Yadier Molina, David Freese, Matt Holiday and Lance Lynn, all of whom also made the National League All-Star Team; Lance Berkman, Matt Carpenter, Chris Carpenter (no relation), Lance Lynn and Adam Wainwright, who didn't make the All-Star Game that season, but have made 17 of them between them; and a Hall of Fame manager in Tony La Russa.

From 2011 to 2015, the Cardinals made the Playoffs every season, going 32-29 in postseason games. Over that same stretch, the Nationals made it twice, going 3-6. The Nats wouldn't win a postseason series until 2019 -- and that remains the only season in which they've won any, though they did go all the way that season.

2. It Was Better for Strasburg. He was able to pitch more innings in 2013, 183. In 2014, he pitched 215 innings, still a career high, led the NL with 34 starts and 242 strikeouts, and the Nats won the NL Eastern Division again. He went 15-4 in both 2016 and 2017. In 2019, he went 18-6, leading the NL in wins -- and in innings pitched, with 209. And the Nats won the World Series, the 1st Pennant for a D.C. team in 86 years, and the 1st World Championship for a D.C. baseball team in 95 years.

Evidence matters. The evidence of 2013 to 2019 backs up the decision to shut him down. So does the evidence since: The wear and tear he was able to put on his arm has meant that he only pitched 5 innings in 2020 (which had little to do with it being a COVID-shortened year), 21 2/3rds innings in 2021, and 4 2/3rds innings in 2022.

Shutting him down early at age 24 meant that he was able to pitch very well from 25 to 31. But pitching him that much in those years meant that he has barely pitched at 32, 33 and 34. His career record is 113-62. Even if he's fine from 2023 to 2028, the year he turns 40, and wins an average of 15 games a year, that will only get him to 203 wins, and probably won't get him into the Hall of Fame.

1. It Was Better for the Nationals. In essence, the Nats traded a shot at a title in 2012 for a title in 2019. And the Cardinals who beat them in that 2012 NLDS? They've won only 1 Pennant (2013) and no World Series since. So which team was really better off?

VERDICT: Not Guilty.