Sunday, May 27, 2018

Is David Wright a Hall-of-Famer?

May 27, 2016, 2 years ago today: David Wright plays what is, for the moment, his last major league game. He goes 1-for-4. The Mets beat the Los Angeles Dodgers 6-5 at Citi Field.

What currently stands as his last hit was a home run off Chris Hatcher in the 4th inning, his 1,777th career hit -- all with the Mets, and a franchise record -- and his 242nd career home run. His last at-bat was a strikeout against Louis Coleman in the 7th.

He only played 1/4 of the 2015 season, including the World Series. His home run helped the Mets win Game 3 -- 1 of only 2 World Series games they've won since 1986 -- but his 14th inning error helped to cost them Game 1. He only played 1/3rd of the 2016 season. He didn't play any of the 2017 season. He hasn't played in the 1st 1/3rd of the 2018 season.

He is currently on the 60-Day Disabled List. He is going to meet with doctors in the next few days, to determine if, and when, he can return.

He will probably never play in another postseason game -- unless he both comes back and gets traded. He may never play in another regular-season game.

Wright is 35 years old. He is 7 years younger than Alex Rodriguez. Guess which one played in a regular-season Major League Baseball game more recently.

A-Rod's last game was on August 12, 2016.

D-Wright's last game was on May 27, 2016 -- 12 weeks earlier.

For about a year and a half following Derek Jeter's retirement, the Mets, their fans, and their willing accomplices in the media told us that, now, David Wright was "the face of New York baseball."

That ended a lot sooner than they thought it would.

*

Presuming he doesn't play again...

Does David Wright have the statistics, and the performance record, to be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame? He would be eligible in the election whose results would be announced in January 2022.

His lifetime batting average is .296, on-base percentage .376, slugging percentage .491, OPS+ 133. These are all very good stats, but not enough.

He has 1,777 hits, including 390 doubles and 244 home runs, with 970 RBIs. Very good totals, if you presume that it's the end of the 2014 season, he's just about to turn 32, and he still has a few good years left. But that's not the case.

He has been named to 7 All-Star Games. He has won 2 Gold Gloves. He has batted .300 8 times, has hit 20 or more home runs 6 times, hit 30 or more twice, and had 5 seasons of at least 100 RBIs. In 4 seasons, he has finished in the Top 10 in voting for the National League Most Valuable Player -- although never higher than 4th.

Postseason play? He helped the Mets win the NL Eastern Division in 2006, and batted .333 with 4 RBIs in the NL Division Series with the Los Angeles Dodgers. If they gave out MVP awards for Division Series, he might have won it.

However, he went just 4-for-25 in the subsequent NL Championship Series against the St. Louis Cardinals, although 1 of the hits was a home run. Still, his failure to hit better than that was a big reason why the Mets lost.

He didn't get back to the postseason until 2015. He didn't hit especially well in the NLDS against the Dodgers or the NLCS against the Chicago Cubs, although it ended up not mattering. In the World Series against the Kansas City Royals, he hit a home run to help win Game 3, but also made an error to help cost the Mets Game 1. He went 5-for-24. And the Mets got to the 2016 NL Wild Card Game without him. That hurts his "Valuable" argument.

Baseball-Reference.com has a Hall of Fame Monitor, on which 100 means the player is a "Likely HOFer." Wright is at 74. They have a Hall of Fame Standards, which is more weighted toward career stats, on which 50 is the figure for the "Average HOFer." Wright is at 36. By both standards, he falls well short.

They also have Similarity Scores, comparing statistically similar players, taking positions into account. According to them, Wright's 10 Most Similar Batters are Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Ken Caminiti, Mike Lowell, Matt Kemp, Travis Fryman, Dante Bichette, Ray Lankford, Eric Chavez and Larry Doby. All very good players, but, barring a late-career surge by either Ramirez, Zimmerman or Kemp, Doby will remain the only one of these in the Hall of Fame -- and he's in less because of actual on-field performance (as good as that was) than he is for his role as a pioneer in the reintegration of the sport.

They also have Most Similar By Ages. At ages 23 and 24, Wright statistically most resembled Dick Allen, whom a lot of people believe should be in the Hall of Fame, but isn't. At 25, 26 and 27, he most resembled Zimmerman. From 28 to 33, he most resembled Scott Rolen, who just became eligible this year, but is, at best, a borderline case.

Is there any additional factor that could put Wright over the top? He's (technically still) a current player, so he's not a pioneer. Nor is he a groundbreaker for any reason (race, ethnicity, equipment or playing style innovation). Is he a nice guy? He could win the Nobel Prize for Peace or Medicine, but it wouldn't make enough of a difference.

David Wright is not a Baseball Hall-of-Famer.

That's based purely on what he did, not on what he could have done if he hadn't gotten hurt, or on my admitted bias against the Mets.

He did what he could, for as long as he could. He just didn't do it long enough. And it looks like he won't get the chance to try to do it again.

That's a disappointment. Not a tragedy.

No comments: