Ballgame Over for Democrats? Not Yet

In 1988, Michael Dukakis got about 40 percent of the white vote, and 111 Electoral Votes. In 2008, Barack Obama got about 43 percent of the white vote, yet won 365 Electoral Votes. The difference was the rise in the Hispanic vote, especially in the Western States, like Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Arizona.

In 1988, all 4 of those States went Republican, as they had in most elections from 1968 onward. In 1992, Bill Clinton won all of them but Arizona. In 1996, Clinton won all of them except Colorado, becoming the 1st Democratic nominee to win Arizona since Harry Truman in 1948. (As Barry Goldwater's home State, it was the only State outside the South that didn't go for Lyndon Johnson in 1964.)

In 2000, out of those 4 States, Al Gore won only New Mexico. In 2004, John Kerry lost them all. But in 2008, Obama won all of them except Arizona, and probably would have won that if it hadn't been the home State of his opponent, John McCain. In 2012, again, Obama won all but Arizona. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won all but Arizona. In 2020, Joe Biden won all 4.

Obama turning those States in 2008 led to the thought that, by 2020, the Democrats could take Florida and Texas. If so, it would have been ballgame over for the Republicans -- and also for the Electoral Vote, because the only things saving them from total wipeout were Florida and Texas, so they would have supported scrapping it.

Now we see that Florida and Texas are lost causes. And if the Republicans can hold the Hispanic male vote in 2028, that means the Democrats can no longer count on the cities to save certain States for them, and it's ballgame over for them.

What can Democrats do between now and November 7, 2028? First, watch as Trump's policies hurt everybody. Second, show the Hispanic men that those policies have particularly hurt them and their families. And nominate someone who can, both literally and figuratively, speak their language. Then, the Democrats can get back to where they were from 2008 tl 2020.