February 15, 1933: Fear Itself

Anton Cermak (left) and Franklin Roosevelt

February 15, 1933, 90 years ago: An assassination attempt is made against President-elect Franklin D. Roosevelt, at Bayfront Park in Miami. The shooter, an Italian immigrant named Giuseppe Zangara, missed him, but hit Mayor Anton Cermak of Chicago, who died on March 6. Zangara was executed 14 days later.

Had the attempt succeeded, Vice President-elect John Nance Garner would have become President on March 4. There would have been an attempt to ease the Great Depression, but it wouldn’t have been the New Deal. The Depression would still have been going on in 1941, and there would have been no effort from whoever was President at that point to oppose Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan, including no Atlantic Charter with Britain. The Nazis would have beaten Britain, likely without attacking the Soviet Union.

This would have set up a Cold War against the Soviets, with the U.S., the Nazis and the Japanese on the same side. And of those 3 big nations on that side, the U.S. would be the weakest, since it would still be in a post-Depression hangover.
 
This likely means no civil rights movement. Jackie Robinson is a forgotten former UCLA running back. Martin Luther King dies in a Southern jail sometime between 1955 and 1968. There might have been a President Kennedy, but it would have been Joe Jr., especially since, in this case, Joe Sr. would not have been disgraced for supporting the Nazis. And, aside from being the 1st Catholic President, Joe Jr. wouldn't have had the kind of impact that the President Kennedy that we know had. The Nazis would have gotten to space first and to the Moon first.
 

Rock and roll is a fad that dies out by 1960. Elvis Presley becomes a renowned country singer, but not the "King" of anything. John Lennon is one of many British rockers we know who, without the outlet of rock, end up in jail. Paul McCartney becomes a minor figure outside Britain. Bob Dylan is a quirky folksinger who doesn’t really catch on in mainstream America. Mick Jagger is a frustrated economics professor. Elton John and Billy Joel remain piano players in lounges. Bruce Springsteen is a mechanic. Madonna is a waitress who used to dance on Broadway.

Eventually, the Soviets' part in the Cold War is to launch insurgencies in the colonies that Germany took from Britain, France and the rest in Africa; and Japan took from them in Asia. This means that the Nazis, the Japanese, and, at their insistence, the U.S. fight the Vietnam War, and each is weakened by it, but not defeated. The Soviet Union falls on schedule in 1991. And then there were 3. But America is still a backwater compared to the Nazi-led European Union and the Empire of Japan.

Rights for women? A struggle few accept. Rights for black people and other nonwhites? A nonstarter. Rights for gay people? We don't even talk about that kind of people, because we don't talk about that kind of behavior. Social Security? Medicare? Medicaid? OSHA? The Environmental Protection Agency? What the hell are those things?

Donald Trump has never become President. He's never needed to run for it. He's thrilled with how America is run. It's a nation where rich white men benefit, and everyone else lives in fear.

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But Zangara did not hit Roosevelt, and the only thing we had to fear was fear itself.