Monday, September 4, 2017

Have the Yankees Saved the Season?

Before this series with the American League Eastern Division-leading Boston Red Sox, I said that the Yankees needed to take at least 3 out of 4 to stay alive in the Division race.

Mission accomplished. Next mission: Make sure said preceding mission was not in vain.

On Thursday night, CC Sabathia pitched like an ace. Perhaps even more important than that, he showed that the biggest part of his body isn't his gut, or his head, or his mouth, but his spine. Something the Yankees have shown precious little of against the Red Sox since October 17, 2004. And the Yankees got the runs they needed, beating The Scum 6-2. Things were looking up.

On Friday night, they seemed to come crashing down. Sonny Gray pitched decently, but the Yankees couldn't hit Doug Fister, and lost 4-1.

On Saturday afternoon, Masahiro Tanaka took the ball, and matters, into his hands, and pitched like an ace. And the Yankees gave him the runs he needed to beat Drew Pomeranz, winning 5-1.

And then, last night, Luis Severino pitched like an ace. And the Yankees hit 3 home runs off Boston's much-hyped free agent acquisition, Chris Sale: Chase Headley in the 3rd inning, and, in the 4th, the 1st back-to-back jacks Sale had given up all season, to Matt Holliday and Todd Frazier. Sale didn't get out of the 5th inning. Aaron Judge finally broke his home run drought, unleashing the boomstick for his 38th dinger of the season. Yankees 9, Red Sox 2.

So long, Scum. This is the last time we'll be meeting in the regular season, although a Playoff matchup is possible.

*

So here's where things stand, with 21 of the Major League Baseball regular season's 25 weeks in the books:

* The Yankees trail the Red Sox by 3 1/2 games in the AL East, 3 in the loss column. My guideline is that if you have more weeks left than games behind, you have a chance; if you have more games behind than weeks left, forget it. The Yankees are still under the threshold.

* The Yankees still stand to be the home team in the AL Wild Card Game. As usual, I don't trust Joe Girardi to manage a win-or-go-home game, hence the importance of winning the Division: At the absolute worst, the Yankees would not have the home field advantage in the AL Division Series, but they would still have a margin for error, as it's a best-3-out-of-5.

* If the current MLB standings hold to the end of the season, the Playoff matchups would be as follows, with the team having home field advantage listed first: Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins, winner facing Houston Astros; Cleveland Indians vs. Boston Red Sox; Arizona Diamondbacks (who have won 10 straight) vs. Colorado Rockies, winner facing Los Angeles Dodgers; Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs.

* The Mets are 14 games out of the National League Wild Card, and David Wright is ending his rehab assignment and going into surgery again. His career may be over. The Curse of Kevin Mitchell strikes again.

* The Yankees have 26 games remaining. In order:

* Starting with today's Labor Day matinee, 3 away to the Baltimore Orioles. And the Baltimore Bandbox might be just what the doctor ordered for our sluggers.

* After a day off on Thursday, 3 in Arlington against the Texas Rangers.

* 3 in St. Petersburg against the Tampa Bay Rays.

* 4 at home to the Orioles.

* 3 at home to the Minnesota Twins.

* After a day off, 3 away to the Toronto Blue Jays.

* Home for a rainout makeup against the Kansas City Royals, the game that forced New York City FC to move a "home" game to East Hartford, Connecticut. (After all their fans' snipes about being the true "New York" team because the New York Red Bulls play home games in New Jersey, they will never live that down.)

* 3 at home to the Rays.

* And closing with 3 at home to the Jays.

Having those last 7 games at home may well help, although the Red Sox, with 25 games left, will also have their last 7 at home, but their last 4 will be against the Playoff-bound Astros, who just bolstered their starting rotation with the addition of Justin Verlander, whom Brian Cashman wasn't willing to go after.

So the Yankees have 14 home games, and 12 away games. If they split the away games, 6-6; and, in the home games, take 3 out of 4 vs. the O's; 2 out of 3 vs. the Twins, Rays and Jays; and the 1 vs. the Royals... 16-10 the rest of the way, hardly an unreasonable proposition...

That would give the Yankees 89 wins. That would mean that, for the Yankees to win the Division, the Red Sox would have to go 11-14, .440, the rest of the way. And, with no games left against the Sox, the Yankees have no control over that.

Then again, the Sox' last 4 games are against the Astros. If the Astros take 3 out of 4, then the Sox would have to go 10-11 otherwise. That's certainly possible.

Have the Yankees saved the season with their 3-of-4 performance against The Scum? Stay tuned.

Here's the projected starting pitchers for the Baltimore series:

* Today, 2:05 PM: Jordan Montgomery vs. Dylan Bundy.

* Tomorrow, 7:05: Sabathia vs. Jeremy Hellickson.

* Wednesday, 7:05: Gray vs. Kevin Gausman.

Come on you Bombers!

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