Predictions are a difficult thing. As the great political reporter Jack Germond taught us, You should never view the future as a straight-line projection of the present. "It never is," he said. And he was right: Things can happen.
In baseball terms, this can mean any number of things:
* Unheralded players can suddenly get good.
* Good players can suddenly lose their stuff.
* Players can get hurt.
* Players can develop off-field issues.
* Arguments can develop between players, between players and managers, between either and team management.
* Trades can be made -- as we Yankee Fans saw with Brian Cashman's surrender moves in late July 2016.
* A trade's effect on a team can be good or bad.
* So can a manager's firing and replacement.
* And, on occasion, tragedies can occur. We Yankee Fans know this, having lost Thurman Munson to a midseason plane crash in 1979. And we just passed the 25th Anniversary of the boating accident at Little Lake Nellie, Florida, that killed Cleveland Indians pitchers Steve Olin and Tim Crews in 1993.
So, with that in mind, here we go:
* American League Eastern Division: The Yankees came into Spring Training with huge holes at 2nd base and 3rd base. Cashman caused those holes. He has apparently filled them, with, respectively, Neil Walker and Brandon Drury. Otherwise, the Yankees are loaded as hell. The big questions are, "Will they stay healthy?" (Greg Bird is already hurt, and will miss the start of the season), and, "Will Cashman resist the urge to trade a good player for a bunch of 'prospects'?"
There is lots of talent on the other teams, with the exception of the Tampa Bay Rays, for whom this could be a miserable season. The Boston Red Sox can never be counted out as long as John Henry has money to spend and their players don't care about rules. The Baltimore Orioles can hit. And the Toronto Blue Jays remain pesky even when they're not good. But I expect the Yankees to win at least 95 games and take the Division.
* American League Central Division: The Cleveland Indians, having won the last 2 titles, remain the favorites. The Minnesota Twins look like the Wild Card is their best bet. The Kansas City Royals' moment appears over, while the Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers need to rebuild.
* American League Western Division: The Houston Astros go into this season as something they've never been before: Defending World Champions. They have the pitching to go all the way again. They won the Division by 21 games last season, and while the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have some talent, I don't see either the Oakland Athletics, the Seattle Mariners or the Texas Rangers making a run.
* National League Eastern Division: This is Bryce Harper's walk year, and he will be heavily motivated to secure the biggest contract in baseball history. Will that be enough to make him focus on helping the Washington Nationals win not only another Division title, but, for the 1st time in franchise history (unless you count the strike-forced 1981 NL East series won by the Montreal Expos), a postseason series?
The Philadelphia Phillies have spent big to rebuild, but it may require another year of rebuilding before they're serious contenders. The Miami Marlins are going nowhere -- except, maybe, Montreal. The Atlanta Braves can never be counted out.
And then there's the Mets. Today, in his 1st-ever press conference in English, Yoenis Cespedes said that this Met team was better than the Pennant-winners of 2015. Presumably, he was subsequently tested for drugs.
* National League Central Division: This could be the strongest Division in baseball. The Chicago Cubs have made the postseason 3 years in a row, something they hadn't done since 1906-08. They should be considered favorites to make it 4. But their geographic rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals and the Milwaukee Brewers, should be hot on their trails. The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cincinnati Reds were both below .500 last season, but either could surprise.
* National League Western Division: The Los Angeles Dodgers were 1 win away from their 1st World Championship since 1988, and Magic Johnson hasn't given up, bringing back Matt Kemp. As is usually the case when the Dodgers are good, their pitching will keep them in the chase.
The Arizona Diamondbacks, with the threat of a lease-caused move hanging over their heads, have improved markedly. The Colorado Rockies are decent. The San Francisco Giants bottomed out, but have the resources, and a few remaining 2010-12-14 World Champion players, to rebuild. The San Diego Padres don't look like a threat to do much.
* American League Playoffs: Boston eliminates Baltimore in the Wild Card Game. The Yankees finally get postseason revenge on the Red Sox in the ALDS, while Terry Francona finds a way to help Cleveland dethrone Houston. The Yankees experience a letdown after beating The Scum, and lose the ALCS to the Indians.
* National League Playoffs: St. Louis surprises Arizona in the Wild Card Game, and surprises no one by ending Harper's D.C. tenure in the NLDS. L.A. has more pitching than Chicago, and the Cubbies are stymied. Clayton Kershaw has another postseason meltdown, and the Cards beat the Bums.
* World Series: I may end up looking as foolish as Sports Illustrated did with their 1987 and 2015 Baseball Preview Issues, but I'm picking Cleveland over St. Louis in 6.
If it goes 7, though, there's no way the Indians win.
I hope I'm wrong. I hope there's no long-term injury, no bonehead Cashman trade, and no post-Sox letdown, and the Yankees can win Title 28.
But I am a Yankee Fan raised on the 1979-95 drought, following the 1976-78 glory. I know to hope for joy, but also to prepare for misery.
*
Hours until the Yankees open the 2018 Major League Baseball season: 21, tomorrow, at 3:37 PM, away to the Toronto Blue Jays, at the Rogers Centre. We are ready to go for Title 28.
Days until the New York Red Bulls play again: 3, this Saturday afternoon, at 1:00, away to Orlando City. They have also advanced to the Semifinal of the CONCACAF Champions League, against Club Deportivo Guadalajara, a.k.a. "Chivas," on April 3 at Red Bull Arena and April 10 at Estadio Chivas, in Jalisco, outside Guadalajara, Mexico.
Days until the New Jersey Devils next play a local rival: 3, this
Saturday night, at 7:00, home to the New York Islanders. They play the New York Rangers at home the following Tuesday. They won't play the Philadelphia Flyers again during the regular season, although a Playoff matchup is possible.
Days until The Arsenal play again, 4, on Easter Sunday, at 8:30 AM our time, a Premier League game, home to Staffordshire club Stoke City. Arsenal have also advanced to the Quarterfinal of the UEFA Europa League, having beaten Italian giants AC Milan, and will play Russian club CSKA Moscow, the club whose sports teams were once sponsored by the Soviet Red Army.
Days until the Yankees' 2018 home opener: 5, this coming Monday afternoon, at 1:00, against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Days until the next Yankees-Red Sox series begins: 13, on Tuesday, April 10, at Fenway Park.
Days until the Red Bulls next play a "derby": 38, on Saturday afternoon, May 5, home to New York City FC. Their 1st game against the Philadelphia Union will be on Saturday night, May 26, at Red Bull Arena in Harrison. Their 1st game against the New England Revolution will be on Saturday night, June 2, at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro. Their 1st game against D.C. United, and their 1st game ever at the new Audi Field, will be on Wednesday night, July 25.
Days until the U.S. national soccer team plays again: 59, a "friendly" against Bolivia, at Talen Energy Stadium in Chester, Pennsylvania, home of the Philadelphia Union, on Memorial Day, Monday, May 28. Last night, they defeated Paraguay 1-0 at Sahlen's Stadium in the Raleigh suburb of Cary, North Carolina. After the Bolivia game, there will be a trip to Europe, to play Ireland in Dublin on June 2, and France in Lyon on June 9. These 3 games should have been warmups for the World Cup. Alas...
Days until the next World Cup kicks off in Russia: 78, on June 14. A little over 11 weeks. But the U.S. team won't be playing. At least now, Donald Trump doesn't have to choose, and can root for his favorite country, the host nation, Russia.
Days until the 2018 trading deadline, after which we won't have to fear Yankee general manager Brian Cashman trading any proven good players for "prospects": 125, on Tuesday, July 31. A little over 4 months.
Days until the next North London Derby (after this one): Unknown, but not until next season. The Premier League season opener will be on Saturday, August 11, but you never see a derby on the opening weekend. So, more than 136 days.
Days until September 2018 roster call-ups, when we can finally start to expect seeing most of these wonderful "prospects" that Yankee general manager Brian Cashman wanted: 157. A little over 5 months.
Days until Rutgers University plays football again: 157, on Saturday, September 1, home to Texas State University.
Days until East Brunswick High School plays football again: Unknown. The 2018 schedule hasn't been released yet. But the season opener is usually on the 1st Friday in September. that would be September 7, which is 163 days from now.
Days until the next Congressional election, when we can elect a Democratic Congress that can impeach and remove Donald Trump from the Presidency: 223, on November 6. A little over 7 months.
Days until the next Rutgers-Penn State game: 234, on Saturday, November 17, at High Point Solutions Stadium in Piscataway, New Jersey.
Days until the next East Brunswick-Old Bridge Thanksgiving high school football game: 239, on Thursday, November 22. A little over 8 months.
Days until a Democratic Congress can convene, and the impeachment process can begin: 282, on Thursday, January 3, 2019. A little under 10 months.
Days until the Baseball Hall of Fame vote is announced, electing Mariano Rivera: 302, on January 23, 2019. A little over 10 months.
Days until the next Women's World Cup kicks off: 437, on June 7, 2019, in France. A little over a year, or a little under 15 months. The U.S. team, as 3-time and defending Champions, has, as usual, a better chance than the men's team would have had in 2018 anyway.
Days until my 50th Birthday, at which point I can join AARP and get discounts for travel and game tickets: 632, on December 18, 2019. Under 2 years, or a little under 21 months.
Days until the Baseball Hall of Fame vote is announced, electing Derek Jeter: 667, on January 22, 2020. A little under 2 years, or a little under 22 months.
Days until the next Summer Olympics begins in Tokyo, Japan: 851, on July 24, 2020. Under 2 1/2 years, or a little under 28 months.
Days until the next Presidential election, when we can dump the Trump-Pence regime and elect a real Administration: 954, on November 3, 2020. A little over 2 1/2 years, or a little over 31 months.
Days until Liberation Day: 1,032, at noon on January 20, 2021. Under 3 years, or a little under 34 months. Note that this is liberation from the Republican Party, not just from Donald Trump. Having Mike Pence as President wouldn't be better, just differently bad, mixing theocracy with plutocracy, rather than mixing kleptocracy with plutocracy.
Days until the next Winter Olympics (after the current one in Pyeongchang, Korea) begins in Beijing, China: 1,409, on February 4, 2022. Under 4 years, or a little over 46 months.
Days until the next World Cup for which the American team will be eligible is scheduled to kick off: 1,704, on November 21, 2022, in Qatar. Under 5 years, or under 56 months. The charges of corruption against Qatar may yet mean that they will lose the tournament, in which case it will be moved to a nation where it would not be too hot to play it in June and July.
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